{
  "available_bankrolls": {
    "claude": 968.99,
    "codex": 971.88,
    "gemini": 983.5441,
    "glm-flash": 976.86,
    "kimi": 974.98,
    "mimo": 973.73,
    "qwen": 968.7
  },
  "bets": [
    {
      "bot_id": "claude",
      "fixture_id": "replay-1a2aa3889c781b24",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.0053966,
      "odds": 1.72,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.578, model EV=-0.5%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "codex",
      "fixture_id": "replay-1a2aa3889c781b24",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.04957026,
      "odds": 1.61,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.590, model EV=-5.0%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "gemini",
      "fixture_id": "replay-1a2aa3889c781b24",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.03972415,
      "odds": 1.72,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.558, model EV=-4.0%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "kimi",
      "fixture_id": "replay-1a2aa3889c781b24",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.03179507,
      "odds": 1.72,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.563, model EV=-3.2%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "glm-flash",
      "fixture_id": "replay-1a2aa3889c781b24",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.05342651,
      "odds": 2.04,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.464, model EV=-5.3%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "mimo",
      "fixture_id": "replay-1a2aa3889c781b24",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.05061208,
      "odds": 2.04,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.465, model EV=-5.1%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "qwen",
      "fixture_id": "replay-1a2aa3889c781b24",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.06680851,
      "odds": 1.72,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.543, model EV=-6.7%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    }
  ],
  "fingerprint": "sha256:cf0659ad98ee13f2a5c616060915bb6beb56840cdc78a868f57a90a0666dbc5b",
  "fixtures": [
    {
      "away": "La Coruna",
      "competition": "La Liga",
      "forecasts": {
        "claude": {
          "away": 0.1744494422133649,
          "draw": 0.23494162600625312,
          "home": 0.590608931780382,
          "over25": 0.578257788678869,
          "under25": 0.421742211321131
        },
        "codex": {
          "away": 0.17460392297432387,
          "draw": 0.23506704420622776,
          "home": 0.5903290328194484,
          "over25": 0.5427155508007168,
          "under25": 0.45728444919928324
        },
        "gemini": {
          "away": 0.25160368063938704,
          "draw": 0.23824567686745896,
          "home": 0.510150642493154,
          "over25": 0.5582999143884476,
          "under25": 0.4417000856115524
        },
        "glm-flash": {
          "away": 0.18444786740384186,
          "draw": 0.24122444621578623,
          "home": 0.5743276863803719,
          "over25": 0.535993387133563,
          "under25": 0.46400661286643696
        },
        "kimi": {
          "away": 0.2050016363877676,
          "draw": 0.2346885734559125,
          "home": 0.5603097901563199,
          "over25": 0.562909841980616,
          "under25": 0.437090158019384
        },
        "market": {
          "away": 0.18036824506341237,
          "draw": 0.23819623203030799,
          "home": 0.5814355229062796,
          "over25": 0.5425531914893618,
          "under25": 0.4574468085106383
        },
        "mimo": {
          "away": 0.204428451629108,
          "draw": 0.23299839911543124,
          "home": 0.5625731492554608,
          "over25": 0.5346137623665282,
          "under25": 0.46538623763347176
        },
        "poisson": {
          "away": 0.30616497,
          "draw": 0.27960506,
          "home": 0.41422997,
          "over25": 0.41090086,
          "under25": 0.58909914
        },
        "qwen": {
          "away": 0.18655872125388856,
          "draw": 0.23819623203030799,
          "home": 0.5752450467158035,
          "over25": 0.5425531914893618,
          "under25": 0.45744680851063824
        }
      },
      "home": "Sociedad",
      "id": "replay-1a2aa3889c781b24",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-11T14:15:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 5.19,
        "draw": 3.93,
        "home": 1.61,
        "over25": 1.72,
        "under25": 2.04
      },
      "score": null
    }
  ],
  "id": "daily-2026-10-10-r5",
  "kickoff_window": "Next 24 hours",
  "label": "Daily slate \u00b7 11 October",
  "lock_at": "2026-10-11T14:15:00Z",
  "note": "Tips and stakes were published before the first kickoff and are now sealed for settlement.",
  "policy": {
    "bet_policy": {
      "evidence_status": "required-paper-picks-not-a-positive-value-claim",
      "flat_stake_units": 1.0,
      "longshot_decimal_odds": 5.0,
      "longshot_flat_stake_units": 5.0,
      "market_similarity_is_failure": false,
      "maximum_bets_per_fixture": 1,
      "maximum_bets_per_round": 3,
      "maximum_decimal_odds": 3.0,
      "maximum_longshot_bets": 1,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_fraction": 0.005,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_units": 5.0,
      "maximum_market_probability_gap": 0.15,
      "maximum_round_stake_fraction": 0.05,
      "maximum_round_stake_units": 3.0,
      "maximum_single_stake_fraction": 0.01,
      "maximum_total_open_exposure_fraction": 0.15,
      "minimum_point_ev": -1.0,
      "selection_mode": "required-ranked-paper",
      "stake_assignment": "commissioner-flat-capped",
      "starting_bankroll_units": 1000.0,
      "unsupported_without_evidence_decimal_odds": 8.0
    },
    "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "rubric_sha256": "7ef0538587aff0e3fee1741d26f53b9190b864412103d833aa4abcaf19ae761e",
    "rubric_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "validator_version": "2"
  },
  "published_at": "2026-10-10T15:05:28.289159Z",
  "snapshot_id": "sha256:cc3966cf905400b16984a0d7f786469a333287033cea75a1015a1bb27d874402",
  "status": "sealed",
  "submission_meta": {
    "claude": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-10T15:05:10.322365Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-10T15:05:20.383579Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "codex": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-10T15:05:10.322365Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-10T15:05:20.381606Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "gemini": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-10T15:05:10.322365Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "bet 0 outside-paper-price-band"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-10T15:05:22.054791Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "glm-flash": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-10T15:05:10.322365Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-10T15:05:20.382221Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "kimi": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-10T15:05:10.322365Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-10T15:05:20.389263Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "mimo": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-10T15:05:10.322365Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-10T15:05:28.287169Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "qwen": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-10T15:05:10.322365Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-10T15:05:20.378686Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    }
  }
}