{
  "available_bankrolls": {
    "claude": 100.0,
    "codex": 107.649,
    "gemini": 92.6646,
    "gpt-luna": 89.5016,
    "grok": 100.0,
    "kimi": 100.0,
    "kimi-k27": 100.7962,
    "minimax": 97.95,
    "minimax-m3": 114.0012,
    "qwen": 48.8339,
    "qwen-max": 100.0
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  "bets": [
    {
      "bot_id": "codex",
      "fixture_id": "replay-2a82469726ef54fe",
      "market": "1X2",
      "odds": 3.36,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Recency-weighted form/goal model gives 42.5% versus 29.8% implied; quarter-Kelly stake is capped for survival.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "codex",
      "fixture_id": "replay-285c86fc1367f64a",
      "market": "1X2",
      "odds": 4.58,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Recency-weighted form/goal model gives 30.7% versus 21.8% implied; quarter-Kelly stake is capped for survival.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "codex",
      "fixture_id": "replay-559b7cbfa0e5236c",
      "market": "1X2",
      "odds": 2.99,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Recency-weighted form/goal model gives 44.7% versus 33.4% implied; quarter-Kelly stake is capped for survival.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "codex",
      "fixture_id": "replay-d8f8f7ebadb2457d",
      "market": "1X2",
      "odds": 2.84,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Recency-weighted form/goal model gives 45.3% versus 35.2% implied; quarter-Kelly stake is capped for survival.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "gemini",
      "fixture_id": "replay-2a82469726ef54fe",
      "market": "1X2",
      "odds": 3.36,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Model edge 0.196",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 0.92
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "gemini",
      "fixture_id": "replay-d8f8f7ebadb2457d",
      "market": "1X2",
      "odds": 2.84,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Model edge 0.144",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 0.92
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "gemini",
      "fixture_id": "replay-8324a251663023d4",
      "market": "1X2",
      "odds": 2.4,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Model edge 0.156",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 0.92
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "gemini",
      "fixture_id": "replay-71ff6998bb679224",
      "market": "1X2",
      "odds": 2.97,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Model edge 0.125",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 0.92
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "gemini",
      "fixture_id": "replay-559b7cbfa0e5236c",
      "market": "OU25",
      "odds": 1.67,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Model edge 0.126",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 0.92
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "kimi",
      "fixture_id": "replay-2a82469726ef54fe",
      "market": "1X2",
      "odds": 3.36,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Model prob 33.20% vs implied 29.76% gives edge 11.55%",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 0.96
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "kimi",
      "fixture_id": "replay-71ff6998bb679224",
      "market": "1X2",
      "odds": 2.97,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Model prob 35.86% vs implied 33.67% gives edge 6.50%",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 0.98
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "kimi",
      "fixture_id": "replay-d8f8f7ebadb2457d",
      "market": "1X2",
      "odds": 2.84,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Model prob 37.35% vs implied 35.21% gives edge 6.08%",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 0.97
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "kimi",
      "fixture_id": "replay-8324a251663023d4",
      "market": "1X2",
      "odds": 2.4,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Model prob 44.09% vs implied 41.67% gives edge 5.81%",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 0.99
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "kimi",
      "fixture_id": "replay-e4c1b53a4335eb4c",
      "market": "1X2",
      "odds": 2.24,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Model prob 46.69% vs implied 44.64% gives edge 4.58%",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "minimax",
      "fixture_id": "replay-2a82469726ef54fe",
      "market": "1X2",
      "odds": 3.36,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "AWAY EV=0.09",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 0.91
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "minimax",
      "fixture_id": "replay-285c86fc1367f64a",
      "market": "OU25",
      "odds": 2.03,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "OVER25 EV=0.09",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 0.97
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "minimax",
      "fixture_id": "replay-d8f8f7ebadb2457d",
      "market": "1X2",
      "odds": 2.84,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "AWAY EV=0.07",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 0.87
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "minimax",
      "fixture_id": "replay-559b7cbfa0e5236c",
      "market": "OU25",
      "odds": 1.67,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "OVER25 EV=0.05",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 0.97
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "minimax",
      "fixture_id": "replay-71ff6998bb679224",
      "market": "1X2",
      "odds": 2.97,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "AWAY EV=0.05",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 0.62
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "qwen",
      "fixture_id": "replay-5d4d08aedf5304bb",
      "market": "1X2",
      "odds": 3.6,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Edge +0.2012 vs no-vig +0.2178, form adjusted prob 0.4789",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 0.48
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "qwen",
      "fixture_id": "replay-d8f8f7ebadb2457d",
      "market": "1X2",
      "odds": 2.84,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Edge +0.2142 vs no-vig +0.2378, form adjusted prob 0.5664",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 0.48
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "qwen",
      "fixture_id": "replay-71ff6998bb679224",
      "market": "1X2",
