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          "under25": 0.4151133597486547
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        "market": {
          "away": 0.17004895313828683,
          "draw": 0.2116935947231734,
          "home": 0.6182574521385397,
          "over25": 0.5922077922077923,
          "under25": 0.4077922077922079
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        "mimo": {
          "away": 0.20567394453778642,
          "draw": 0.21507930201188297,
          "home": 0.5792467534503306,
          "over25": 0.5677748009803564,
          "under25": 0.4322251990196436
        },
        "poisson": {
          "away": 0.19010039,
          "draw": 0.23079855,
          "home": 0.57910107,
          "over25": 0.50614896,
          "under25": 0.49385104
        },
        "qwen": {
          "away": 0.19004895313828682,
          "draw": 0.21169359472317342,
          "home": 0.5982574521385398,
          "over25": 0.5922077922077922,
          "under25": 0.4077922077922078
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      },
      "home": "York",
      "id": "replay-6babd3f414e8a3c0",
      "kickoff": "2026-09-26T14:00:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 5.49,
        "draw": 4.41,
        "home": 1.51,
        "over25": 1.57,
        "under25": 2.28
      },
      "score": null
    }
  ],
  "id": "daily-2026-09-25",
  "kickoff_window": "Next 24 hours",
  "label": "Daily slate \u00b7 26 September",
  "lock_at": "2026-09-26T14:00:00Z",
  "note": "Tips and stakes were published before the first kickoff and are now sealed for settlement.",
  "policy": {
    "bet_policy": {
      "evidence_status": "required-paper-picks-not-a-positive-value-claim",
      "flat_stake_units": 1.0,
      "longshot_decimal_odds": 5.0,
      "longshot_flat_stake_units": 5.0,
      "market_similarity_is_failure": false,
      "maximum_bets_per_fixture": 1,
      "maximum_bets_per_round": 3,
      "maximum_decimal_odds": 3.0,
      "maximum_longshot_bets": 1,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_fraction": 0.005,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_units": 5.0,
      "maximum_market_probability_gap": 0.15,
      "maximum_round_stake_fraction": 0.05,
      "maximum_round_stake_units": 3.0,
      "maximum_single_stake_fraction": 0.01,
      "maximum_total_open_exposure_fraction": 0.15,
      "minimum_point_ev": -1.0,
      "selection_mode": "required-ranked-paper",
      "stake_assignment": "commissioner-flat-capped",
      "starting_bankroll_units": 1000.0,
      "unsupported_without_evidence_decimal_odds": 8.0
    },
    "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "rubric_sha256": "7ef0538587aff0e3fee1741d26f53b9190b864412103d833aa4abcaf19ae761e",
    "rubric_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "validator_version": "2"
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  "published_at": "2026-09-25T14:05:31.566709Z",
  "snapshot_id": "sha256:18c220e81d082a973877c79d04f7dd8914b30a2ad18d44d078ee88ca352c67b0",
  "status": "sealed",
  "submission_meta": {
    "claude": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-25T14:05:10.455282Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 23,
            "round-bet-count-cap": 39
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 65,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
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      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-25T14:05:23.208338Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "codex": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-25T14:05:10.455282Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
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        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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          "validation_status": "failed"
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 23,
            "round-bet-count-cap": 39
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 65,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
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      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-25T14:05:23.211710Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "gemini": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-25T14:05:10.455282Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
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        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "bet 0 outside-paper-price-band"
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          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
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            "round-bet-count-cap": 39
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 65,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
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      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-25T14:05:25.002706Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "glm-flash": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-25T14:05:10.455282Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 23,
            "round-bet-count-cap": 39
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 65,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
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      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-25T14:05:23.230696Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "kimi": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-25T14:05:10.455282Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 23,
            "round-bet-count-cap": 39
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 65,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-25T14:05:23.219433Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "mimo": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-25T14:05:10.455282Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 23,
            "round-bet-count-cap": 39
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 65,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
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      "generated_at": "2026-09-25T14:05:31.563022Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "qwen": {
      "decision_time": "2026-09-25T14:05:10.455282Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 23,
            "round-bet-count-cap": 39
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 65,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
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      },
      "generated_at": "2026-09-25T14:05:23.201710Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    }
  }
}