{
  "available_bankrolls": {
    "claude": 1000.0,
    "codex": 1000.0,
    "gemini": 1001.5841,
    "gpt-luna": 917.02,
    "grok": 1000.0,
    "grok-46": 1000.0,
    "kimi": 1000.0,
    "kimi-k27": 955.1473,
    "minimax": 1010.6485,
    "minimax-m3": 999.2364,
    "muse-spark": 1000.0,
    "qwen": 1000.0,
    "qwen-max": 1000.0
  },
  "bets": [
    {
      "bot_id": "gpt-luna",
      "fixture_id": "replay-8eef0ddc96095a08",
      "market": "OU25",
      "odds": 1.8,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Recency-weighted goals and venue form imply positive expected value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 9.65
    }
  ],
  "fingerprint": "sha256:2589dc5474ef9a8a8c71edf5faff3d0db78b77e802c96e5f357fb2eafdd2124d",
  "fixtures": [
    {
      "away": "Santander",
      "competition": "La Liga",
      "forecasts": {
        "claude": {
          "away": 0.027109855728085074,
          "draw": 0.05564313129635016,
          "home": 0.9172470129755648,
          "over25": 0.8972306208716785,
          "under25": 0.10276937912832151
        },
        "codex": {
          "away": 0.03581437550237389,
          "draw": 0.07961275503119035,
          "home": 0.8845728694664358,
          "over25": 0.8511079030629806,
          "under25": 0.14889209693701944
        },
        "gemini": {
          "away": 0.04368299127095862,
          "draw": 0.07161904475050876,
          "home": 0.8846979639785326,
          "over25": 0.8652679038472033,
          "under25": 0.1347320961527967
        },
        "gpt-luna": {
          "away": 0.15394310250698415,
          "draw": 0.15369609753424532,
          "home": 0.6923607999587705,
          "over25": 0.8100955023057628,
          "under25": 0.18990449769423723
        },
        "grok": {
          "away": 0.019770190000000035,
          "draw": 0.04750469,
          "home": 0.93272512,
          "over25": 0.93488529,
          "under25": 0.06511471000000002
        },
        "kimi": {
          "away": 0.03954052141444783,
          "draw": 0.0686477535444108,
          "home": 0.8918117250411414,
          "over25": 0.8576931278706028,
          "under25": 0.1423068721293972
        },
        "kimi-k27": {
          "away": 0.07686700000000002,
          "draw": 0.115224,
          "home": 0.807909,
          "over25": 0.785363,
          "under25": 0.21463699999999997
        },
        "market": {
          "away": 0.039042648838330106,
          "draw": 0.06850133101757701,
          "home": 0.8924560201440929,
          "over25": 0.8515519568151146,
          "under25": 0.1484480431848853
        },
        "minimax": {
          "away": 0.05162615517261744,
          "draw": 0.07072920689288535,
          "home": 0.8776446379344972,
          "over25": 0.8,
          "under25": 0.19999999999999996
        },
        "minimax-m3": {
          "away": 0.03368190866081282,
          "draw": 0.05779719396083467,
          "home": 0.9085208973783525,
          "over25": 0.915903803230469,
          "under25": 0.08409619676953095
        },
        "poisson": {
          "away": 0.11322648,
          "draw": 0.17124466,
          "home": 0.71552886,
          "over25": 0.61413619,
          "under25": 0.38586381
        },
        "qwen": {
          "away": 0.02094741074309195,
          "draw": 0.06850133101757702,
          "home": 0.910551258239331,
          "over25": 0.8515519568151146,
          "under25": 0.14844804318488536
        }
      },
      "home": "Barcelona",
      "id": "replay-1c24e388bd6eb618",
      "kickoff": "2026-09-16T19:30:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 24.23,
        "draw": 13.81,
        "home": 1.06,
        "over25": 1.1,
        "under25": 6.31
      },
      "score": null
    },
    {
      "away": "Ath Bilbao",
      "competition": "La Liga",
      "forecasts": {
        "claude": {
          "away": 0.46597883620993547,
          "draw": 0.267932758436996,
          "home": 0.26608840535306855,
          "over25": 0.523707536659532,
          "under25": 0.47629246334046804
        },
        "codex": {
          "away": 0.4515144800639578,
          "draw": 0.2720060582754703,
          "home": 0.27647946166057197,
          "over25": 0.5186202310543948,
          "under25": 0.4813797689456052
        },
        "gemini": {
          "away": 0.4082688050615509,
          "draw": 0.2704349453216159,
          "home": 0.32129624961683323,
          "over25": 0.5027279301115265,
          "under25": 0.4972720698884735
        },
        "gpt-luna": {
          "away": 0.37261040383557553,
          "draw": 0.23948745905360266,
          "home": 0.38790213711082183,
          "over25": 0.5938689675777404,
          "under25": 0.40613103242225956
        },
        "grok": {
