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0.5752156756558213, "over25": 0.5236459449442861, "under25": 0.47635405505571393 }, "gemini": { "away": 0.1429224563493064, "draw": 0.19467142901109996, "home": 0.6624061146395936, "over25": 0.5697913878504918, "under25": 0.43020861214950823 }, "glm-flash": { "away": 0.18820844950602378, "draw": 0.24470456367061622, "home": 0.56708698682336, "over25": 0.5146922890036646, "under25": 0.4853077109963354 }, "kimi": { "away": 0.18801095515002614, "draw": 0.24147119767087416, "home": 0.5705178471790997, "over25": 0.5023498796157055, "under25": 0.49765012038429446 }, "market": { "away": 0.19088425644723575, "draw": 0.23995475938996985, "home": 0.5691609841627944, "over25": 0.5240641711229947, "under25": 0.47593582887700536 }, "mimo": { "away": 0.21386451355960273, "draw": 0.23594922217540554, "home": 0.5501862642649917, "over25": 0.514057288693445, "under25": 0.485942711306555 }, "poisson": { "away": 0.18036478, "draw": 0.20802423, "home": 0.611611, "over25": 0.5899602, "under25": 0.4100398 }, "qwen": { "away": 0.16183663739961668, "draw": 0.23995475938996985, "home": 0.5982086032104135, "over25": 0.5240641711229947, "under25": 0.47593582887700525 } }, "home": "York", "id": "replay-86ce82c47a9f66aa", "kickoff": "2026-10-10T14:00:00Z", "odds": { "away": 4.89, "draw": 3.89, "home": 1.64, "over25": 1.78, "under25": 1.96 }, "score": null } ], "id": "daily-2026-10-09-r4", "kickoff_window": "Next 24 hours", "label": "Daily slate \u00b7 10 October", "lock_at": "2026-10-10T13:30:00Z", "note": "Tips and stakes were published before the first kickoff and are now sealed for settlement.", "policy": { "bet_policy": { "evidence_status": "required-paper-picks-not-a-positive-value-claim", "flat_stake_units": 1.0, "longshot_decimal_odds": 5.0, "longshot_flat_stake_units": 5.0, "market_similarity_is_failure": false, "maximum_bets_per_fixture": 1, "maximum_bets_per_round": 3, "maximum_decimal_odds": 3.0, "maximum_longshot_bets": 1, "maximum_longshot_stake_fraction": 0.005, "maximum_longshot_stake_units": 5.0, "maximum_market_probability_gap": 0.15, "maximum_round_stake_fraction": 0.05, "maximum_round_stake_units": 3.0, "maximum_single_stake_fraction": 0.01, "maximum_total_open_exposure_fraction": 0.15, "minimum_point_ev": -1.0, "selection_mode": "required-ranked-paper", "stake_assignment": "commissioner-flat-capped", "starting_bankroll_units": 1000.0, "unsupported_without_evidence_decimal_odds": 8.0 }, "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3", "rubric_sha256": "7ef0538587aff0e3fee1741d26f53b9190b864412103d833aa4abcaf19ae761e", "rubric_version": "ranked-paper-v3", "validator_version": "2" }, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:05:26.835621Z", "snapshot_id": "sha256:93a905aa8bcbeea191746d34a03f661356477eddad8575d916c621c1335e3b0d", "status": "sealed", "submission_meta": { "claude": { "decision_time": "2026-10-09T14:05:09.489607Z", "execution_provenance": { "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract", "adapter": { "exit_code": 0, "status": "invalid", "timed_out": false, "valid": false, "validation_errors": [ "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes" ], "validation_status": "failed" }, "bet_policy_adjustment": { "adapter_requested_bets": 0, "adjusted": true, "applied": true, "dropped_by_reason": { "fixture-bet-count-cap": 1, "outside-paper-price-band": 55, "round-bet-count-cap": 119, "unsupported-extreme-price": 2 }, "longshot_bets": 0, "official_bets": 3, "official_stake": 3.0, "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3", "requested_bets": 180, "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper" }, "commissioner_fallback": { "bets_preserved": false, "status": "accepted", "validation_status": "live" } }, "generated_at": "2026-10-09T14:05:18.901250Z", "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.", "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper" }, "codex": { "decision_time": "2026-10-09T14:05:09.489607Z", "execution_provenance": { "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract", "adapter": { "exit_code": 0, "status": "invalid", "timed_out": false, "valid": false, "validation_errors": [ "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes" ], "validation_status": "failed" }, "bet_policy_adjustment": { "adapter_requested_bets": 0, "adjusted": true, "applied": true, "dropped_by_reason": { "outside-paper-price-band": 55, "round-bet-count-cap": 120, "unsupported-extreme-price": 2 }, "longshot_bets": 0, "official_bets": 3, "official_stake": 3.0, "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3", "requested_bets": 180, "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper" }, "commissioner_fallback": { "bets_preserved": false, "status": "accepted", "validation_status": "live" } }, "generated_at": "2026-10-09T14:05:18.912374Z", "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.", "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper" }, "gemini": { "decision_time": "2026-10-09T14:05:09.489607Z", "execution_provenance": { "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract", "adapter": { "exit_code": 