{
  "available_bankrolls": {
    "claude": 1000.0,
    "codex": 1000.0,
    "gemini": 1001.5841,
    "gpt-luna": 897.72,
    "grok": 1000.0,
    "grok-46": 1000.0,
    "kimi": 1000.0,
    "kimi-k27": 936.6973,
    "minimax": 1010.6485,
    "minimax-m3": 979.2364,
    "muse-spark": 1000.0,
    "qwen": 1000.0,
    "qwen-max": 1000.0
  },
  "bets": [
    {
      "bot_id": "kimi-k27",
      "fixture_id": "replay-79dfd42f19973a3e",
      "market": "OU25",
      "odds": 2.23,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Model under25=0.513 vs implied 0.448; edge=0.144",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 9.84
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "minimax-m3",
      "fixture_id": "replay-79dfd42f19973a3e",
      "market": "1X2",
      "odds": 1.94,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Model probability 0.594 vs implied 0.515; edge 0.078, EV 0.152 on AWAY.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 10.0
    }
  ],
  "fingerprint": "sha256:f048d8fee8cff0da92e8aa69539e71f788f2be977f726d7a66f143230f006c51",
  "fixtures": [
    {
      "away": "Villarreal",
      "competition": "La Liga",
      "forecasts": {
        "claude": {
          "away": 0.4818533242561879,
          "draw": 0.2533321004897032,
          "home": 0.26481457525410895,
          "over25": 0.597670310443499,
          "under25": 0.40232968955650095
        },
        "codex": {
          "away": 0.4895937861699706,
          "draw": 0.25584204070900907,
          "home": 0.2545641731210203,
          "over25": 0.5804946421309449,
          "under25": 0.4195053578690551
        },
        "gemini": {
          "away": 0.43455573483782284,
          "draw": 0.2476846547166682,
          "home": 0.3177596104455089,
          "over25": 0.5887314500630618,
          "under25": 0.4112685499369382
        },
        "gpt-luna": {
          "away": 0.3412013754237527,
          "draw": 0.2513672216285567,
          "home": 0.40743140294769065,
          "over25": 0.5336660294158078,
          "under25": 0.46633397058419224
        },
        "grok": {
          "away": 0.5059005299999999,
          "draw": 0.24731058000000003,
          "home": 0.24678889000000004,
          "over25": 0.5390625,
          "under25": 0.4609375
        },
        "kimi": {
          "away": 0.49119478766385827,
          "draw": 0.25026407932451544,
          "home": 0.25854113301162623,
          "over25": 0.5809798903354152,
          "under25": 0.4190201096645848
        },
        "kimi-k27": {
          "away": 0.505549,
          "draw": 0.250256,
          "home": 0.244195,
          "over25": 0.487171,
          "under25": 0.512829
        },
        "market": {
          "away": 0.48185332470174785,
          "draw": 0.25333210024969943,
          "home": 0.2648145750485526,
          "over25": 0.5807291666666666,
          "under25": 0.4192708333333333
        },
        "minimax": {
          "away": 0.48185332470174785,
          "draw": 0.2533321002496995,
          "home": 0.2648145750485526,
          "over25": 0.5645833333333333,
          "under25": 0.4354166666666667
        },
        "minimax-m3": {
          "away": 0.5939463424363669,
          "draw": 0.22183720733412426,
          "home": 0.18421645022950886,
          "over25": 0.5350733312016015,
          "under25": 0.4649266687983985
        },
        "poisson": {
          "away": 0.37053332,
          "draw": 0.29899259,
          "home": 0.33047409,
          "over25": 0.35118962,
          "under25": 0.64881038
        },
        "qwen": {
          "away": 0.48185332470174785,
          "draw": 0.2533321002496995,
          "home": 0.26481457504855266,
          "over25": 0.5807291666666666,
          "under25": 0.41927083333333337
        }
      },
      "home": "Malaga",
      "id": "replay-79dfd42f19973a3e",
      "kickoff": "2026-09-17T19:30:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 1.94,
        "draw": 3.69,
        "home": 3.53,
        "over25": 1.61,
        "under25": 2.23
      },
      "score": null
    }
  ],
  "id": "daily-2026-09-16-r3",
  "kickoff_window": "Next 24 hours",
  "label": "Daily slate \u00b7 17 September",
  "lock_at": "2026-09-17T19:30:00Z",
  "note": "Tips and stakes were published before the first kickoff and are now sealed for settlement.",
  "policy": {
    "bet_policy": {
      "evidence_status": "paper-risk-screen-not-validated-edge",
      "flat_stake_units": 10.0,
      "longshot_decimal_odds": 5.0,
      "longshot_flat_stake_units": 5.0,
      "market_similarity_is_failure": false,
      "maximum_bets_per_fixture": 1,
      "maximum_bets_per_round": 5,
      "maximum_decimal_odds": 3.0,
      "maximum_longshot_bets": 1,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_fraction": 0.005,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_units": 5.0,
      "maximum_market_probability_gap": 0.15,
      "maximum_round_stake_fraction": 0.05,
      "maximum_round_stake_units": 50.0,
      "maximum_single_stake_fraction": 0.01,
      "maximum_total_open_exposure_fraction": 0.15,
      "minimum_point_ev": 0.02,
      "stake_assignment": "commissioner-flat-capped",
      "starting_bankroll_units": 1000.0,
      "unsupported_without_evidence_decimal_odds": 8.0
    },
    "policy_version": "balanced-paper-v2",
    "rubric_sha256": "80cb7810d1fbd5a1602a90ae5401e8c31933db70f1d1a60d8349918093ff7887",
    "rubric_version": "balanced-paper-v2",
    "validator_version": "2"
  },
  "published_at": "2026-09-16T20:05:23.088473Z",
  "snapshot_id": "sha256:094f6e4958ff8238eed465547b5ceedc9acfb5ea24930429453669f9cfd615a7",
  "status": "sealed",
  "submission_meta": {
    "claude": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-16T20:05:11.573967Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-16T20:05:21.337235Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "codex": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-16T20:05:11.573967Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-16T20:05:21.327455Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "gemini": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-16T20:05:11.573967Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "bet 0 outside-paper-price-band"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 0,
          "official_stake": 0.0,
          "policy_version": "balanced-paper-v2",
          "requested_bets": 1
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-16T20:05:23.086189Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback.",
      "policy_suppressed_bets": {
        "outside-paper-price-band": 1
      }
    },
    "gpt-luna": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-16T20:05:11.573967Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "bet 0 outside-paper-price-band",
            "bet 0 stake 31.100000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.652700"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 0,
          "official_stake": 0.0,
          "policy_version": "balanced-paper-v2",
          "requested_bets": 1
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-16T20:05:21.351955Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback.",
      "policy_suppressed_bets": {
        "outside-paper-price-band": 1
      }
    },
    "grok": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-16T20:05:11.573967Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-16T20:05:21.331902Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "kimi": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-16T20:05:11.573967Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-16T20:05:21.323146Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "kimi-k27": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-16T20:05:11.573967Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "bet 0 stake 27.340000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.846673"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {},
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 9.84,
          "policy_version": "balanced-paper-v2",
          "requested_bets": 1
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": true,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-16T20:05:21.406040Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "minimax": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-16T20:05:11.573967Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-16T20:05:21.325818Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "minimax-m3": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-16T20:05:11.573967Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "bet 0 stake 31.720000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 10.000000"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {},
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 10.0,
          "policy_version": "balanced-paper-v2",
          "requested_bets": 1
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": true,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-16T20:05:21.340251Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "qwen": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-16T20:05:11.573967Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-16T20:05:21.334796Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    }
  }
}