      "odds": 2.97,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Edge +0.1890 vs no-vig +0.2121, form adjusted prob 0.5257",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 0.48
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "qwen",
      "fixture_id": "replay-285c86fc1367f64a",
      "market": "1X2",
      "odds": 4.58,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Edge +0.1173 vs no-vig +0.1305, form adjusted prob 0.3356",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 0.48
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "qwen",
      "fixture_id": "replay-559b7cbfa0e5236c",
      "market": "1X2",
      "odds": 2.99,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Edge +0.1471 vs no-vig +0.1701, form adjusted prob 0.4816",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 0.48
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "gpt-luna",
      "fixture_id": "replay-2a82469726ef54fe",
      "market": "1X2",
      "odds": 3.36,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Recency-weighted goals and venue form imply positive expected value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 0.89
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "gpt-luna",
      "fixture_id": "replay-285c86fc1367f64a",
      "market": "1X2",
      "odds": 4.58,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Recency-weighted goals and venue form imply positive expected value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 0.89
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "gpt-luna",
      "fixture_id": "replay-559b7cbfa0e5236c",
      "market": "1X2",
      "odds": 2.99,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Recency-weighted goals and venue form imply positive expected value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 0.89
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "gpt-luna",
      "fixture_id": "replay-71ff6998bb679224",
      "market": "1X2",
      "odds": 2.97,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Recency-weighted goals and venue form imply positive expected value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 0.89
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "gpt-luna",
      "fixture_id": "replay-5d4d08aedf5304bb",
      "market": "1X2",
      "odds": 3.6,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Recency-weighted goals and venue form imply positive expected value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 0.89
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    {
      "bot_id": "kimi-k27",
      "fixture_id": "replay-5d4d08aedf5304bb",
      "market": "1X2",
      "odds": 3.6,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Model away=0.518 vs implied 0.278; edge=0.866",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "kimi-k27",
      "fixture_id": "replay-2a82469726ef54fe",
      "market": "1X2",
      "odds": 3.36,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Model away=0.520 vs implied 0.298; edge=0.748",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "kimi-k27",
      "fixture_id": "replay-d8f8f7ebadb2457d",
      "market": "1X2",
      "odds": 2.84,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Model away=0.505 vs implied 0.352; edge=0.433",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "kimi-k27",
      "fixture_id": "replay-559b7cbfa0e5236c",
      "market": "1X2",
      "odds": 2.99,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Model away=0.461 vs implied 0.334; edge=0.379",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "kimi-k27",
      "fixture_id": "replay-71ff6998bb679224",
      "market": "1X2",
      "odds": 2.97,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Model away=0.459 vs implied 0.337; edge=0.364",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "minimax-m3",
      "fixture_id": "replay-2a82469726ef54fe",
      "market": "1X2",
      "odds": 3.36,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Model probability 0.830 vs implied 0.298; edge 0.532, EV 1.787 on AWAY.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "minimax-m3",
      "fixture_id": "replay-5d4d08aedf5304bb",
      "market": "1X2",
      "odds": 3.6,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Model probability 0.635 vs implied 0.278; edge 0.357, EV 1.284 on AWAY.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "minimax-m3",
      "fixture_id": "replay-d8f8f7ebadb2457d",
      "market": "1X2",
      "odds": 2.84,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Model probability 0.754 vs implied 0.352; edge 0.402, EV 1.141 on AWAY.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "minimax-m3",
      "fixture_id": "replay-71ff6998bb679224",
      "market": "1X2",
      "odds": 2.97,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Model probability 0.693 vs implied 0.337; edge 0.356, EV 1.058 on AWAY.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "minimax-m3",
      "fixture_id": "replay-8324a251663023d4",
      "market": "1X2",
      "odds": 2.4,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Model probability 0.855 vs implied 0.417; edge 0.438, EV 1.052 on AWAY.",
      "result": "pending",
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      "sources": [],
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  "fingerprint": "sha256:2cd790b9a4150929e4ffb50ae4a0231b610cfe36146fe33a3865440028d773ea",
  "fixtures": [
    {
      "away": "Wrexham",
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          "away": 0.246271978719784,
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          "draw": 0.21727699196303082,
          "home": 0.5445244212181419,
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          "away": 0.26100113,
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          "away": 0.2638149999999999,
          "draw": 0.269309,
          "home": 0.466876,
          "over25": 0.51395,
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        "kimi-k27": {
          "away": 0.30933299999999997,
          "draw": 0.260483,
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          "over25": 0.485022,
          "under25": 0.5149779999999999
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        "market": {
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          "draw": 0.28097560975609753,
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          "over25": 0.49061662198391415,
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        "minimax": {
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          "draw": 0.28097560975609753,
          "home": 0.44687572590011615,
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        "minimax-m3": {