0, "status": "invalid", "timed_out": false, "valid": false, "validation_errors": [ "bet 0 outside-paper-price-band", "bet 2 outside-paper-price-band" ], "validation_status": "failed" }, "bet_policy_adjustment": { "adapter_requested_bets": 0, "adjusted": true, "applied": true, "dropped_by_reason": { "outside-paper-price-band": 55, "round-bet-count-cap": 120, "unsupported-extreme-price": 2 }, "longshot_bets": 0, "official_bets": 3, "official_stake": 3.0, "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3", "requested_bets": 180, "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper" }, "commissioner_fallback": { "bets_preserved": false, "status": "accepted", "validation_status": "live" } }, "generated_at": "2026-10-09T14:05:20.593777Z", "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.", "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper" }, "glm-flash": { "decision_time": "2026-10-09T14:05:09.489607Z", "execution_provenance": { "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract", "adapter": { "exit_code": 0, "status": "invalid", "timed_out": false, "valid": false, "validation_errors": [ "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes" ], "validation_status": "failed" }, "bet_policy_adjustment": { "adapter_requested_bets": 0, "adjusted": true, "applied": true, "dropped_by_reason": { "outside-paper-price-band": 55, "round-bet-count-cap": 120, "unsupported-extreme-price": 2 }, "longshot_bets": 0, "official_bets": 3, "official_stake": 3.0, "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3", "requested_bets": 180, "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper" }, "commissioner_fallback": { "bets_preserved": false, "status": "accepted", "validation_status": "live" } }, "generated_at": "2026-10-09T14:05:18.918323Z", "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.", "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper" }, "kimi": { "decision_time": "2026-10-09T14:05:09.489607Z", "execution_provenance": { "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract", "adapter": { "exit_code": 0, "status": "invalid", "timed_out": false, "valid": false, "validation_errors": [ "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes" ], "validation_status": "failed" }, "bet_policy_adjustment": { "adapter_requested_bets": 0, "adjusted": true, "applied": true, "dropped_by_reason": { "outside-paper-price-band": 55, "round-bet-count-cap": 120, "unsupported-extreme-price": 2 }, "longshot_bets": 0, "official_bets": 3, "official_stake": 3.0, "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3", "requested_bets": 180, "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper" }, "commissioner_fallback": { "bets_preserved": false, "status": "accepted", "validation_status": "live" } }, "generated_at": "2026-10-09T14:05:18.915741Z", "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.", "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper" }, "mimo": { "decision_time": "2026-10-09T14:05:09.489607Z", "execution_provenance": { "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract", "adapter": { "exit_code": 0, "status": "invalid", "timed_out": false, "valid": false, "validation_errors": [ "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes" ], "validation_status": "failed" }, "bet_policy_adjustment": { "adapter_requested_bets": 0, "adjusted": true, "applied": true, "dropped_by_reason": { "outside-paper-price-band": 55, "round-bet-count-cap": 120, "unsupported-extreme-price": 2 }, "longshot_bets": 0, "official_bets": 3, "official_stake": 3.0, "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3", "requested_bets": 180, "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper" }, "commissioner_fallback": { "bets_preserved": false, "status": "accepted", "validation_status": "live" } }, "generated_at": "2026-10-09T14:05:26.831297Z", "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.", "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper" }, "qwen": { "decision_time": "2026-10-09T14:05:09.489607Z", "execution_provenance": { "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract", "adapter": { "exit_code": 0, "status": "invalid", "timed_out": false, "valid": false, "validation_errors": [ "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes" ], "validation_status": "failed" }, "bet_policy_adjustment": { "adapter_requested_bets": 0, "adjusted": true, "applied": true, "dropped_by_reason": { "outside-paper-price-band": 55, "round-bet-count-cap": 120, "unsupported-extreme-price": 2 }, "longshot_bets": 0, "official_bets": 3, "official_stake": 3.0, "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3", "requested_bets": 180, "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper" }, "commissioner_fallback": { "bets_preserved": false, "status": "accepted", "validation_status": "live" } }, "generated_at": "2026-10-09T14:05:18.897549Z", "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.", "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper" } } }