{
  "available_bankrolls": {
    "claude": 1000.0,
    "codex": 1000.0,
    "gemini": 928.38,
    "gpt-luna": 886.9,
    "grok": 1000.0,
    "grok-46": 1000.0,
    "kimi": 1000.0,
    "kimi-k27": 813.18,
    "minimax": 990.4724,
    "minimax-m3": 915.47,
    "muse-spark": 1000.0,
    "qwen": 1000.0,
    "qwen-max": 1000.0
  },
  "bets": [
    {
      "bot_id": "gpt-luna",
      "fixture_id": "replay-c812bf07fb5b340d",
      "market": "OU25",
      "odds": 1.54,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Recency-weighted goals and venue form imply positive expected value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 10.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "kimi-k27",
      "fixture_id": "replay-c812bf07fb5b340d",
      "market": "OU25",
      "odds": 1.54,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Model over25=0.737 vs implied 0.649; edge=0.134",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 5.68
    }
  ],
  "fingerprint": "sha256:0d5fe3c13dec68447d9a5a6e34f24d6f4d62f612760278168fed199323d0f930",
  "fixtures": [
    {
      "away": "Monaco",
      "competition": "Ligue 1",
      "forecasts": {
        "claude": {
          "away": 0.44586436767813686,
          "draw": 0.2508961227546034,
          "home": 0.30323950956725976,
          "over25": 0.6848405935163102,
          "under25": 0.3151594064836898
        },
        "codex": {
          "away": 0.43746526191003976,
          "draw": 0.2593363595505911,
          "home": 0.30319837853936915,
          "over25": 0.6065705000350974,
          "under25": 0.3934294999649026
        },
        "gemini": {
          "away": 0.41070903287680705,
          "draw": 0.24291479195629373,
          "home": 0.34637617516689917,
          "over25": 0.6306719435920233,
          "under25": 0.3693280564079767
        },
        "gpt-luna": {
          "away": 0.3227628390910197,
          "draw": 0.20990869092758785,
          "home": 0.46732846998139244,
          "over25": 0.7301779649817693,
          "under25": 0.26982203501823065
        },
        "grok": {
          "away": 0.40144817999999993,
          "draw": 0.24014861,
          "home": 0.35840321,
          "over25": 0.61863811,
          "under25": 0.38136189
        },
        "kimi": {
          "away": 0.44303992494347666,
          "draw": 0.24814788574258193,
          "home": 0.3088121893139414,
          "over25": 0.6360713309137628,
          "under25": 0.3639286690862372
        },
        "kimi-k27": {
          "away": 0.502691,
          "draw": 0.205042,
          "home": 0.292267,
          "over25": 0.736541,
          "under25": 0.263459
        },
        "market": {
          "away": 0.43595769682726204,
          "draw": 0.2526439482961222,
          "home": 0.31139835487661577,
          "over25": 0.6061381074168798,
          "under25": 0.39386189258312015
        },
        "minimax": {
          "away": 0.4426243634939287,
          "draw": 0.2526439482961222,
          "home": 0.3047316882099491,
          "over25": 0.6515771526001706,
          "under25": 0.3484228473998294
        },
        "minimax-m3": {
          "away": 0.4740027881878093,
          "draw": 0.17995470623140697,
          "home": 0.34604250558078375,
          "over25": 0.8877885664315581,
          "under25": 0.11221143356844188
        },
        "poisson": {
          "away": 0.40398907,
          "draw": 0.24100378,
          "home": 0.35500714,
          "over25": 0.58456517,
          "under25": 0.41543483
        },
        "qwen": {
          "away": 0.43833864920821447,
          "draw": 0.2526439482961222,
          "home": 0.3090174024956634,
          "over25": 0.6061381074168798,
          "under25": 0.3938618925831202
        }
      },
      "home": "Strasbourg",
      "id": "replay-c812bf07fb5b340d",
      "kickoff": "2026-09-12T15:15:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 2.15,
        "draw": 3.71,
        "home": 3.01,
        "over25": 1.54,
        "under25": 2.37
      },
      "score": null
    },
    {
      "away": "Milan",
      "competition": "Serie A",
      "forecasts": {
        "claude": {
          "away": 0.3929446096352865,
          "draw": 0.2934144357475465,
          "home": 0.31364095461716707,
          "over25": 0.36843718270881143,
          "under25": 0.6315628172911886
        },
        "codex": {
          "away": 0.42329909143039635,
          "draw": 0.28905413350566356,
          "home": 0.2876467750639401,
          "over25": 0.42299455217092624,
