{
  "available_bankrolls": {
    "claude": 973.99,
    "codex": 976.88,
    "gemini": 988.5441,
    "glm-flash": 981.86,
    "kimi": 979.98,
    "mimo": 978.73,
    "qwen": 973.7
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  "bets": [
    {
      "bot_id": "claude",
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      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": 0.04052064,
      "odds": 1.96,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.531, model EV=+4.1%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "codex",
      "fixture_id": "replay-f63db5795d8a6304",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.05624349,
      "odds": 2.55,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.370, model EV=-5.6%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "gemini",
      "fixture_id": "replay-f63db5795d8a6304",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": 0.02394219,
      "odds": 1.96,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.522, model EV=+2.4%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "kimi",
      "fixture_id": "replay-f63db5795d8a6304",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.00250048,
      "odds": 1.96,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.509, model EV=-0.3%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "glm-flash",
      "fixture_id": "replay-f63db5795d8a6304",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.05922144,
      "odds": 2.55,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.369, model EV=-5.9%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "mimo",
      "fixture_id": "replay-f63db5795d8a6304",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": 0.01704061,
      "odds": 2.72,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.374, model EV=+1.7%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "qwen",
      "fixture_id": "replay-f63db5795d8a6304",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.03651426,
      "odds": 2.55,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.378, model EV=-3.7%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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  "fingerprint": "sha256:66b72aadc6c93d5b0d6faeb58d030f4d6c10fe23062feee9c7c7a397e2a1910d",
  "fixtures": [
    {
      "away": "Celta",
      "competition": "La Liga",
      "forecasts": {
        "claude": {
          "away": 0.3861387330521089,
          "draw": 0.28566264484493753,
          "home": 0.3281986221029536,
          "over25": 0.5308778789982185,
          "under25": 0.4691221210017815
        },
        "codex": {
          "away": 0.37010059372291604,
          "draw": 0.28434183149247216,
          "home": 0.34555757478461174,
          "over25": 0.4766331301687477,
          "under25": 0.5233668698312524
        },
        "gemini": {
          "away": 0.3772657788678202,
          "draw": 0.27135737807041427,
          "home": 0.35137684306176553,
          "over25": 0.5224194839744019,
          "under25": 0.47758051602559815
        },
        "glm-flash": {
          "away": 0.3689327679755496,
          "draw": 0.28878811501239326,
          "home": 0.34227911701205715,
          "over25": 0.47337042881035735,
          "under25": 0.5266295711896427
        },
        "kimi": {
          "away": 0.38690501437839997,
          "draw": 0.28045216834158215,
          "home": 0.3326428172800179,
          "over25": 0.5089283245620284,
          "under25": 0.4910716754379716
        },
        "market": {
          "away": 0.3673613564111622,
          "draw": 0.2882373719533734,
          "home": 0.34440127163546447,
          "over25": 0.47593582887700536,
          "under25": 0.5240641711229947
        },
        "mimo": {
          "away": 0.3532699047083059,
          "draw": 0.27281810614340385,
          "home": 0.37391198914829027,
          "over25": 0.47898556144069215,
          "under25": 0.5210144385593078
        },
        "poisson": {
          "away": 0.29423483,
          "draw": 0.27940945,
          "home": 0.42635572,
          "over25": 0.40763036,
          "under25": 0.59236964
        },
        "qwen": {
          "away": 0.3778375468873526,
          "draw": 0.2882373719533734,
          "home": 0.333925081159274,
          "over25": 0.47593582887700536,
          "under25": 0.5240641711229946
        }
      },
      "home": "Elche",
      "id": "replay-f63db5795d8a6304",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-11T12:00:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 2.55,
        "draw": 3.25,
        "home": 2.72,
        "over25": 1.96,
        "under25": 1.78
      },
      "score": null
    }
  ],
  "id": "daily-2026-10-10-r2",
  "kickoff_window": "Next 24 hours",
  "label": "Daily slate \u00b7 11 October",
  "lock_at": "2026-10-11T12:00:00Z",
  "note": "Tips and stakes were published before the first kickoff and are now sealed for settlement.",
  "policy": {
    "bet_policy": {
      "evidence_status": "required-paper-picks-not-a-positive-value-claim",
      "flat_stake_units": 1.0,
      "longshot_decimal_odds": 5.0,
      "longshot_flat_stake_units": 5.0,
      "market_similarity_is_failure": false,
      "maximum_bets_per_fixture": 1,
      "maximum_bets_per_round": 3,
      "maximum_decimal_odds": 3.0,
      "maximum_longshot_bets": 1,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_fraction": 0.005,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_units": 5.0,
      "maximum_market_probability_gap": 0.15,
      "maximum_round_stake_fraction": 0.05,
      "maximum_round_stake_units": 3.0,
      "maximum_single_stake_fraction": 0.01,
      "maximum_total_open_exposure_fraction": 0.15,
      "minimum_point_ev": -1.0,
      "selection_mode": "required-ranked-paper",
      "stake_assignment": "commissioner-flat-capped",
      "starting_bankroll_units": 1000.0,
      "unsupported_without_evidence_decimal_odds": 8.0
    },
    "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "rubric_sha256": "7ef0538587aff0e3fee1741d26f53b9190b864412103d833aa4abcaf19ae761e",
    "rubric_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "validator_version": "2"
  },
  "published_at": "2026-10-10T12:05:30.840554Z",
  "snapshot_id": "sha256:1cada1fe283fde32dfed09eeaa53989432743d18d5b99d6e9623b77f4a015399",
  "status": "sealed",
  "submission_meta": {
    "claude": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-10T12:05:10.372403Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 3,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-10T12:05:21.449726Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "codex": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-10T12:05:10.372403Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 3,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-10T12:05:21.451946Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "gemini": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-10T12:05:10.372403Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 3,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-10T12:05:23.513062Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "glm-flash": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-10T12:05:10.372403Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 3,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-10T12:05:21.453835Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "kimi": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-10T12:05:10.372403Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 3,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-10T12:05:21.455468Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "mimo": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-10T12:05:10.372403Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 3,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-10T12:05:30.838304Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "qwen": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-10T12:05:10.372403Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 3,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-10T12:05:21.438332Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    }
  }
}