          "away": 0.4364042,
          "draw": 0.26870803,
          "home": 0.29488777,
          "over25": 0.52704991,
          "under25": 0.47295009
        },
        "kimi": {
          "away": 0.45102827309740945,
          "draw": 0.27038199569642785,
          "home": 0.27858973120616265,
          "over25": 0.520711332241346,
          "under25": 0.479288667758654
        },
        "kimi-k27": {
          "away": 0.4547995452004548,
          "draw": 0.2596977403022597,
          "home": 0.28550271449728554,
          "over25": 0.47753,
          "under25": 0.52247
        },
        "market": {
          "away": 0.44649288716145163,
          "draw": 0.272283234656261,
          "home": 0.28122387818228745,
          "over25": 0.5187165775401069,
          "under25": 0.48128342245989303
        },
        "minimax": {
          "away": 0.4531595538281183,
          "draw": 0.272283234656261,
          "home": 0.2745572115156208,
          "over25": 0.4983065953654189,
          "under25": 0.5016934046345811
        },
        "minimax-m3": {
          "away": 0.4615637668857624,
          "draw": 0.2531336912711686,
          "home": 0.28530254184306897,
          "over25": 0.5043758385688502,
          "under25": 0.49562416143114985
        },
        "poisson": {
          "away": 0.30996007,
          "draw": 0.28589282,
          "home": 0.40414711,
          "over25": 0.39017682,
          "under25": 0.60982318
        },
        "qwen": {
          "away": 0.456969077637642,
          "draw": 0.272283234656261,
          "home": 0.270747687706097,
          "over25": 0.5187165775401069,
          "under25": 0.4812834224598931
        }
      },
      "home": "Levante",
      "id": "replay-8eef0ddc96095a08",
      "kickoff": "2026-09-16T19:30:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 2.11,
        "draw": 3.46,
        "home": 3.35,
        "over25": 1.8,
        "under25": 1.94
      },
      "score": null
    }
  ],
  "id": "daily-2026-09-15-r3",
  "kickoff_window": "Next 24 hours",
  "label": "Daily slate \u00b7 16 September",
  "lock_at": "2026-09-16T19:30:00Z",
  "note": "Tips and stakes were published before the first kickoff and are now sealed for settlement.",
  "policy": {
    "bet_policy": {
      "evidence_status": "paper-risk-screen-not-validated-edge",
      "flat_stake_units": 10.0,
      "longshot_decimal_odds": 5.0,
      "longshot_flat_stake_units": 5.0,
      "market_similarity_is_failure": false,
      "maximum_bets_per_fixture": 1,
      "maximum_bets_per_round": 5,
      "maximum_decimal_odds": 3.0,
      "maximum_longshot_bets": 1,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_fraction": 0.005,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_units": 5.0,
      "maximum_market_probability_gap": 0.15,
      "maximum_round_stake_fraction": 0.05,
      "maximum_round_stake_units": 50.0,
      "maximum_single_stake_fraction": 0.01,
      "maximum_total_open_exposure_fraction": 0.15,
      "minimum_point_ev": 0.02,
      "stake_assignment": "commissioner-flat-capped",
      "starting_bankroll_units": 1000.0,
      "unsupported_without_evidence_decimal_odds": 8.0
    },
    "policy_version": "balanced-paper-v2",
    "rubric_sha256": "80cb7810d1fbd5a1602a90ae5401e8c31933db70f1d1a60d8349918093ff7887",
    "rubric_version": "balanced-paper-v2",
    "validator_version": "2"
  },
  "published_at": "2026-09-15T20:05:19.049933Z",
  "snapshot_id": "sha256:e98c11100278161fd45a611f2d6e73bc6ee5e8a8319c27ede170cfbcb51952b9",
  "status": "sealed",
  "submission_meta": {
    "claude": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-15T20:05:09.374188Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-15T20:05:17.188363Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "codex": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-15T20:05:09.374188Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-15T20:05:17.194594Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "gemini": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-15T20:05:09.374188Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-15T20:05:19.047728Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "gpt-luna": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-15T20:05:09.374188Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "bet 0 outside-paper-price-band",
            "bet 1 outside-paper-price-band",
            "bet 1 listed odds 24.2300 require a pre-approved price-band evidence exception",
            "bet 2 outside-paper-price-band",
            "bet 2 listed odds 13.8100 require a pre-approved price-band evidence exception",
            "bet 4 outside-paper-price-band",
            "bet 0 stake 23.370000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.652700",
