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0.2720792905281481, "home": 0.47443575745806144, "over25": 0.46520000000000006, "under25": 0.5347999999999999 }, "minimax-m3": { "away": 0.38491332159981884, "draw": 0.3527111003044998, "home": 0.2623755780956813, "over25": 0.21178958717566998, "under25": 0.78821041282433 }, "poisson": { "away": 0.27762987, "draw": 0.26026112, "home": 0.46210901, "over25": 0.471002, "under25": 0.528998 } }, "home": "Bologna", "id": "replay-599b883f862cd11e", "kickoff": "2026-09-19T13:00:00Z", "odds": { "away": 3.92, "draw": 3.46, "home": 1.93, "over25": 1.96, "under25": 1.79 }, "score": null }, { "away": "Cagliari", "competition": "Serie A", "forecasts": { "claude": { "away": 0.3311010613659487, "draw": 0.29114659096989864, "home": 0.3777523476641527, "over25": 0.44968106174108, "under25": 0.55031893825892 }, "codex": { "away": 0.2922167924369139, "draw": 0.2814805452639474, "home": 0.4263026622991387, "over25": 0.44498392871747555, "under25": 0.5550160712825245 }, "gemini": { "away": 0.2763202174547333, "draw": 0.2836682894498062, "home": 0.4400114930954605, "over25": 0.4454037492845023, "under25": 0.5545962507154977 }, "gpt-luna": { "away": 0.35870806413198286, "draw": 0.23449146488227599, "home": 0.4068004709857412, "over25": 0.6171100916823566, "under25": 0.38288990831764336 }, "grok": { "away": 0.25117197, "draw": 0.28135493, "home": 0.4674731, "over25": 0.44473684, "under25": 0.55526316 }, "kimi": { "away": 0.29462472360852465, "draw": 0.2919241830092829, "home": 0.4134510933821924, "over25": 0.44425687108284506, "under25": 0.5557431289171549 }, "kimi-k27": { "away": 0.2981492981492982, "draw": 0.27279427279427276, "home": 0.42905642905642905, "over25": 0.432833, "under25": 0.567167 }, "market": { "away": 0.2876529583191062, "draw": 0.2930129513312634, "home": 0.4193340903496304, "over25": 0.4447368421052632, "under25": 0.5552631578947369 }, "minimax": { "away": 0.3076529583191062, "draw": 0.2930129513312635, "home": 0.39933409034963036, "over25": 0.45578947368421063, "under25": 0.5442105263157894 }, "minimax-m3": { "away": 0.35995998628260617, "draw": 0.28008002743478766, "home": 0.3599599862826061, "over25": 0.41725047020101025, "under25": 0.5827495297989898 }, "poisson": { "away": 0.3091872, "draw": 0.28886942, "home": 0.40194338, "over25": 0.38004321, "under25": 0.61995679 } }, "home": "Udinese", "id": "replay-b03446c67a7ceb00", "kickoff": "2026-09-19T13:00:00Z", "odds": { "away": 3.28, "draw": 3.22, "home": 2.25, "over25": 2.11, "under25": 1.69 }, "score": null } ], "id": "daily-2026-09-18", "kickoff_window": "Next 24 hours", "label": "Daily slate \u00b7 18 September", "lock_at": "2026-09-18T18:30:00Z", "note": "Tips and stakes were published before the first kickoff and are now sealed for settlement.", "policy": { "bet_policy": { "evidence_status": "paper-risk-screen-not-validated-edge", "flat_stake_units": 10.0, "longshot_decimal_odds": 5.0, "longshot_flat_stake_units": 5.0, "market_similarity_is_failure": false, "maximum_bets_per_fixture": 1, "maximum_bets_per_round": 5, "maximum_decimal_odds": 3.0, "maximum_longshot_bets": 1, "maximum_longshot_stake_fraction": 0.005, "maximum_longshot_stake_units": 5.0, "maximum_market_probability_gap": 0.15, "maximum_round_stake_fraction": 0.05, "maximum_round_stake_units": 50.0, "maximum_single_stake_fraction": 0.01, "maximum_total_open_exposure_fraction": 0.15, "minimum_point_ev": 0.02, "stake_assignment": "commissioner-flat-capped", "starting_bankroll_units": 1000.0, "unsupported_without_evidence_decimal_odds": 8.0 }, "policy_version": "balanced-paper-v2", "rubric_sha256": "80cb7810d1fbd5a1602a90ae5401e8c31933db70f1d1a60d8349918093ff7887", "rubric_version": "balanced-paper-v2", "validator_version": "2" }, "published_at": "2026-09-18T13:05:25.272392Z", "snapshot_id": "sha256:72830a72b29aaa94094a27c700c83c923c7d78c0bdf3e8fa6d47239c305a680b", "status": "sealed", "submission_meta": { "claude": { "decision_time": "2026-09-18T13:05:07.125916Z", "execution_provenance": { "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract", "adapter": { "exit_code": 0, "status": "valid", "timed_out": false, "valid": true, "validation_status": "live" }, "commissioner_fallback": { "bets_preserved": false, "status": "accepted", "validation_status": "live" } }, "generated_at": "2026-09-18T13:05:23.455547Z", "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback." }, "codex": { "decision_time": "2026-09-18T13:05:07.125916Z", "execution_provenance": { "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract", "adapter": { "exit_code": 0, "status": "valid", "timed_out": false, "valid": true, "validation_status": "live" }, "commissioner_fallback": { "bets_preserved": false, "status": "accepted", "validation_status": "live" } }, "generated_at": "2026-09-18T13:05:23.451313Z", "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback." }, "gemini": { "decision_time": "2026-09-18T13:05:07.125916Z", "execution_provenance": { "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract", "adapter": { "exit_code": 0, "status": "invalid", "timed_out": false, "valid": false, "validation_errors": [ "bet 1 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 2 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 3 