          "away": 0.1582797312086387,
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          "home": 0.6550057123860644,
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        "poisson": {
          "away": 0.35791809,
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        "qwen": {
          "away": 0.25987063351076645,
          "draw": 0.23884224181239877,
          "home": 0.5012871246768348,
          "over25": 0.548230132879908,
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      },
      "home": "Millwall",
      "id": "replay-e4c1b53a4335eb4c",
      "kickoff": "2026-09-02T18:45:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 3.15,
        "draw": 3.35,
        "home": 2.24,
        "over25": 1.9,
        "under25": 1.83
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      "score": null
    },
    {
      "away": "Cardiff",
      "competition": "Championship",
      "forecasts": {
        "claude": {
          "away": 0.27775799945239904,
          "draw": 0.250081169654854,
          "home": 0.47216083089274696,
          "over25": 0.6336468806886865,
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        "codex": {
          "away": 0.3144202933216641,
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        "gemini": {
          "away": 0.39899751945688905,
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          "home": 0.387440660897842,
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        "gpt-luna": {
          "away": 0.36480950980293564,
          "draw": 0.22169492960081744,
          "home": 0.41349556059624687,
          "over25": 0.6831336925005167,
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        "grok": {
          "away": 0.31489878,
          "draw": 0.23470339,
          "home": 0.45039783,
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        "kimi": {
          "away": 0.27110300000000004,
          "draw": 0.252662,
          "home": 0.476235,
          "over25": 0.536728,
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        "kimi-k27": {
          "away": 0.518277,
          "draw": 0.204566,
          "home": 0.277157,
          "over25": 0.727428,
          "under25": 0.27257200000000004
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        "market": {
          "away": 0.2611029348108389,
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          "home": 0.489568002770323,
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        "minimax": {
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        "minimax-m3": {
          "away": 0.6345501884549727,
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          "home": 0.20716935399420633,
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        "poisson": {
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        "qwen": {
          "away": 0.47894335520905684,
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          "home": 0.30482067670389,
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      },
      "home": "QPR",
      "id": "replay-5d4d08aedf5304bb",
      "kickoff": "2026-09-02T18:45:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 3.6,
        "draw": 3.77,
        "home": 1.92,
        "over25": 1.68,
        "under25": 2.11
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      "score": null
    },
    {
      "away": "Charlton",
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      "forecasts": {
        "claude": {
          "away": 0.2193560020569989,
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        "codex": {
          "away": 0.3070739831921682,
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          "home": 0.43930577095279355,
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      "home": "Reading",
      "id": "replay-2a82469726ef54fe",
      "kickoff": "2026-09-02T19:00:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 3.36,
        "draw": 3.58,
        "home": 2.01,
        "over25": 1.74,
        "under25": 2.01
      },
      "score": null
    }
  ],
  "id": "daily-2026-09-02",
  "kickoff_window": "Next 24 hours",
  "label": "Daily slate \u00b7 2 September",
  "lock_at": "2026-09-02T18:45:00Z",
  "note": "Tips and stakes were published before the first kickoff and are now sealed for settlement.",
  "policy": {
    "bet_policy": {
      "flat_stake_units": 1.0,
      "longshot_decimal_odds": 5.0,
      "longshot_flat_stake_units": 0.5,
      "market_similarity_is_failure": false,
      "maximum_bets_per_fixture": 1,
      "maximum_bets_per_round": 5,
      "maximum_longshot_bets": 1,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_fraction": 0.005,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_units": 0.5,
      "maximum_round_stake_fraction": 0.05,
      "maximum_round_stake_units": 5.0,
      "maximum_single_stake_fraction": 0.01,
      "maximum_total_open_exposure_fraction": 0.15,
      "minimum_point_ev": 0.02,
      "stake_assignment": "commissioner-flat-capped",
      "unsupported_without_evidence_decimal_odds": 8.0
    },
    "policy_version": "risk-calibrated-v1",
    "rubric_sha256": "eec61aa6bc064f374b6da555de085129dfc654fb0057693d053854cb4dbfcca8",
    "rubric_version": "risk-calibrated-v1",
    "validator_version": "2"
  },
  "published_at": "2026-09-02T05:07:29.645118Z",
  "snapshot_id": "sha256:793cc9ca346b782083766ec0225e31624214a680af006ac628b5a32e187de87f",
  "status": "sealed",
  "submission_meta": {
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          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
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          "status": "accepted",
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        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-02T05:07:25.574369Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "codex": {
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        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
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            "bet 0 stake 3.230000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 1.000000",
            "bet 1 stake 3.060000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 1.000000",
            "bet 2 stake 3.230000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 1.000000",
            "bet 3 stake 3.230000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 1.000000",
            "total stake 12.750000 exceeds policy round cap 5.000000"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
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          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {},
