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"80cb7810d1fbd5a1602a90ae5401e8c31933db70f1d1a60d8349918093ff7887", "rubric_version": "balanced-paper-v2", "validator_version": "2" }, "published_at": "2026-09-11T14:05:25.084565Z", "snapshot_id": "sha256:8c831ae886ccc669b2ec9e1e2b85583767941b9a568dfe72a9ae09c3497e3db2", "status": "sealed", "submission_meta": { "claude": { "decision_time": "2026-09-11T14:05:11.325487Z", "execution_provenance": { "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract", "adapter": { "exit_code": 0, "status": "valid", "timed_out": false, "valid": true, "validation_status": "live" }, "commissioner_fallback": { "bets_preserved": false, "status": "accepted", "validation_status": "live" } }, "generated_at": "2026-09-11T14:05:21.087082Z", "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback." }, "codex": { "decision_time": "2026-09-11T14:05:11.325487Z", "execution_provenance": { "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract", "adapter": { "exit_code": 0, "status": "valid", "timed_out": false, "valid": true, "validation_status": "live" }, "commissioner_fallback": { "bets_preserved": false, "status": "accepted", "validation_status": "live" } }, "generated_at": "2026-09-11T14:05:21.115418Z", "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback." }, "gemini": { "decision_time": "2026-09-11T14:05:11.325487Z", "execution_provenance": { "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract", "adapter": { "exit_code": 0, "status": "invalid", "timed_out": false, "valid": false, "validation_errors": [ "bet 0 outside-paper-price-band" ], "validation_status": "failed" }, "bet_policy_adjustment": { "adjusted": true, "applied": true, "dropped_by_reason": { "outside-paper-price-band": 1 }, "longshot_bets": 0, "official_bets": 4, "official_stake": 39.48, "policy_version": "balanced-paper-v2", "requested_bets": 5 }, "commissioner_fallback": { "bets_preserved": true, "status": "accepted", "validation_status": "live" } }, "generated_at": "2026-09-11T14:05:22.928090Z", "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback.", "policy_suppressed_bets": { "outside-paper-price-band": 1 } }, "gpt-luna": { "decision_time": "2026-09-11T14:05:11.325487Z", "execution_provenance": { "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract", "adapter": { "exit_code": 0, "status": "invalid", "timed_out": false, "valid": false, "validation_errors": [ "bet 0 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 3 unsupported-market-disagreement", "bet 4 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 4 listed odds 11.9200 require a pre-approved price-band evidence exception", "bet 6 unsupported-market-disagreement", "bet 8 unsupported-market-disagreement", "bet 10 unsupported-market-disagreement", "bet 11 unsupported-market-disagreement", "bet 13 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 14 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 19 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 19 listed odds 10.0400 require a pre-approved price-band evidence exception", "bet 22 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 24 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 25 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 28 outside-paper-price-band", "bet count 30 exceeds policy maximum 5", "bet 0 stake 37.880000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 10.000000", "bet 1 stake 37.880000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 10.000000", "bet 2 stake 37.880000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 10.000000", "bet 3 stake 37.880000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 10.000000", "bet 4 stake 37.880000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 5.000000", "bet 5 stake 37.880000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 10.000000", "bet 6 stake 37.880000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 10.000000", "bet 7 stake 37.880000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 10.000000", "bet 8 stake 37.880000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 10.000000", "bet 9 stake 37.880000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 10.000000", "bet 10 stake 37.880000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 10.000000", "bet 11 stake 37.880000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 10.000000", "bet 12 stake 36.240000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 10.000000", "bet 13 stake 34.440000 exceeds policy single-bet 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5.000000", "bet 29 stake 16.220000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 10.000000", "fixture replay-3b76a3ba54ccbe1c has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-5947bfd353bb8c89 has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-672a4d0ede1215df has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-73ef9fc799b36dac has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-7c9d64a9e1582291 has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-90484d826392912e has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-b220d3914157bf6b has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-cab8f6a34fd9b377 has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "longshot bet count 3 exceeds policy maximum 1", "longshot stake 87.280000 exceeds policy cap 5.000000", "total stake 946.900000 exceeds policy round cap 50.000000", "open exposure 1026.900000 would exceed policy cap 