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        "poisson": {
          "away": 0.19168046,
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        "qwen": {
          "away": 0.06420220549543876,
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          "under25": 0.42447916666666663
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      "home": "Milan",
      "id": "replay-89bcd19b77cc5c52",
      "kickoff": "2026-09-20T18:45:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 11.46,
        "draw": 5.58,
        "home": 1.25,
        "over25": 1.63,
        "under25": 2.21
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      "score": null
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    {
      "away": "Sociedad",
      "competition": "La Liga",
      "forecasts": {
        "claude": {
          "away": 0.39993359652179855,
          "draw": 0.27543778769044386,
          "home": 0.32462861578775754,
          "over25": 0.48223594544127274,
          "under25": 0.5177640545587272
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        "codex": {
          "away": 0.38204837162664346,
          "draw": 0.27321200859820277,
          "home": 0.34473961977515377,
          "over25": 0.49576520001223634,
          "under25": 0.5042347999877637
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        "gemini": {
          "away": 0.37347063473160586,
          "draw": 0.27300962631596576,
          "home": 0.3535197389524284,
          "over25": 0.4990905957442595,
          "under25": 0.5009094042557405
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        "glm-flash": {
          "away": 0.36954158882247856,
          "draw": 0.28737464233612153,
          "home": 0.34308376884139996,
          "over25": 0.48329561106227426,
          "under25": 0.5167043889377257
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        "kimi": {
          "away": 0.38444146528012985,
          "draw": 0.27841245784715535,
          "home": 0.33714607687271486,
          "over25": 0.47619420479373037,
          "under25": 0.5238057952062696
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        "market": {
          "away": 0.3713968957871397,
          "draw": 0.27937915742793795,
          "home": 0.3492239467849224,
          "over25": 0.4959785522788205,
          "under25": 0.5040214477211796
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        "mimo": {
          "away": 0.35817698316316193,
          "draw": 0.2668383466998884,
          "home": 0.3749846701369497,
          "over25": 0.4917199211769243,
          "under25": 0.5082800788230757
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        "poisson": {
          "away": 0.3207484,
          "draw": 0.28524612,
          "home": 0.39400548,
          "over25": 0.3947922,
          "under25": 0.6052078
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        "qwen": {
          "away": 0.37139689578713964,
          "draw": 0.27937915742793795,
          "home": 0.3492239467849224,
          "over25": 0.4959785522788205,
          "under25": 0.5040214477211795
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      },
      "home": "Valencia",
      "id": "replay-84d4a10714f594d3",
      "kickoff": "2026-09-20T19:00:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 2.52,
        "draw": 3.35,
        "home": 2.68,
        "over25": 1.88,
        "under25": 1.85
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      "score": null
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  ],
  "id": "daily-2026-09-19-r10",
  "kickoff_window": "Next 24 hours",
  "label": "Daily slate \u00b7 20 September",
  "lock_at": "2026-09-20T10:30:00Z",
  "note": "Tips and stakes were published before the first kickoff and are now sealed for settlement.",
  "policy": {
    "bet_policy": {
      "evidence_status": "required-paper-picks-not-a-positive-value-claim",
      "flat_stake_units": 1.0,
      "longshot_decimal_odds": 5.0,
      "longshot_flat_stake_units": 5.0,
      "market_similarity_is_failure": false,
      "maximum_bets_per_fixture": 1,
      "maximum_bets_per_round": 3,
      "maximum_decimal_odds": 3.0,
      "maximum_longshot_bets": 1,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_fraction": 0.005,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_units": 5.0,
      "maximum_market_probability_gap": 0.15,
      "maximum_round_stake_fraction": 0.05,
      "maximum_round_stake_units": 3.0,
      "maximum_single_stake_fraction": 0.01,
      "maximum_total_open_exposure_fraction": 0.15,
      "minimum_point_ev": -1.0,
      "selection_mode": "required-ranked-paper",
      "stake_assignment": "commissioner-flat-capped",
      "starting_bankroll_units": 1000.0,
      "unsupported_without_evidence_decimal_odds": 8.0
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    "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "rubric_sha256": "7ef0538587aff0e3fee1741d26f53b9190b864412103d833aa4abcaf19ae761e",
    "rubric_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "validator_version": "2"
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  "published_at": "2026-09-19T21:58:12.061833Z",
  "snapshot_id": "sha256:b3d3980f4ee49bacf945e834cf1da4868a4697e4fa6e1afe381471a1a2157ff0",
  "status": "sealed",
  "submission_meta": {
    "claude": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-19T21:57:40.784093Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 42,
            "round-bet-count-cap": 63,
            "unsupported-extreme-price": 2
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 110,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
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      "generated_at": "2026-09-19T21:58:02.976019Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "codex": {
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      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
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          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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          "validation_status": "failed"
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 42,
            "round-bet-count-cap": 63,
            "unsupported-extreme-price": 2
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 110,
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        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
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      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-19T21:58:02.980720Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "gemini": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-19T21:57:40.784093Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
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        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "bet 0 outside-paper-price-band",
            "bet 1 outside-paper-price-band",
            "bet 2 outside-paper-price-band"
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          "validation_status": "failed"
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
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          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
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            "round-bet-count-cap": 63,
            "unsupported-extreme-price": 2
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 110,
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        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
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      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-19T21:58:05.073474Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "glm-flash": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-19T21:57:40.784093Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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          "validation_status": "failed"
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 42,
            "round-bet-count-cap": 63,
            "unsupported-extreme-price": 2
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 110,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
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      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-19T21:58:02.979009Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "kimi": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-19T21:57:40.784093Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 42,
            "round-bet-count-cap": 63,
            "unsupported-extreme-price": 2
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 110,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
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      "generated_at": "2026-09-19T21:58:03.002505Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "mimo": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-19T21:57:40.784093Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 42,
            "round-bet-count-cap": 63,
            "unsupported-extreme-price": 2
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 110,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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        "commissioner_fallback": {
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          "status": "accepted",
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      "generated_at": "2026-09-19T21:58:12.054204Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "qwen": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-19T21:57:40.784093Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
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          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 42,
            "round-bet-count-cap": 63,
            "unsupported-extreme-price": 2
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 110,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
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      "generated_at": "2026-09-19T21:58:02.983395Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    }
  }
}