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 4 outside-paper-price-band" ], "validation_status": "failed" }, "bet_policy_adjustment": { "adjusted": true, "applied": true, "dropped_by_reason": { "outside-paper-price-band": 4 }, "longshot_bets": 0, "official_bets": 1, "official_stake": 10.0, "policy_version": "balanced-paper-v2", "requested_bets": 5 }, "commissioner_fallback": { "bets_preserved": true, "status": "accepted", "validation_status": "live" } }, "generated_at": "2026-09-18T13:05:25.269674Z", "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback.", "policy_suppressed_bets": { "outside-paper-price-band": 4 } }, "gpt-luna": { "decision_time": "2026-09-18T13:05:07.125916Z", "execution_provenance": { "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract", "adapter": { "exit_code": 0, "status": "invalid", "timed_out": false, "valid": false, "validation_errors": [ "bet 0 unsupported-market-disagreement", "bet 1 unsupported-market-disagreement", "bet 2 unsupported-market-disagreement", "bet 4 unsupported-market-disagreement", "bet 5 unsupported-market-disagreement", "bet 6 unsupported-market-disagreement", "bet 9 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 13 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 17 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 17 listed odds 16.5800 require a pre-approved price-band evidence exception", "bet 18 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 19 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 20 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 20 listed odds 32.7700 require a pre-approved price-band evidence exception", "bet 22 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 23 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 24 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 25 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 26 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 27 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 28 outside-paper-price-band", "bet count 29 exceeds policy maximum 5", "bet 0 stake 37.160000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.386360", "bet 1 stake 37.160000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.386360", "bet 2 stake 37.160000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.386360", "bet 3 stake 37.160000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.386360", "bet 4 stake 37.160000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.386360", "bet 5 stake 37.160000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.386360", "bet 6 stake 37.160000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.386360", "bet 7 stake 36.480000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.386360", "bet 8 stake 34.470000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.386360", "bet 9 stake 33.830000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.386360", "bet 10 stake 33.230000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.386360", "bet 11 stake 29.550000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.386360", "bet 12 stake 28.910000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.386360", "bet 13 stake 24.800000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 4.693180", "bet 14 stake 22.980000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.386360", "bet 15 stake 21.380000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.386360", "bet 16 stake 20.770000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.386360", "bet 17 stake 16.020000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 4.693180", "bet 18 stake 14.770000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.386360", "bet 19 stake 14.390000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.386360", "bet 20 stake 14.360000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 4.693180", "bet 21 stake 13.480000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.386360", "bet 22 stake 13.320000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.386360", "bet 23 stake 11.570000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.386360", "bet 24 stake 11.410000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.386360", "fixture replay-1f99b95f0feed2e8 has 3 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-6d2b0d7faf97109c has 3 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-912b33d08352c7e7 has 3 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-aff0fe0cc4a8438f has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-b03446c67a7ceb00 has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-b97c358c295b7e90 has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-c59c3a9926ec7e38 has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-d669c69973803e33 has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-efcbdd278eb12795 has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-f1887be0d3047354 has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "longshot bet count 3 exceeds policy maximum 1", "longshot stake 55.180000 exceeds policy cap 5.000000", "total stake 677.480000 exceeds policy round cap 46.931800", "open exposure 687.130000 would exceed policy cap 