{
  "available_bankrolls": {
    "claude": 1000.0,
    "codex": 1000.0,
    "gemini": 1001.5841,
    "gpt-luna": 907.37,
    "grok": 1000.0,
    "grok-46": 1000.0,
    "kimi": 1000.0,
    "kimi-k27": 955.1473,
    "minimax": 1010.6485,
    "minimax-m3": 999.2364,
    "muse-spark": 1000.0,
    "qwen": 1000.0,
    "qwen-max": 1000.0
  },
  "bets": [
    {
      "bot_id": "gpt-luna",
      "fixture_id": "replay-4a148a4441259b27",
      "market": "OU25",
      "odds": 2.16,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Recency-weighted goals and venue form imply positive expected value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 9.65
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "kimi-k27",
      "fixture_id": "replay-4a148a4441259b27",
      "market": "OU25",
      "odds": 1.65,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Model under25=0.620 vs implied 0.606; edge=0.023",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 8.61
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "minimax-m3",
      "fixture_id": "replay-4a148a4441259b27",
      "market": "OU25",
      "odds": 1.65,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Model probability 0.686 vs implied 0.606; edge 0.080, EV 0.132 on UNDER25.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 10.0
    }
  ],
  "fingerprint": "sha256:e2d7ade82b80c122bc1d16cad7378f3b4726f049c197eeef0f6c5b6a47950fba",
  "fixtures": [
    {
      "away": "Getafe",
      "competition": "La Liga",
      "forecasts": {
        "claude": {
          "away": 0.13558803444756443,
          "draw": 0.2328740663598061,
          "home": 0.6315378991926295,
          "over25": 0.4135441923757676,
          "under25": 0.5864558076242323
        },
        "codex": {
          "away": 0.1674381851704207,
          "draw": 0.2483299920420487,
          "home": 0.5842318227875306,
          "over25": 0.4330784441405865,
          "under25": 0.5669215558594135
        },
        "gemini": {
          "away": 0.18354391536521403,
          "draw": 0.2695077176470792,
          "home": 0.5469483669877068,
          "over25": 0.3967919517580331,
          "under25": 0.6032080482419668
        },
        "gpt-luna": {
          "away": 0.2222985849260272,
          "draw": 0.24037221977493525,
          "home": 0.5373291952990376,
          "over25": 0.5063036528652931,
          "under25": 0.4936963471347069
        },
        "grok": {
          "away": 0.10803359999999995,
          "draw": 0.23754882,
          "home": 0.65441758,
          "over25": 0.43307087,
          "under25": 0.56692913
        },
        "kimi": {
          "away": 0.17592026601318972,
          "draw": 0.2602681285725727,
          "home": 0.5638116054142376,
          "over25": 0.42133306433321377,
          "under25": 0.5786669356667862
        },
        "kimi-k27": {
          "away": 0.245379,
          "draw": 0.280582,
          "home": 0.474039,
          "over25": 0.379727,
          "under25": 0.6202730000000001
        },
        "market": {
          "away": 0.17235092608720895,
          "draw": 0.25805028160018584,
          "home": 0.5695987923126052,
          "over25": 0.43307086614173224,
          "under25": 0.5669291338582677
        },
        "minimax": {
          "away": 0.1456842594205423,
          "draw": 0.2580502816001857,
          "home": 0.596265458979272,
          "over25": 0.4131233595800525,
          "under25": 0.5868766404199475
        },
        "minimax-m3": {
          "away": 0.19874103522004316,
          "draw": 0.29249590938420067,
          "home": 0.5087630553957562,
          "over25": 0.3140302813459468,
          "under25": 0.6859697186540532
        },
        "poisson": {
          "away": 0.20502122,
          "draw": 0.27209185,
          "home": 0.52288693,
          "over25": 0.37617024,
          "under25": 0.62382976
        },
        "qwen": {
          "away": 0.1456842594205422,
          "draw": 0.25805028160018584,
          "home": 0.596265458979272,
          "over25": 0.43307086614173224,
          "under25": 0.5669291338582678
        }
      },
      "home": "Betis",
      "id": "replay-4a148a4441259b27",
      "kickoff": "2026-09-17T17:00:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 5.42,
        "draw": 3.62,
        "home": 1.64,
        "over25": 2.16,
        "under25": 1.65
      },
      "score": null
    }
  ],
  "id": "daily-2026-09-16",
  "kickoff_window": "Next 24 hours",
  "label": "Daily slate \u00b7 17 September",
  "lock_at": "2026-09-17T17:00:00Z",
  "note": "Tips and stakes were published before the first kickoff and are now sealed for settlement.",
  "policy": {
    "bet_policy": {
      "evidence_status": "paper-risk-screen-not-validated-edge",
      "flat_stake_units": 10.0,
      "longshot_decimal_odds": 5.0,
      "longshot_flat_stake_units": 5.0,
      "market_similarity_is_failure": false,
      "maximum_bets_per_fixture": 1,
