{
  "available_bankrolls": {
    "claude": 988.99,
    "codex": 991.88,
    "gemini": 1003.5441,
    "glm-flash": 996.86,
    "kimi": 994.98,
    "mimo": 993.73,
    "qwen": 988.7
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  "bets": [
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      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.00185773,
      "odds": 2.02,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.494, model EV=-0.2%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "codex",
      "fixture_id": "replay-dd8b7888cb4306d5",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.02658672,
      "odds": 2.27,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.429, model EV=-2.7%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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      "bot_id": "gemini",
      "fixture_id": "replay-dd8b7888cb4306d5",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.02890266,
      "odds": 2.02,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.481, model EV=-2.9%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "kimi",
      "fixture_id": "replay-dd8b7888cb4306d5",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.03192323,
      "odds": 2.02,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.479, model EV=-3.2%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "glm-flash",
      "fixture_id": "replay-dd8b7888cb4306d5",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.05373377,
      "odds": 1.75,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.541, model EV=-5.4%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "mimo",
      "fixture_id": "replay-dd8b7888cb4306d5",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.05188038,
      "odds": 2.02,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.469, model EV=-5.2%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "qwen",
      "fixture_id": "replay-dd8b7888cb4306d5",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.05815206,
      "odds": 2.27,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.415, model EV=-5.8%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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  "fingerprint": "sha256:ebbb409d2dfe5e11616f7945f8362184b087a873c126aa0a1155b389a3fb9fd7",
  "fixtures": [
    {
      "away": "Fiorentina",
      "competition": "Serie A",
      "forecasts": {
        "claude": {
          "away": 0.4244796406580687,
          "draw": 0.28700651512984293,
          "home": 0.28851384421208837,
          "over25": 0.4941298389297429,
          "under25": 0.5058701610702572
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          "away": 0.4288164228332412,
          "draw": 0.2795577779618721,
          "home": 0.29162579920488674,
          "over25": 0.46464493028255305,
          "under25": 0.535355069717447
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          "away": 0.3990175985935919,
          "draw": 0.278795105899136,
          "home": 0.3221872955072721,
          "over25": 0.4807412565152781,
          "under25": 0.5192587434847219
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        "glm-flash": {
          "away": 0.41362844010120825,
          "draw": 0.29092818094559225,
          "home": 0.2954433789531995,
          "over25": 0.4592764416811544,
          "under25": 0.5407235583188457
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        "kimi": {
          "away": 0.41992899449649107,
          "draw": 0.2856870158618427,
          "home": 0.29438398964166623,
          "over25": 0.4792459233308848,
          "under25": 0.5207540766691152
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        "market": {
          "away": 0.41491098872950816,
          "draw": 0.288910412397541,
          "home": 0.2961785988729508,
          "over25": 0.46419098143236076,
          "under25": 0.5358090185676393
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        "mimo": {
          "away": 0.40684063863538383,
          "draw": 0.2743932930925212,
          "home": 0.31876606827209497,
          "over25": 0.46936615029850637,
          "under25": 0.5306338497014936
        },
        "poisson": {
          "away": 0.39832541,
          "draw": 0.26531966,
          "home": 0.33635493,
          "over25": 0.47275264,
          "under25": 0.52724736
        },
        "qwen": {
          "away": 0.41491098872950816,
          "draw": 0.288910412397541,
          "home": 0.2961785988729508,
          "over25": 0.46419098143236076,
          "under25": 0.5358090185676392
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      },
      "home": "Genoa",
      "id": "replay-dd8b7888cb4306d5",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-10T13:00:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 2.27,
        "draw": 3.26,
        "home": 3.18,
        "over25": 2.02,
        "under25": 1.75
      },
      "score": null
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  "id": "daily-2026-10-09-r3",
  "kickoff_window": "Next 24 hours",
  "label": "Daily slate \u00b7 10 October",
  "lock_at": "2026-10-10T13:00:00Z",
  "note": "Tips and stakes were published before the first kickoff and are now sealed for settlement.",
  "policy": {
    "bet_policy": {
      "evidence_status": "required-paper-picks-not-a-positive-value-claim",
      "flat_stake_units": 1.0,
      "longshot_decimal_odds": 5.0,
      "longshot_flat_stake_units": 5.0,
      "market_similarity_is_failure": false,
      "maximum_bets_per_fixture": 1,
      "maximum_bets_per_round": 3,
      "maximum_decimal_odds": 3.0,
      "maximum_longshot_bets": 1,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_fraction": 0.005,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_units": 5.0,
      "maximum_market_probability_gap": 0.15,
      "maximum_round_stake_fraction": 0.05,
      "maximum_round_stake_units": 3.0,
      "maximum_single_stake_fraction": 0.01,
      "maximum_total_open_exposure_fraction": 0.15,
      "minimum_point_ev": -1.0,
      "selection_mode": "required-ranked-paper",
      "stake_assignment": "commissioner-flat-capped",
      "starting_bankroll_units": 1000.0,
      "unsupported_without_evidence_decimal_odds": 8.0
    },
    "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "rubric_sha256": "7ef0538587aff0e3fee1741d26f53b9190b864412103d833aa4abcaf19ae761e",
    "rubric_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "validator_version": "2"
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  "published_at": "2026-10-09T13:05:27.037445Z",
  "snapshot_id": "sha256:35ab5eb5c419320333a51442acf524028f09f11c86767dd023282603be7ccb5f",
  "status": "sealed",
  "submission_meta": {
    "claude": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-09T13:05:09.760126Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-09T13:05:19.125765Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "codex": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-09T13:05:09.760126Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-09T13:05:19.120291Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "gemini": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-09T13:05:09.760126Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-09T13:05:20.803077Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "glm-flash": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-09T13:05:09.760126Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-09T13:05:19.122900Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "kimi": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-09T13:05:09.760126Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-09T13:05:19.123675Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "mimo": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-09T13:05:09.760126Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-09T13:05:27.035289Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "qwen": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-09T13:05:09.760126Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-09T13:05:19.107092Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    }
  }
}