          "under25": 0.5770054478290738
        },
        "gemini": {
          "away": 0.3943650012813213,
          "draw": 0.3049759674153792,
          "home": 0.3006590313032996,
          "over25": 0.37627352060367086,
          "under25": 0.6237264793963291
        },
        "gpt-luna": {
          "away": 0.2507664323461949,
          "draw": 0.26110334585604367,
          "home": 0.4881302217977615,
          "over25": 0.45043712039639217,
          "under25": 0.5495628796036078
        },
        "grok": {
          "away": 0.41648352000000005,
          "draw": 0.29373225,
          "home": 0.28978423,
          "over25": 0.44004329,
          "under25": 0.55995671
        },
        "kimi": {
          "away": 0.40615589206023334,
          "draw": 0.29913120790664965,
          "home": 0.294712900033117,
          "over25": 0.39469559118095654,
          "under25": 0.6053044088190435
        },
        "kimi-k27": {
          "away": 0.2896842896842897,
          "draw": 0.2859292859292859,
          "home": 0.4243864243864244,
          "over25": 0.383907,
          "under25": 0.616093
        },
        "market": {
          "away": 0.4178725363348441,
          "draw": 0.29420309411736684,
          "home": 0.28792436954778894,
          "over25": 0.4233766233766234,
          "under25": 0.5766233766233767
        },
        "minimax": {
          "away": 0.40453920300151075,
          "draw": 0.29420309411736695,
          "home": 0.3012577028811223,
          "over25": 0.3887012987012987,
          "under25": 0.6112987012987012
        },
        "minimax-m3": {
          "away": 0.15237478699101048,
          "draw": 0.38183049085970355,
          "home": 0.4657947221492859,
          "over25": 0.13877021286945912,
          "under25": 0.8612297871305409
        },
        "poisson": {
          "away": 0.40995817,
          "draw": 0.24144061,
          "home": 0.34860122,
          "over25": 0.58129872,
          "under25": 0.41870128
        },
        "qwen": {
          "away": 0.40263444109674895,
          "draw": 0.2942030941173669,
          "home": 0.3031624647858842,
          "over25": 0.4233766233766234,
          "under25": 0.5766233766233766
        }
      },
      "home": "Lazio",
      "id": "replay-d77bfe842e38e40a",
      "kickoff": "2026-09-12T16:00:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 2.26,
        "draw": 3.21,
        "home": 3.28,
        "over25": 2.22,
        "under25": 1.63
      },
      "score": null
    }
  ],
  "id": "daily-2026-09-11-r6",
  "kickoff_window": "Next 24 hours",
  "label": "Daily slate \u00b7 12 September",
  "lock_at": "2026-09-12T15:15:00Z",
  "note": "Tips and stakes were published before the first kickoff and are now sealed for settlement.",
  "policy": {
    "bet_policy": {
      "evidence_status": "paper-risk-screen-not-validated-edge",
      "flat_stake_units": 10.0,
      "longshot_decimal_odds": 5.0,
      "longshot_flat_stake_units": 5.0,
      "market_similarity_is_failure": false,
      "maximum_bets_per_fixture": 1,
      "maximum_bets_per_round": 5,
      "maximum_decimal_odds": 3.0,
      "maximum_longshot_bets": 1,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_fraction": 0.005,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_units": 5.0,
      "maximum_market_probability_gap": 0.15,
      "maximum_round_stake_fraction": 0.05,
      "maximum_round_stake_units": 50.0,
      "maximum_single_stake_fraction": 0.01,
      "maximum_total_open_exposure_fraction": 0.15,
      "minimum_point_ev": 0.02,
      "stake_assignment": "commissioner-flat-capped",
      "starting_bankroll_units": 1000.0,
      "unsupported_without_evidence_decimal_odds": 8.0
    },
    "policy_version": "balanced-paper-v2",
    "rubric_sha256": "80cb7810d1fbd5a1602a90ae5401e8c31933db70f1d1a60d8349918093ff7887",
    "rubric_version": "balanced-paper-v2",
    "validator_version": "2"
  },
  "published_at": "2026-09-11T16:06:32.442062Z",
  "snapshot_id": "sha256:eb51455da984926b650851e63ed26edb44e37e968f7d01851fa48c8d7e4c96dc",
  "status": "sealed",
  "submission_meta": {
    "claude": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-11T16:06:18.152269Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-11T16:06:30.414783Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "codex": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-11T16:06:18.152269Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-11T16:06:30.435154Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "gemini": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-11T16:06:18.152269Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-11T16:06:32.439048Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "gpt-luna": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-11T16:06:18.152269Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "bet 0 outside-paper-price-band",