      "maximum_bets_per_round": 5,
      "maximum_decimal_odds": 3.0,
      "maximum_longshot_bets": 1,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_fraction": 0.005,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_units": 5.0,
      "maximum_market_probability_gap": 0.15,
      "maximum_round_stake_fraction": 0.05,
      "maximum_round_stake_units": 50.0,
      "maximum_single_stake_fraction": 0.01,
      "maximum_total_open_exposure_fraction": 0.15,
      "minimum_point_ev": 0.02,
      "stake_assignment": "commissioner-flat-capped",
      "starting_bankroll_units": 1000.0,
      "unsupported_without_evidence_decimal_odds": 8.0
    },
    "policy_version": "balanced-paper-v2",
    "rubric_sha256": "80cb7810d1fbd5a1602a90ae5401e8c31933db70f1d1a60d8349918093ff7887",
    "rubric_version": "balanced-paper-v2",
    "validator_version": "2"
  },
  "published_at": "2026-09-16T17:05:20.438967Z",
  "snapshot_id": "sha256:53f848da7dd0d6c599d16849dcb88669d6657591dc471d829f027788b7478506",
  "status": "sealed",
  "submission_meta": {
    "claude": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-16T17:05:09.781124Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-16T17:05:18.653217Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "codex": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-16T17:05:09.781124Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-16T17:05:18.663245Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "gemini": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-16T17:05:09.781124Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-16T17:05:20.436517Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "gpt-luna": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-16T17:05:09.781124Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "bet 1 outside-paper-price-band",
            "bet 0 stake 14.650000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.652700",
            "bet 1 stake 8.410000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 4.826350",
            "fixture replay-4a148a4441259b27 has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1",
            "longshot stake 8.410000 exceeds policy cap 5.000000"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 9.65,
          "policy_version": "balanced-paper-v2",
          "requested_bets": 2
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": true,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-16T17:05:18.646531Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback.",
      "policy_suppressed_bets": {
        "outside-paper-price-band": 1
      }
    },
    "grok": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-16T17:05:09.781124Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-16T17:05:18.655105Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "kimi": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-16T17:05:09.781124Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-16T17:05:18.656730Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "kimi-k27": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-16T17:05:09.781124Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "bet 0 outside-paper-price-band",
            "bet 0 stake 17.830000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 4.923336",
            "fixture replay-4a148a4441259b27 has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1",
            "longshot stake 17.830000 exceeds policy cap 5.000000"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 8.61,
          "policy_version": "balanced-paper-v2",
          "requested_bets": 2
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": true,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-16T17:05:18.778649Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback.",
      "policy_suppressed_bets": {
        "outside-paper-price-band": 1
      }
    },
    "minimax": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-16T17:05:09.781124Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-16T17:05:18.649920Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "minimax-m3": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-16T17:05:09.781124Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "bet 0 stake 40.540000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 10.000000"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {},
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 10.0,
          "policy_version": "balanced-paper-v2",
          "requested_bets": 1
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": true,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-16T17:05:18.662693Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "qwen": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-16T17:05:09.781124Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-16T17:05:18.649156Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    }
  }
}