{
  "available_bankrolls": {
    "claude": 1000.0,
    "codex": 1000.0,
    "gemini": 971.5841,
    "gpt-luna": 835.186,
    "grok": 1000.0,
    "grok-46": 1000.0,
    "kimi": 1000.0,
    "kimi-k27": 865.3366,
    "minimax": 1000.6485,
    "minimax-m3": 1004.2764,
    "muse-spark": 1000.0,
    "qwen": 998.0,
    "qwen-max": 1000.0
  },
  "bets": [
    {
      "bot_id": "gpt-luna",
      "fixture_id": "replay-6b82a28c29fa8aaa",
      "market": "1X2",
      "odds": 2.62,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Recency-weighted goals and venue form imply positive expected value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 9.38
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "gpt-luna",
      "fixture_id": "replay-ebbbb5b68b26096c",
      "market": "OU25",
      "odds": 1.61,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Recency-weighted goals and venue form imply positive expected value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 9.38
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "kimi-k27",
      "fixture_id": "replay-6b82a28c29fa8aaa",
      "market": "1X2",
      "odds": 2.62,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Model home=0.476 vs implied 0.382; edge=0.246",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 9.72
    }
  ],
  "fingerprint": "sha256:6a8b5b98be163c97d8062ebade9884cede20edb3250fde5bf68f29343d9fd6cc",
  "fixtures": [
    {
      "away": "Strasbourg",
      "competition": "Ligue 1",
      "forecasts": {
        "claude": {
          "away": 0.24568363820554548,
          "draw": 0.24617922489123437,
          "home": 0.5081371369032202,
          "over25": 0.6389402311721923,
          "under25": 0.36105976882780766
        },
        "codex": {
          "away": 0.2728253529872132,
          "draw": 0.258124870058121,
          "home": 0.4690497769546658,
          "over25": 0.5810014260224288,
          "under25": 0.41899857397757123
        },
        "gemini": {
          "away": 0.2832319208864245,
          "draw": 0.24910955621833114,
          "home": 0.46765852289524434,
          "over25": 0.5857046008424563,
          "under25": 0.41429539915754365
        },
        "gpt-luna": {
          "away": 0.2818568599531694,
          "draw": 0.21760129674261125,
          "home": 0.5005418433042194,
          "over25": 0.6661019646099524,
          "under25": 0.3338980353900476
        },
        "grok": {
          "away": 0.29751168,
          "draw": 0.24963001,
          "home": 0.45285831,
          "over25": 0.61822917,
          "under25": 0.38177083
        },
        "kimi": {
          "away": 0.2675522625153456,
          "draw": 0.24946352502585675,
          "home": 0.48298421245879763,
          "over25": 0.6024486195247634,
          "under25": 0.39755138047523664
        },
        "kimi-k27": {
          "away": 0.33318400000000004,
          "draw": 0.210427,
          "home": 0.456389,
          "over25": 0.731824,
          "under25": 0.26817599999999997
        },
        "market": {
          "away": 0.2757532496806672,
          "draw": 0.2554662258621985,
          "home": 0.46878052445713425,
          "over25": 0.5807291666666666,
          "under25": 0.4192708333333333
        },
        "minimax": {
          "away": 0.2557532496806672,
          "draw": 0.2554662258621985,
          "home": 0.48878052445713427,
          "over25": 0.6145833333333334,
          "under25": 0.38541666666666663
        },
        "minimax-m3": {
          "away": 0.07930144778135358,
          "draw": 0.11396593652184821,
          "home": 0.8067326156967982,
          "over25": 0.8058801555396705,
          "under25": 0.19411984446032948
        },
        "poisson": {
          "away": 0.28891795,
          "draw": 0.25138508,
          "home": 0.45969696,
          "over25": 0.51365113,
          "under25": 0.48634887
        },
        "qwen": {
          "away": 0.2528961068235244,
          "draw": 0.2554662258621985,
          "home": 0.4916376673142771,
          "over25": 0.5807291666666666,
          "under25": 0.41927083333333337
        }
      },
      "home": "Paris FC",
      "id": "replay-ebbbb5b68b26096c",
      "kickoff": "2026-09-19T15:15:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 3.4,
        "draw": 3.67,
        "home": 2.0,
        "over25": 1.61,
        "under25": 2.23
      },
      "score": null
    },
    {
      "away": "Inter",
      "competition": "Serie A",
      "forecasts": {
        "claude": {
          "away": 0.3889068779274911,
          "draw": 0.26792524931536543,
          "home": 0.3431678727571434,
          "over25": 0.6670107679879897,
          "under25": 0.33298923201201025
        },
