{
  "available_bankrolls": {
    "claude": 997.31,
    "codex": 1000.2,
    "gemini": 1009.2541,
    "glm-flash": 1003.04,
    "kimi": 1003.14,
    "mimo": 1000.78,
    "qwen": 995.35
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  "bets": [
    {
      "bot_id": "claude",
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      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.04932985,
      "odds": 1.68,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.566, model EV=-4.9%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "codex",
      "fixture_id": "replay-4f331964e1e4e113",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.06016215,
      "odds": 1.68,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.559, model EV=-6.0%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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      "bot_id": "gemini",
      "fixture_id": "replay-4f331964e1e4e113",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.02932176,
      "odds": 2.14,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.454, model EV=-2.9%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "kimi",
      "fixture_id": "replay-4f331964e1e4e113",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.06754565,
      "odds": 2.14,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.436, model EV=-6.8%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "glm-flash",
      "fixture_id": "replay-4f331964e1e4e113",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.05357284,
      "odds": 2.14,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.442, model EV=-5.4%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "mimo",
      "fixture_id": "replay-4f331964e1e4e113",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.0317234,
      "odds": 2.14,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.452, model EV=-3.2%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "qwen",
      "fixture_id": "replay-4f331964e1e4e113",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.05168465,
      "odds": 1.68,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.564, model EV=-5.2%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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  "fingerprint": "sha256:0ebf2a31e79cadf4c9920570fb7d0e2509e7dda77c7653f122607322efb0d0b7",
  "fixtures": [
    {
      "away": "Tranmere",
      "competition": "League Two",
      "forecasts": {
        "claude": {
          "away": 0.20160187711921626,
          "draw": 0.23252303535075883,
          "home": 0.5658750875300249,
          "over25": 0.575671811326362,
          "under25": 0.424328188673638
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        "codex": {
          "away": 0.20432975319029628,
          "draw": 0.23624295345575425,
          "home": 0.5594272933539495,
          "over25": 0.5644093994117574,
          "under25": 0.4355906005882426
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        "gemini": {
          "away": 0.193683441822626,
          "draw": 0.2307635415230653,
          "home": 0.5755530166543087,
          "over25": 0.5464120380589194,
          "under25": 0.45358796194108064
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        "glm-flash": {
          "away": 0.2098421490454051,
          "draw": 0.23850726081151996,
          "home": 0.5516505901430749,
          "over25": 0.5577443169011927,
          "under25": 0.44225568309880725
        },
        "kimi": {
          "away": 0.21841444031425553,
          "draw": 0.2359439351659047,
          "home": 0.5456416245198398,
          "over25": 0.5642736660050413,
          "under25": 0.43572633399495875
        },
        "market": {
          "away": 0.20817713909376645,
          "draw": 0.23544467368539332,
          "home": 0.5563781872208402,
          "over25": 0.5646437994722956,
          "under25": 0.4353562005277045
        },
        "mimo": {
          "away": 0.23054365514383038,
          "draw": 0.2324103028965769,
          "home": 0.5370460419595927,
          "over25": 0.547534297617393,
          "under25": 0.45246570238260697
        },
        "poisson": {
          "away": 0.18975229,
          "draw": 0.21846557,
          "home": 0.59178214,
          "over25": 0.55787664,
          "under25": 0.44212336
        },
        "qwen": {
          "away": 0.2000819009985283,
          "draw": 0.23544467368539335,
          "home": 0.5644734253160784,
          "over25": 0.5646437994722956,
          "under25": 0.4353562005277044
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      },
      "home": "Chesterfield",
      "id": "replay-4f331964e1e4e113",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-03T11:30:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 4.49,
        "draw": 3.97,
        "home": 1.68,
        "over25": 1.65,
        "under25": 2.14
      },
      "score": null
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  ],
  "id": "daily-2026-10-02",
  "kickoff_window": "Next 24 hours",
  "label": "Daily slate \u00b7 3 October",
  "lock_at": "2026-10-03T11:30:00Z",
  "note": "Tips and stakes were published before the first kickoff and are now sealed for settlement.",
  "policy": {
    "bet_policy": {
      "evidence_status": "required-paper-picks-not-a-positive-value-claim",
      "flat_stake_units": 1.0,
      "longshot_decimal_odds": 5.0,
      "longshot_flat_stake_units": 5.0,
      "market_similarity_is_failure": false,
      "maximum_bets_per_fixture": 1,
      "maximum_bets_per_round": 3,
      "maximum_decimal_odds": 3.0,
      "maximum_longshot_bets": 1,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_fraction": 0.005,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_units": 5.0,
      "maximum_market_probability_gap": 0.15,
      "maximum_round_stake_fraction": 0.05,
      "maximum_round_stake_units": 3.0,
      "maximum_single_stake_fraction": 0.01,
      "maximum_total_open_exposure_fraction": 0.15,
      "minimum_point_ev": -1.0,
      "selection_mode": "required-ranked-paper",
      "stake_assignment": "commissioner-flat-capped",
      "starting_bankroll_units": 1000.0,
      "unsupported_without_evidence_decimal_odds": 8.0
    },
    "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "rubric_sha256": "7ef0538587aff0e3fee1741d26f53b9190b864412103d833aa4abcaf19ae761e",
    "rubric_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "validator_version": "2"
  },
  "published_at": "2026-10-02T12:05:24.430541Z",
  "snapshot_id": "sha256:62a1cadf6ee0c83bd778d7ea80f0fc5fd9871cf26828da4b27376cc528d57326",
  "status": "sealed",
  "submission_meta": {
    "claude": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-02T12:05:04.809368Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-02T12:05:16.449699Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "codex": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-02T12:05:04.809368Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-02T12:05:16.461047Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "gemini": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-02T12:05:04.809368Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-02T12:05:18.166990Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "glm-flash": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-02T12:05:04.809368Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-02T12:05:16.455869Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "kimi": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-02T12:05:04.809368Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-02T12:05:16.449084Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "mimo": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-02T12:05:04.809368Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-02T12:05:24.428292Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "qwen": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-02T12:05:04.809368Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-02T12:05:16.437131Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    }
  }
}