140.795400" ], "validation_status": "failed" }, "bet_policy_adjustment": { "adjusted": true, "applied": true, "dropped_by_reason": { "outside-paper-price-band": 11, "round-bet-count-cap": 5, "unsupported-extreme-price": 2, "unsupported-market-disagreement": 6 }, "longshot_bets": 0, "official_bets": 5, "official_stake": 46.9, "policy_version": "balanced-paper-v2", "requested_bets": 29 }, "commissioner_fallback": { "bets_preserved": true, "status": "accepted", "validation_status": "live" } }, "generated_at": "2026-09-18T13:05:23.438114Z", "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback.", "policy_suppressed_bets": { "outside-paper-price-band": 11, "round-bet-count-cap": 5, "unsupported-extreme-price": 2, "unsupported-market-disagreement": 6 } }, "grok": { "decision_time": "2026-09-18T13:05:07.125916Z", "execution_provenance": { "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract", "adapter": { "exit_code": 0, "status": "valid", "timed_out": false, "valid": true, "validation_status": "live" }, "commissioner_fallback": { "bets_preserved": false, "status": "accepted", "validation_status": "live" } }, "generated_at": "2026-09-18T13:05:23.453247Z", "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback." }, "kimi": { "decision_time": "2026-09-18T13:05:07.125916Z", "execution_provenance": { "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract", "adapter": { "exit_code": 0, "status": "valid", "timed_out": false, "valid": true, "validation_status": "live" }, "commissioner_fallback": { "bets_preserved": false, "status": "accepted", "validation_status": "live" } }, "generated_at": "2026-09-18T13:05:23.454666Z", "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback." }, "kimi-k27": { "decision_time": "2026-09-18T13:05:07.125916Z", "execution_provenance": { "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract", "adapter": { "exit_code": 0, "status": "invalid", "timed_out": false, "valid": false, "validation_errors": [ "bet 0 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 0 listed odds 16.5800 require a pre-approved price-band evidence exception", "bet 1 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 4 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 6 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 7 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 8 unsupported-market-disagreement", "bet 12 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 17 unsupported-market-disagreement", "bet 18 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 22 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 23 outside-paper-price-band", "bet count 27 exceeds policy maximum 5", "bet 1 stake 6.750000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 4.861283", "bet 3 stake 35.680000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.722566", "bet 4 stake 34.660000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.722566", "bet 6 stake 13.400000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.722566", "bet 7 stake 13.980000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.722566", "bet 8 stake 48.610000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.722566", "bet 9 stake 24.160000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.722566", "bet 10 stake 48.610000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.722566", "bet 11 stake 20.590000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.722566", "bet 12 stake 21.530000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.722566", "bet 13 stake 11.740000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.722566", "bet 14 stake 18.190000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.722566", "bet 16 stake 15.370000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.722566", "bet 17 stake 48.610000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.722566", "bet 19 stake 18.540000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.722566", "bet 20 stake 27.770000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.722566", "bet 21 stake 48.610000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.722566", "bet 23 stake 29.810000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.722566", "bet 24 stake 43.910000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.722566", "bet 25 stake 32.160000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.722566", "bet 26 stake 48.610000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 9.722566", "fixture replay-4e03b1b64a913d9b has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-599b883f862cd11e has 3 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-62b066c3a5a1bee3 has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-6d2b0d7faf97109c has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-6e6b5bcfe23ea03a has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-912b33d08352c7e7 has 3 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-aff0fe0cc4a8438f has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-b97c358c295b7e90 has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-e0bf60ea33165742 has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "fixture replay-f1887be0d3047354 has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "longshot bet count 2 exceeds policy maximum 1", "longshot stake 7.940000 exceeds policy cap 5.000000", "total