        "codex": {
          "away": 0.36283577092816893,
          "draw": 0.2758757510318877,
          "home": 0.36128847803994335,
          "over25": 0.5835941892658318,
          "under25": 0.41640581073416816
        },
        "gemini": {
          "away": 0.36109049782896807,
          "draw": 0.26073244883073576,
          "home": 0.37817705334029617,
          "over25": 0.5859648416826523,
          "under25": 0.4140351583173477
        },
        "gpt-luna": {
          "away": 0.3432132879903554,
          "draw": 0.20162184251114385,
          "home": 0.45516486949850077,
          "over25": 0.7805559300164739,
          "under25": 0.21944406998352606
        },
        "grok": {
          "away": 0.44375136000000004,
          "draw": 0.25142237,
          "home": 0.30482627,
          "over25": 0.68706822,
          "under25": 0.31293178
        },
        "kimi": {
          "away": 0.35640498444964624,
          "draw": 0.2637382782276056,
          "home": 0.37985673732274816,
          "over25": 0.5981932335414328,
          "under25": 0.40180676645856717
        },
        "kimi-k27": {
          "away": 0.2930667069332932,
          "draw": 0.23135376864623133,
          "home": 0.4755795244204755,
          "over25": 0.606714,
          "under25": 0.393286
        },
        "market": {
          "away": 0.3698304906508981,
          "draw": 0.27021998600567054,
          "home": 0.35994952334343133,
          "over25": 0.582901554404145,
          "under25": 0.4170984455958549
        },
        "minimax": {
          "away": 0.3764971573175648,
          "draw": 0.2702199860056705,
          "home": 0.3532828566767647,
          "over25": 0.6163212435233161,
          "under25": 0.3836787564766839
        },
        "minimax-m3": {
          "away": 0.07242950179111303,
          "draw": 0.11843620233611922,
          "home": 0.8091342958727678,
          "over25": 0.7482678889582199,
          "under25": 0.25173211104178006
        },
        "poisson": {
          "away": 0.46019138,
          "draw": 0.25596116,
          "home": 0.28384745,
          "over25": 0.4917552,
          "under25": 0.5082448
        },
        "qwen": {
          "away": 0.3698304906508981,
          "draw": 0.27021998600567054,
          "home": 0.35994952334343133,
          "over25": 0.582901554404145,
          "under25": 0.41709844559585496
        }
      },
      "home": "Roma",
      "id": "replay-6b82a28c29fa8aaa",
      "kickoff": "2026-09-19T16:00:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 2.55,
        "draw": 3.49,
        "home": 2.62,
        "over25": 1.61,
        "under25": 2.25
      },
      "score": null
    }
  ],
  "id": "daily-2026-09-18-r4",
  "kickoff_window": "Next 24 hours",
  "label": "Daily slate \u00b7 19 September",
  "lock_at": "2026-09-19T15:15:00Z",
  "note": "Tips and stakes were published before the first kickoff and are now sealed for settlement.",
  "policy": {
    "bet_policy": {
      "evidence_status": "paper-risk-screen-not-validated-edge",
      "flat_stake_units": 10.0,
      "longshot_decimal_odds": 5.0,
      "longshot_flat_stake_units": 5.0,
      "market_similarity_is_failure": false,
      "maximum_bets_per_fixture": 1,
      "maximum_bets_per_round": 5,
      "maximum_decimal_odds": 3.0,
      "maximum_longshot_bets": 1,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_fraction": 0.005,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_units": 5.0,
      "maximum_market_probability_gap": 0.15,
      "maximum_round_stake_fraction": 0.05,
      "maximum_round_stake_units": 50.0,
      "maximum_single_stake_fraction": 0.01,
      "maximum_total_open_exposure_fraction": 0.15,
      "minimum_point_ev": 0.02,
      "stake_assignment": "commissioner-flat-capped",
      "starting_bankroll_units": 1000.0,
      "unsupported_without_evidence_decimal_odds": 8.0
    },
    "policy_version": "balanced-paper-v2",
    "rubric_sha256": "80cb7810d1fbd5a1602a90ae5401e8c31933db70f1d1a60d8349918093ff7887",
    "rubric_version": "balanced-paper-v2",
    "validator_version": "2"
  },
  "published_at": "2026-09-18T16:05:30.727572Z",
  "snapshot_id": "sha256:0efd7c53390e0a0da494881adb8a68eeb4f471385be2407eb395c1f6d2ac640d",
  "status": "sealed",
  "submission_meta": {
    "claude": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-18T16:05:10.069800Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-18T16:05:28.904338Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "codex": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-18T16:05:10.069800Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-18T16:05:28.908457Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "gemini": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-18T16:05:10.069800Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-18T16:05:30.725376Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "gpt-luna": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-18T16:05:10.069800Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "bet 0 unsupported-market-disagreement",
