{
  "available_bankrolls": {
    "claude": 1000.0,
    "codex": 1000.0,
    "gemini": 967.86,
    "gpt-luna": 956.9,
    "grok": 1000.0,
    "grok-46": 1000.0,
    "kimi": 1000.0,
    "kimi-k27": 865.45,
    "minimax": 998.2624,
    "minimax-m3": 959.63,
    "muse-spark": 1000.0,
    "qwen": 1000.0,
    "qwen-max": 1000.0
  },
  "bets": [
    {
      "bot_id": "gpt-luna",
      "fixture_id": "replay-0ba1ca2f26851ad4",
      "market": "OU25",
      "odds": 1.89,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Recency-weighted goals and venue form imply positive expected value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 10.0
    }
  ],
  "fingerprint": "sha256:ba9edc238d767bb858b94b811991fd8a407e81c9fd143f25e50a8426d6d23d5d",
  "fixtures": [
    {
      "away": "Frosinone",
      "competition": "Serie A",
      "forecasts": {
        "claude": {
          "away": 0.33280984985599193,
          "draw": 0.2781178089430929,
          "home": 0.38907234120091516,
          "over25": 0.5009999133384004,
          "under25": 0.49900008666159956
        },
        "codex": {
          "away": 0.2700819137628567,
          "draw": 0.2734064683103415,
          "home": 0.4565116179268018,
          "over25": 0.496009584670383,
          "under25": 0.5039904153296171
        },
        "gemini": {
          "away": 0.3644766847169163,
          "draw": 0.26146934319546333,
          "home": 0.3740539720876203,
          "over25": 0.5178089481445635,
          "under25": 0.48219105185543654
        },
        "gpt-luna": {
          "away": 0.53863816079653,
          "draw": 0.22184632018542552,
          "home": 0.23951551901804452,
          "over25": 0.6066071418290331,
          "under25": 0.3933928581709669
        },
        "grok": {
          "away": 0.30267685,
          "draw": 0.27149453,
          "home": 0.42582862,
          "over25": 0.496,
          "under25": 0.504
        },
        "kimi": {
          "away": 0.30182787525935145,
          "draw": 0.2703211966113161,
          "home": 0.42785092812933245,
          "over25": 0.5136057760087189,
          "under25": 0.48639422399128107
        },
        "kimi-k27": {
          "away": 0.43015900000000007,
          "draw": 0.257502,
          "home": 0.312339,
          "over25": 0.498514,
          "under25": 0.501486
        },
        "market": {
          "away": 0.27215881122323404,
          "draw": 0.27942714742800884,
          "home": 0.448414041348757,
          "over25": 0.496,
          "under25": 0.5039999999999999
        },
        "minimax": {
          "away": 0.3054921445565673,
          "draw": 0.27942714742800895,
          "home": 0.41508070801542374,
          "over25": 0.4968,
          "under25": 0.5032
        },
        "minimax-m3": {
          "away": 0.8136210430980214,
          "draw": 0.13044582557897566,
          "home": 0.05593313132300295,
          "over25": 0.6010168707453661,
          "under25": 0.39898312925463386
        },
        "poisson": {
          "away": 0.40212047,
          "draw": 0.2827895,
          "home": 0.31509003,
          "over25": 0.40209029,
          "under25": 0.59790971
        },
        "qwen": {
          "away": 0.3093016683660912,
          "draw": 0.2794271474280089,
          "home": 0.4112711842058999,
          "over25": 0.49600000000000005,
          "under25": 0.504
        }
      },
      "home": "Genoa",
      "id": "replay-0ba1ca2f26851ad4",
      "kickoff": "2026-09-12T13:00:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 3.46,
        "draw": 3.37,
        "home": 2.1,
        "over25": 1.89,
        "under25": 1.86
      },
      "score": null
    }
  ],
  "id": "daily-2026-09-11-r3",
  "kickoff_window": "Next 24 hours",
  "label": "Daily slate \u00b7 12 September",
  "lock_at": "2026-09-12T13:00:00Z",
  "note": "Tips and stakes were published before the first kickoff and are now sealed for settlement.",
  "policy": {
    "bet_policy": {
      "evidence_status": "paper-risk-screen-not-validated-edge",
      "flat_stake_units": 10.0,
      "longshot_decimal_odds": 5.0,
      "longshot_flat_stake_units": 5.0,
      "market_similarity_is_failure": false,
      "maximum_bets_per_fixture": 1,
      "maximum_bets_per_round": 5,
      "maximum_decimal_odds": 3.0,
      "maximum_longshot_bets": 1,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_fraction": 0.005,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_units": 5.0,
      "maximum_market_probability_gap": 0.15,
      "maximum_round_stake_fraction": 0.05,
      "maximum_round_stake_units": 50.0,
      "maximum_single_stake_fraction": 0.01,
      "maximum_total_open_exposure_fraction": 0.15,
      "minimum_point_ev": 0.02,
      "stake_assignment": "commissioner-flat-capped",
      "starting_bankroll_units": 1000.0,
      "unsupported_without_evidence_decimal_odds": 8.0
    },
    "policy_version": "balanced-paper-v2",
    "rubric_sha256": "80cb7810d1fbd5a1602a90ae5401e8c31933db70f1d1a60d8349918093ff7887",
    "rubric_version": "balanced-paper-v2",