            "bet 2 outside-paper-price-band",
            "bet 0 stake 35.480000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 10.000000",
            "bet 1 stake 35.480000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 10.000000",
            "bet 2 stake 35.480000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 10.000000",
            "fixture replay-c812bf07fb5b340d has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1",
            "total stake 106.440000 exceeds policy round cap 50.000000",
            "open exposure 246.440000 would exceed policy cap 154.035000"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 10.0,
          "policy_version": "balanced-paper-v2",
          "requested_bets": 3
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": true,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-11T16:06:30.411533Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback.",
      "policy_suppressed_bets": {
        "outside-paper-price-band": 2
      }
    },
    "grok": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-11T16:06:18.152269Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-11T16:06:30.415917Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "kimi": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-11T16:06:18.152269Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-11T16:06:30.415981Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "kimi-k27": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-11T16:06:18.152269Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "bet 2 outside-paper-price-band",
            "bet 0 stake 14.280000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.500000",
            "bet 1 stake 40.660000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.500000",
            "bet 2 stake 34.950000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.500000",
            "fixture replay-c812bf07fb5b340d has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1",
            "total stake 89.890000 exceeds policy round cap 47.500000",
            "open exposure 226.710000 would exceed policy cap 142.500000"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 1,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 5.68,
          "policy_version": "balanced-paper-v2",
          "requested_bets": 3
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": true,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-11T16:06:30.604356Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback.",
      "policy_suppressed_bets": {
        "fixture-bet-count-cap": 1,
        "outside-paper-price-band": 1
      }
    },
    "minimax": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-11T16:06:18.152269Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-11T16:06:30.419054Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "minimax-m3": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-11T16:06:18.152269Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "bet 0 unsupported-market-disagreement",
            "bet 1 unsupported-market-disagreement",
            "bet 0 stake 91.550000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.893000",
            "bet 1 stake 91.550000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.893000",
            "total stake 183.100000 exceeds policy round cap 49.465000",
            "open exposure 256.930000 would exceed policy cap 148.395000"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "unsupported-market-disagreement": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 0,
          "official_stake": 0.0,
          "policy_version": "balanced-paper-v2",
          "requested_bets": 2
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-11T16:06:30.423899Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback.",
      "policy_suppressed_bets": {
        "unsupported-market-disagreement": 2
      }
    },
    "qwen": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-11T16:06:18.152269Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-11T16:06:30.413749Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    }
  }
}