            "bet 0 stake 33.410000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.386360",
            "bet 1 stake 19.850000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.386360",
            "bet 2 stake 19.830000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.386360",
            "fixture replay-6b82a28c29fa8aaa has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1",
            "total stake 73.090000 exceeds policy round cap 46.931800",
            "open exposure 176.540000 would exceed policy cap 140.795400"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "unsupported-market-disagreement": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 2,
          "official_stake": 18.76,
          "policy_version": "balanced-paper-v2",
          "requested_bets": 3
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": true,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-18T16:05:28.913666Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback.",
      "policy_suppressed_bets": {
        "unsupported-market-disagreement": 1
      }
    },
    "grok": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-18T16:05:10.069800Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-18T16:05:28.912842Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "kimi": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-18T16:05:10.069800Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-18T16:05:28.918508Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "kimi-k27": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-18T16:05:10.069800Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "bet 0 outside-paper-price-band",
            "bet 1 unsupported-market-disagreement",
            "bet 0 stake 11.970000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.722566",
            "bet 1 stake 43.270000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.722566",
            "bet 2 stake 32.850000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.722566",
            "fixture replay-ebbbb5b68b26096c has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1",
            "total stake 88.090000 exceeds policy round cap 48.612830",
            "open exposure 195.010000 would exceed policy cap 145.838490"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1,
            "unsupported-market-disagreement": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 9.72,
          "policy_version": "balanced-paper-v2",
          "requested_bets": 3
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": true,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-18T16:05:29.079773Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback.",
      "policy_suppressed_bets": {
        "outside-paper-price-band": 1,
        "unsupported-market-disagreement": 1
      }
    },
    "minimax": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-18T16:05:10.069800Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-18T16:05:28.915628Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    },
    "minimax-m3": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-18T16:05:10.069800Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "bet 0 unsupported-market-disagreement",
            "bet 1 unsupported-market-disagreement",
            "bet 0 stake 100.430000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 10.000000",
            "bet 1 stake 100.430000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 10.000000",
            "total stake 200.860000 exceeds policy round cap 50.000000",
            "open exposure 237.720000 would exceed policy cap 156.170460"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "unsupported-market-disagreement": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 0,
          "official_stake": 0.0,
          "policy_version": "balanced-paper-v2",
          "requested_bets": 2
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-18T16:05:28.919829Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback.",
      "policy_suppressed_bets": {
        "unsupported-market-disagreement": 2
      }
    },
    "qwen": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-18T16:05:10.069800Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-18T16:05:28.910231Z",
      "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback."
    }
  }
}