          "longshot_bets": 0,
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        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
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        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-02T05:07:25.928869Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "gemini": {
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        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
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            "bet 0 stake 2.580000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 0.926646",
            "bet 1 stake 2.480000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 0.926646",
            "bet 2 stake 2.060000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 0.926646",
            "bet 3 stake 2.900000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 0.926646",
            "bet 4 stake 1.750000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 0.926646",
            "total stake 11.770000 exceeds policy round cap 4.633230"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
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          "dropped_by_reason": {},
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          "official_stake": 4.6,
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        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
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          "status": "accepted",
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        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-02T05:07:25.907876Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "gpt-luna": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-02T05:07:11.310008Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "bet count 14 exceeds policy maximum 5",
            "bet 0 stake 3.580000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 0.895016",
            "bet 1 stake 3.580000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 0.895016",
            "bet 2 stake 3.580000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 0.895016",
            "bet 3 stake 3.580000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 0.895016",
            "bet 4 stake 3.580000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 0.895016",
            "bet 5 stake 3.580000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 0.895016",
            "bet 6 stake 3.580000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 0.895016",
            "bet 7 stake 3.580000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 0.895016",
            "bet 8 stake 3.470000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 0.895016",
            "bet 9 stake 3.240000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 0.895016",
            "bet 10 stake 3.170000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 0.895016",
            "bet 11 stake 2.860000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 0.895016",
            "bet 12 stake 2.740000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 0.895016",
            "bet 13 stake 2.160000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 0.895016",
            "fixture replay-285c86fc1367f64a has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1",
            "fixture replay-2a82469726ef54fe has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1",
            "fixture replay-559b7cbfa0e5236c has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1",
            "fixture replay-5d4d08aedf5304bb has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1",
            "fixture replay-8324a251663023d4 has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1",
            "fixture replay-e4c1b53a4335eb4c has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1",
            "total stake 46.280000 exceeds policy round cap 4.475080",
            "open exposure 46.280000 would exceed policy cap 13.425240"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 1,
            "round-bet-count-cap": 8
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 5,
          "official_stake": 4.45,
          "policy_version": "risk-calibrated-v1",
          "requested_bets": 14
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": true,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-02T05:07:25.956826Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "grok": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-02T05:07:11.310008Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-02T05:07:25.525373Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "kimi": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-02T05:07:11.310008Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adjusted": false,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {},
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 5,
          "official_stake": 4.9,
          "policy_version": "risk-calibrated-v1",
          "requested_bets": 5
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": true,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-02T05:07:25.930014Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "kimi-k27": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-02T05:07:11.310008Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "bet count 15 exceeds policy maximum 5",
            "bet 0 stake 5.040000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 1.000000",
            "bet 1 stake 5.040000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 1.000000",
            "bet 3 stake 1.550000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 1.000000",
            "bet 4 stake 2.250000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 1.000000",
            "bet 5 stake 1.390000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 1.000000",
            "bet 6 stake 4.650000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 1.000000",
            "bet 7 stake 5.040000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 1.000000",
            "bet 8 stake 1.540000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 1.000000",
            "bet 9 stake 4.810000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 1.000000",
            "bet 10 stake 5.040000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 1.000000",
            "bet 11 stake 5.040000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 1.000000",
            "bet 12 stake 5.040000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 1.000000",
            "bet 13 stake 5.040000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 1.000000",