    "validator_version": "2"
  },
  "published_at": "2026-09-11T13:05:28.113339Z",
  "snapshot_id": "sha256:5692dbf4b5bd45a5ca7a3295070b580600d79b17860e9258ec2a5cbb8c76b22b",
  "status": "sealed",
  "submission_meta": {
    "claude": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-11T13:05:11.742092Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-11T13:05:24.633089Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "codex": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-11T13:05:11.742092Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-11T13:05:24.610819Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "gemini": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-11T13:05:11.742092Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "bet 0 outside-paper-price-band"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 0,
          "official_stake": 0.0,
          "policy_version": "balanced-paper-v2",
          "requested_bets": 1
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-11T13:05:28.110322Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback.",
      "policy_suppressed_bets": {
        "outside-paper-price-band": 1
      }
    },
    "gpt-luna": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-11T13:05:11.742092Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "bet 0 outside-paper-price-band",
            "bet 0 stake 38.280000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 10.000000",
            "bet 1 stake 31.500000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 10.000000",
            "fixture replay-0ba1ca2f26851ad4 has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1",
            "total stake 69.780000 exceeds policy round cap 50.000000"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 10.0,
          "policy_version": "balanced-paper-v2",
          "requested_bets": 2
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": true,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-11T13:05:24.610873Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback.",
      "policy_suppressed_bets": {
        "outside-paper-price-band": 1
      }
    },
    "grok": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-11T13:05:11.742092Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-11T13:05:24.594703Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "kimi": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-11T13:05:11.742092Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-11T13:05:24.610723Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "kimi-k27": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-11T13:05:11.742092Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "bet 0 outside-paper-price-band",
            "bet 0 stake 42.950000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.500000"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 0,
          "official_stake": 0.0,
          "policy_version": "balanced-paper-v2",
          "requested_bets": 1
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-11T13:05:24.703645Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback.",
      "policy_suppressed_bets": {
        "outside-paper-price-band": 1
      }
    },
    "minimax": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-11T13:05:11.742092Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "bet 0 outside-paper-price-band"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 0,
          "official_stake": 0.0,
          "policy_version": "balanced-paper-v2",
          "requested_bets": 1
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-11T13:05:24.609839Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback.",
      "policy_suppressed_bets": {
        "outside-paper-price-band": 1
      }
    },
    "minimax-m3": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-11T13:05:11.742092Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "bet 0 outside-paper-price-band",
            "bet 0 stake 95.960000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.893000",
            "total stake 95.960000 exceeds policy round cap 49.465000"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 0,
          "official_stake": 0.0,
          "policy_version": "balanced-paper-v2",
          "requested_bets": 1
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-11T13:05:24.609036Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback.",
      "policy_suppressed_bets": {
        "outside-paper-price-band": 1
      }
    },
    "qwen": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-11T13:05:11.742092Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "bet 0 outside-paper-price-band"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 0,
          "official_stake": 0.0,
          "policy_version": "balanced-paper-v2",
          "requested_bets": 1
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-11T13:05:24.614955Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback.",
      "policy_suppressed_bets": {
        "outside-paper-price-band": 1
      }
    }
  }
}