154.035000" ], "validation_status": "failed" }, "bet_policy_adjustment": { "adjusted": true, "applied": true, "dropped_by_reason": { "outside-paper-price-band": 7, "round-bet-count-cap": 11, "unsupported-extreme-price": 2, "unsupported-market-disagreement": 5 }, "longshot_bets": 0, "official_bets": 5, "official_stake": 50.0, "policy_version": "balanced-paper-v2", "requested_bets": 30 }, "commissioner_fallback": { "bets_preserved": true, "status": "accepted", "validation_status": "live" } }, "generated_at": "2026-09-11T14:05:21.075031Z", "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback.", "policy_suppressed_bets": { "outside-paper-price-band": 7, "round-bet-count-cap": 11, "unsupported-extreme-price": 2, "unsupported-market-disagreement": 5 } }, "grok": { "decision_time": "2026-09-11T14:05:11.325487Z", "execution_provenance": { "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract", "adapter": { "exit_code": 0, "status": "valid", "timed_out": false, "valid": true, "validation_status": "live" }, "commissioner_fallback": { "bets_preserved": false, "status": "accepted", "validation_status": "live" } }, "generated_at": "2026-09-11T14:05:21.080554Z", "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback." }, "kimi": { "decision_time": "2026-09-11T14:05:11.325487Z", "execution_provenance": { "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract", "adapter": { "exit_code": 0, "status": "valid", "timed_out": false, "valid": true, "validation_status": "live" }, "commissioner_fallback": { "bets_preserved": false, "status": "accepted", "validation_status": "live" } }, "generated_at": "2026-09-11T14:05:21.090432Z", "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback." }, "kimi-k27": { "decision_time": "2026-09-11T14:05:11.325487Z", "execution_provenance": { "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract", "adapter": { "exit_code": 0, "status": "invalid", "timed_out": false, "valid": false, "validation_errors": [ "bet 2 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 3 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 3 listed odds 10.0400 require a pre-approved price-band evidence exception", "bet 4 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 5 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 6 unsupported-market-disagreement", "bet 10 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 14 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 15 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 15 listed odds 11.9200 require a pre-approved price-band evidence exception", "bet 16 unsupported-market-disagreement", "bet 17 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 19 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 24 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 28 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 30 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 37 unsupported-market-disagreement", "bet 38 unsupported-market-disagreement", "bet 40 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 41 unsupported-market-disagreement", "bet 42 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 46 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 48 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 52 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 57 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 59 outside-paper-price-band", "bet count 60 exceeds policy maximum 5", "bet 1 stake 26.510000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.500000", "bet 2 stake 7.550000 exceeds policy 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policy single-bet cap 9.500000", "bet 52 stake 26.510000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.500000", "bet 53 stake 26.510000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.500000", "bet 54 stake 21.750000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.500000", "bet 55 stake 17.570000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.500000", "bet 56 stake 10.040000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.500000", "bet 59 stake 26.510000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.500000", "fixture replay-16537179926fe5f8 has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-1dddc16ddee22360 has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-285f2a67a1bf4f98 has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-2e1c75ecfb0169fe has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-32df0da0b8abf384 has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-3b76a3ba54ccbe1c has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-4f4c1bc5373b4d92 has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-5947bfd353bb8c89 has 3 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-5e8650d7b6f406f1 has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-672a4d0ede1215df has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-6939392d11c04fde has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-6d935b1978a6d431 has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-7113fb3345606434 has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-73ef9fc799b36dac has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-7c9d64a9e1582291 has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-8e01edaf8b7ec890 has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-b220d3914157bf6b has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-be0e8ee4c379e704 has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-c6cd1bb79b4af554 has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-cc17fad767ad4f2d has 3 