stake 640.220000 exceeds policy round cap 48.612830", "open exposure 640.220000 would exceed policy cap 145.838490" ], "validation_status": "failed" }, "bet_policy_adjustment": { "adjusted": true, "applied": true, "dropped_by_reason": { "fixture-bet-count-cap": 1, "outside-paper-price-band": 8, "round-bet-count-cap": 10, "unsupported-extreme-price": 1, "unsupported-market-disagreement": 2 }, "longshot_bets": 0, "official_bets": 5, "official_stake": 48.6, "policy_version": "balanced-paper-v2", "requested_bets": 27 }, "commissioner_fallback": { "bets_preserved": true, "status": "accepted", "validation_status": "live" } }, "generated_at": "2026-09-18T13:05:25.164099Z", "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback.", "policy_suppressed_bets": { "fixture-bet-count-cap": 1, "outside-paper-price-band": 8, "round-bet-count-cap": 10, "unsupported-extreme-price": 1, "unsupported-market-disagreement": 2 } }, "minimax": { "decision_time": "2026-09-18T13:05:07.125916Z", "execution_provenance": { "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract", "adapter": { "exit_code": 0, "status": "invalid", "timed_out": false, "valid": false, "validation_errors": [ "bet 0 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 0 listed odds 32.7700 require a pre-approved price-band evidence exception", "bet 1 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 0 stake 5.660000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 5.000000", "bet 1 stake 14.300000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 5.000000", "fixture replay-6d2b0d7faf97109c has 2 bets; policy maximum is 1", "longshot bet count 2 exceeds policy maximum 1", "longshot stake 19.960000 exceeds policy cap 5.000000" ], "validation_status": "failed" }, "bet_policy_adjustment": { "adjusted": true, "applied": true, "dropped_by_reason": { "outside-paper-price-band": 1, "unsupported-extreme-price": 1 }, "longshot_bets": 0, "official_bets": 0, "official_stake": 0.0, "policy_version": "balanced-paper-v2", "requested_bets": 2 }, "commissioner_fallback": { "bets_preserved": false, "status": "accepted", "validation_status": "live" } }, "generated_at": "2026-09-18T13:05:23.466714Z", "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback.", "policy_suppressed_bets": { "outside-paper-price-band": 1, "unsupported-extreme-price": 1 } }, "minimax-m3": { "decision_time": "2026-09-18T13:05:07.125916Z", "execution_provenance": { "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract", "adapter": { "exit_code": 0, "status": "invalid", "timed_out": false, "valid": false, "validation_errors": [ "bet 1 unsupported-market-disagreement", "bet 2 unsupported-market-disagreement", "bet 3 unsupported-market-disagreement", "bet 4 unsupported-market-disagreement", "bet 5 unsupported-market-disagreement", "bet 6 unsupported-market-disagreement", "bet 8 unsupported-market-disagreement", "bet 9 unsupported-market-disagreement", "bet 10 unsupported-market-disagreement", "bet 11 unsupported-market-disagreement", "bet 12 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 13 unsupported-market-disagreement", "bet 14 unsupported-market-disagreement", "bet count 15 exceeds policy maximum 5", "bet 0 stake 80.920000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 10.000000", "bet 1 stake 75.200000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 10.000000", "bet 2 stake 80.920000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 10.000000", "bet 3 stake 80.920000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 10.000000", "bet 4 stake 80.920000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 10.000000", "bet 5 stake 45.430000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 10.000000", "bet 6 stake 80.740000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 10.000000", "bet 7 stake 29.500000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 10.000000", "bet 8 stake 80.920000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 10.000000", "bet 9 stake 69.150000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 10.000000", "bet 10 stake 80.920000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 10.000000", "bet 11 stake 80.920000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 10.000000", "bet 12 stake 12.820000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 10.000000", "bet 13 stake 80.920000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 10.000000", "bet 14 stake 80.920000 exceeds policy single-bet cap 10.000000", "total stake 1041.120000 exceeds policy round cap 50.000000", "open exposure 1041.120000 would exceed policy cap 156.170460" ], "validation_status": "failed" }, "bet_policy_adjustment": { "adjusted": true, "applied": true, "dropped_by_reason": { "outside-paper-price-band": 1, "unsupported-market-disagreement": 12 }, "longshot_bets": 0, "official_bets": 2, "official_stake": 20.0, "policy_version": "balanced-paper-v2", "requested_bets": 15 }, "commissioner_fallback": { "bets_preserved": true, "status": "accepted", "validation_status": "live" } }, "generated_at": "2026-09-18T13:05:23.456248Z", "notes": "Commissioner predict(features) compatibility fallback.", "policy_suppressed_bets": { "outside-paper-price-band": 1, "unsupported-market-disagreement": 12 } } } }