{
  "available_bankrolls": {
    "claude": 982.99,
    "codex": 985.88,
    "gemini": 997.5441,
    "glm-flash": 990.86,
    "kimi": 988.98,
    "mimo": 987.73,
    "qwen": 982.7
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  "bets": [
    {
      "bot_id": "claude",
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      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.01389179,
      "odds": 1.13,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.873, model EV=-1.4%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "codex",
      "fixture_id": "replay-ce1716cd47270f1d",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.05887735,
      "odds": 1.13,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.833, model EV=-5.9%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "gemini",
      "fixture_id": "replay-ce1716cd47270f1d",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.06723727,
      "odds": 1.13,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.825, model EV=-6.7%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "kimi",
      "fixture_id": "replay-ce1716cd47270f1d",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.06628395,
      "odds": 1.13,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.826, model EV=-6.6%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "glm-flash",
      "fixture_id": "replay-ce1716cd47270f1d",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.07000332,
      "odds": 1.13,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.823, model EV=-7.0%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "mimo",
      "fixture_id": "replay-ce1716cd47270f1d",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.09493252,
      "odds": 1.33,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.681, model EV=-9.5%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "qwen",
      "fixture_id": "replay-ce1716cd47270f1d",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.02130265,
      "odds": 1.13,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.866, model EV=-2.1%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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  "fingerprint": "sha256:484fa1755178490c1f7d7a40242ba8f8741a07be438821669544a4255d3fa343",
  "fixtures": [
    {
      "away": "Parma",
      "competition": "Serie A",
      "forecasts": {
        "claude": {
          "away": 0.03703110847863962,
          "draw": 0.09030675879655996,
          "home": 0.8726621327248004,
          "over25": 0.7379601207983162,
          "under25": 0.2620398792016838
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        "codex": {
          "away": 0.050761194424579686,
          "draw": 0.11638690133994792,
          "home": 0.8328519042354724,
          "over25": 0.7033043121632532,
          "under25": 0.2966956878367468
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        "gemini": {
          "away": 0.057431525735810535,
          "draw": 0.11711472973494544,
          "home": 0.825453744529244,
          "over25": 0.6868580107529031,
          "under25": 0.3131419892470969
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        "glm-flash": {
          "away": 0.057226990647609624,
          "draw": 0.11976709430785813,
          "home": 0.8230059150445322,
          "over25": 0.6903168730042157,
          "under25": 0.30968312699578426
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        "kimi": {
          "away": 0.058627149969444015,
          "draw": 0.11507545904294131,
          "home": 0.8262973909876147,
          "over25": 0.7008305147904409,
          "under25": 0.2991694852095591
        },
        "market": {
          "away": 0.05493465726317572,
          "draw": 0.11229483041983294,
          "home": 0.8327705123169913,
          "over25": 0.7037861915367484,
          "under25": 0.2962138084632517
        },
        "mimo": {
          "away": 0.0990558626873668,
          "draw": 0.13170735614695026,
          "home": 0.769236781165683,
          "over25": 0.6805018673460288,
          "under25": 0.3194981326539712
        },
        "poisson": {
          "away": 0.12963805,
          "draw": 0.17801824,
          "home": 0.69234371,
          "over25": 0.62586797,
          "under25": 0.37413203
        },
        "qwen": {
          "away": 0.02160132392984232,
          "draw": 0.11229483041983296,
          "home": 0.8661038456503247,
          "over25": 0.7037861915367484,
          "under25": 0.2962138084632516
        }
      },
      "home": "Inter",
      "id": "replay-ce1716cd47270f1d",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-10T16:00:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 17.13,
        "draw": 8.38,
        "home": 1.13,
        "over25": 1.33,
        "under25": 3.16
      },
      "score": null
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  ],
  "id": "daily-2026-10-09-r7",
  "kickoff_window": "Next 24 hours",
  "label": "Daily slate \u00b7 10 October",
  "lock_at": "2026-10-10T16:00:00Z",
  "note": "Tips and stakes were published before the first kickoff and are now sealed for settlement.",
  "policy": {
    "bet_policy": {
      "evidence_status": "required-paper-picks-not-a-positive-value-claim",
      "flat_stake_units": 1.0,
      "longshot_decimal_odds": 5.0,
      "longshot_flat_stake_units": 5.0,
      "market_similarity_is_failure": false,
      "maximum_bets_per_fixture": 1,
      "maximum_bets_per_round": 3,
      "maximum_decimal_odds": 3.0,
      "maximum_longshot_bets": 1,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_fraction": 0.005,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_units": 5.0,
      "maximum_market_probability_gap": 0.15,
      "maximum_round_stake_fraction": 0.05,
      "maximum_round_stake_units": 3.0,
      "maximum_single_stake_fraction": 0.01,
      "maximum_total_open_exposure_fraction": 0.15,
      "minimum_point_ev": -1.0,
      "selection_mode": "required-ranked-paper",
      "stake_assignment": "commissioner-flat-capped",
      "starting_bankroll_units": 1000.0,
      "unsupported_without_evidence_decimal_odds": 8.0
    },
    "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "rubric_sha256": "7ef0538587aff0e3fee1741d26f53b9190b864412103d833aa4abcaf19ae761e",
    "rubric_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "validator_version": "2"
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  "published_at": "2026-10-09T16:05:27.385233Z",
  "snapshot_id": "sha256:ea8c31ae8c320833fe959f56313aa095b2bca3fb0331a5df783d94674a04a7b3",
  "status": "sealed",
  "submission_meta": {
    "claude": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-09T16:05:10.011049Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 1,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1,
            "unsupported-extreme-price": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-09T16:05:19.494018Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "codex": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-09T16:05:10.011049Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 1,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1,
            "unsupported-extreme-price": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-09T16:05:19.503245Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "gemini": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-09T16:05:10.011049Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 1,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1,
            "unsupported-extreme-price": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-09T16:05:21.164564Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "glm-flash": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-09T16:05:10.011049Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 1,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1,
            "unsupported-extreme-price": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-09T16:05:19.494676Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "kimi": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-09T16:05:10.011049Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 1,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1,
            "unsupported-extreme-price": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-09T16:05:19.502872Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "mimo": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-09T16:05:10.011049Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 1,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1,
            "unsupported-extreme-price": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-09T16:05:27.383134Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "qwen": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-09T16:05:10.011049Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 1,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1,
            "unsupported-extreme-price": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-09T16:05:19.484373Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    }
  }
}