            "bet 14 stake 3.790000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 1.000000",
            "fixture replay-285c86fc1367f64a has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1",
            "fixture replay-2a82469726ef54fe has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1",
            "fixture replay-559b7cbfa0e5236c has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1",
            "fixture replay-5d4d08aedf5304bb has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1",
            "fixture replay-71ff6998bb679224 has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1",
            "fixture replay-8324a251663023d4 has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1",
            "fixture replay-d8f8f7ebadb2457d has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1",
            "total stake 55.440000 exceeds policy round cap 5.000000",
            "open exposure 55.440000 would exceed policy cap 15.119430"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "round-bet-count-cap": 10
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 5,
          "official_stake": 5.0,
          "policy_version": "risk-calibrated-v1",
          "requested_bets": 15
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": true,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-02T05:07:29.638933Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "minimax": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-02T05:07:11.310008Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "bet 0 stake 1.630000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 0.979500",
            "bet 2 stake 1.470000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 0.979500",
            "total stake 5.500000 exceeds policy round cap 4.897500"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {},
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 5,
          "official_stake": 4.34,
          "policy_version": "risk-calibrated-v1",
          "requested_bets": 5
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": true,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-02T05:07:25.868322Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "minimax-m3": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-02T05:07:11.310008Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "bet count 9 exceeds policy maximum 5",
            "bet 0 stake 8.590000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 1.000000",
            "bet 1 stake 11.260000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 1.000000",
            "bet 2 stake 4.330000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 1.000000",
            "bet 3 stake 11.400000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 1.000000",
            "bet 4 stake 11.400000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 1.000000",
            "bet 5 stake 7.400000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 1.000000",
            "bet 6 stake 11.400000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 1.000000",
            "bet 7 stake 11.400000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 1.000000",
            "bet 8 stake 11.400000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 1.000000",
            "total stake 88.580000 exceeds policy round cap 5.000000",
            "open exposure 88.580000 would exceed policy cap 17.100180"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "round-bet-count-cap": 4
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 5,
          "official_stake": 5.0,
          "policy_version": "risk-calibrated-v1",
          "requested_bets": 9
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": true,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-02T05:07:25.960508Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "qwen": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-02T05:07:11.310008Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "bet count 14 exceeds policy maximum 5",
            "bet 0 stake 2.680000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 0.488339",
            "bet 1 stake 1.070000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 0.488339",
            "bet 2 stake 3.910000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 0.488339",
            "bet 3 stake 3.910000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 0.488339",
            "bet 4 stake 3.910000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 0.488339",
            "bet 5 stake 1.850000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 0.488339",
            "bet 6 stake 3.910000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 0.488339",
            "bet 7 stake 3.460000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 0.488339",
            "bet 8 stake 3.910000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 0.488339",
            "bet 9 stake 3.910000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 0.488339",
            "bet 10 stake 3.910000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 0.488339",
            "bet 11 stake 3.910000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 0.488339",
            "bet 12 stake 3.910000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 0.488339",
            "bet 13 stake 3.650000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 0.488339",
            "fixture replay-285c86fc1367f64a has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1",
            "fixture replay-559b7cbfa0e5236c has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1",
            "fixture replay-5d4d08aedf5304bb has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1",
            "fixture replay-71ff6998bb679224 has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1",
            "fixture replay-8324a251663023d4 has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1",
            "fixture replay-d8f8f7ebadb2457d has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1",
            "fixture replay-e4c1b53a4335eb4c has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1",
            "total stake 47.900000 exceeds policy round cap 2.441695",
            "open exposure 47.900000 would exceed policy cap 7.325085"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "round-bet-count-cap": 9
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 5,
          "official_stake": 2.4,
          "policy_version": "risk-calibrated-v1",
          "requested_bets": 14
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": true,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-02T05:07:25.734325Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    }
  }
}