            "bet 1 stake 21.550000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 4.826350",
            "bet 2 stake 16.070000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 4.826350",
            "bet 3 stake 15.810000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.652700",
            "bet 4 stake 6.850000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 4.826350",
            "fixture replay-1c24e388bd6eb618 has 3 bets; policy maximum is 1",
            "fixture replay-8eef0ddc96095a08 has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1",
            "longshot bet count 3 exceeds policy maximum 1",
            "longshot stake 44.470000 exceeds policy cap 5.000000",
            "total stake 83.650000 exceeds policy round cap 48.263500"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2,
            "unsupported-extreme-price": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 9.65,
          "policy_version": "balanced-paper-v2",
          "requested_bets": 5
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": true,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-15T20:05:17.195449Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback.",
      "policy_suppressed_bets": {
        "outside-paper-price-band": 2,
        "unsupported-extreme-price": 2
      }
    },
    "grok": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-15T20:05:09.374188Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-15T20:05:17.191465Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "kimi": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-15T20:05:09.374188Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-15T20:05:17.191612Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "kimi-k27": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-15T20:05:09.374188Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "bet 0 outside-paper-price-band",
            "bet 0 listed odds 13.8100 require a pre-approved price-band evidence exception",
            "bet 1 outside-paper-price-band",
            "bet 1 listed odds 24.2300 require a pre-approved price-band evidence exception",
            "bet 2 outside-paper-price-band",
            "bet 0 stake 11.020000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 4.923336",
            "bet 1 stake 8.870000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 4.923336",
            "bet 2 stake 15.940000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 4.923336",
            "fixture replay-1c24e388bd6eb618 has 3 bets; policy maximum is 1",
            "longshot bet count 3 exceeds policy maximum 1",
            "longshot stake 35.830000 exceeds policy cap 5.000000"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1,
            "unsupported-extreme-price": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 0,
          "official_stake": 0.0,
          "policy_version": "balanced-paper-v2",
          "requested_bets": 3
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-15T20:05:17.352608Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback.",
      "policy_suppressed_bets": {
        "outside-paper-price-band": 1,
        "unsupported-extreme-price": 2
      }
    },
    "minimax": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-15T20:05:09.374188Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "bet 0 outside-paper-price-band",
            "bet 0 listed odds 24.2300 require a pre-approved price-band evidence exception",
            "bet 1 outside-paper-price-band",
            "bet 1 stake 9.970000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 5.000000",
            "fixture replay-1c24e388bd6eb618 has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1",
            "longshot bet count 2 exceeds policy maximum 1",
            "longshot stake 12.700000 exceeds policy cap 5.000000"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1,
            "unsupported-extreme-price": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 0,
          "official_stake": 0.0,
          "policy_version": "balanced-paper-v2",
          "requested_bets": 2
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-15T20:05:17.180171Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback.",
      "policy_suppressed_bets": {
        "outside-paper-price-band": 1,
        "unsupported-extreme-price": 1
      }
    },
    "minimax-m3": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-15T20:05:09.374188Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-15T20:05:17.191575Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "qwen": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-15T20:05:09.374188Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-15T20:05:17.195078Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    }
  }
}