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-d148243d61df5110 has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-e622c152cdd5a5c9 has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-eaeba709bd8e2763 has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "longshot bet count 6 exceeds policy maximum 1", "longshot stake 54.060000 exceeds policy cap 5.000000", "total stake 865.420000 exceeds policy round cap 47.500000", "open exposure 949.970000 would exceed policy cap 142.500000" ], "validation_status": "failed" }, "bet_policy_adjustment": { "adjusted": true, "applied": true, "dropped_by_reason": { "outside-paper-price-band": 17, "round-bet-count-cap": 31, "unsupported-extreme-price": 2, "unsupported-market-disagreement": 5 }, "longshot_bets": 0, "official_bets": 5, "official_stake": 47.5, "policy_version": "balanced-paper-v2", "requested_bets": 60 }, "commissioner_fallback": { "bets_preserved": true, "status": "accepted", "validation_status": "live" } }, "generated_at": "2026-09-11T14:05:25.081293Z", "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback.", "policy_suppressed_bets": { "outside-paper-price-band": 17, "round-bet-count-cap": 31, "unsupported-extreme-price": 2, "unsupported-market-disagreement": 5 } }, "minimax": { "decision_time": 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unsupported-market-disagreement", "bet 21 unsupported-market-disagreement", "bet 22 unsupported-market-disagreement", "bet 23 unsupported-market-disagreement", "bet 24 unsupported-market-disagreement", "bet 28 unsupported-market-disagreement", "bet 29 unsupported-market-disagreement", "bet 30 unsupported-market-disagreement", "bet 31 outside-paper-price-band", "total stake 959.6700 exceeds bankroll 959.6300", "bet count 32 exceeds policy maximum 5", "bet 0 stake 41.650000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.893000", "bet 1 stake 23.890000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 4.946500", "bet 2 stake 41.650000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.893000", "bet 3 stake 41.650000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.893000", "bet 4 stake 41.650000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.893000", "bet 5 stake 17.870000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.893000", "bet 6 stake 39.100000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 4.946500", "bet 7 stake 41.650000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.893000", "bet 8 stake 14.300000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 4.946500", "bet 9 stake 30.890000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.893000", "bet 10 stake 27.160000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.893000", "bet 12 stake 41.650000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.893000", "bet 14 stake 40.040000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.893000", "bet 15 stake 41.650000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.893000", "bet 16 stake 20.620000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.893000", "bet 17 stake 41.650000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.893000", "bet 18 stake 25.150000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.893000", "bet 19 stake 41.650000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.893000", "bet 20 stake 16.850000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.893000", "bet 21 stake 41.650000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.893000", "bet 22 stake 36.130000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.893000", "bet 23 stake 41.650000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.893000", "bet 24 stake 41.650000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.893000", "bet 27 stake 17.820000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.893000", "bet 28 stake 41.650000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.893000", "bet 29 stake 34.820000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.893000", "bet 30 stake 30.780000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.893000", "longshot bet count 3 exceeds policy maximum 1", "longshot stake 77.290000 exceeds policy cap 5.000000", "total stake 959.670000 exceeds policy round cap 49.465000", "open exposure 989.340000 would exceed policy cap 148.395000" ], "validation_status": "failed" }, "bet_policy_adjustment": { "adjusted": true, "applied": true, "dropped_by_reason": { "outside-paper-price-band": 4, "round-bet-count-cap": 1, "unsupported-extreme-price": 2, "unsupported-market-disagreement": 20 }, "longshot_bets": 0, "official_bets": 5, "official_stake": 44.16, "policy_version": "balanced-paper-v2", "requested_bets": 32 }, "commissioner_fallback": { "bets_preserved": true, "status": "accepted", "validation_status": "live" } }, "generated_at": "2026-09-11T14:05:21.071871Z", "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback.", "policy_suppressed_bets": { "outside-paper-price-band": 4, "round-bet-count-cap": 1, "unsupported-extreme-price": 2, "unsupported-market-disagreement": 20 } }, "qwen": { "decision_time": "2026-09-11T14:05:11.325487Z", "execution_provenance": { "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract", "adapter": { "exit_code": 0, "status": "valid", "timed_out": false, "valid": true, "validation_status": "live" }, "commissioner_fallback": { "bets_preserved": false, "status": "accepted", "validation_status": "live" } }, "generated_at": "2026-09-11T14:05:21.083779Z", "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback." } } }