{
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      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
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      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.369, model EV=-6.2%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
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      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.607, model EV=-1.0%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
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      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.441, model EV=-2.2%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
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      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.578, model EV=-5.8%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
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      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.434, model EV=-4.9%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
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      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
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      "stake": 1.0
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      "odds": 2.56,
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      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.368, model EV=-5.9%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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      "market": "OU25",
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      "odds": 2.19,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.445, model EV=-2.6%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "mimo",
      "fixture_id": "replay-0cd4175d6d8feeec",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.04069968,
      "odds": 2.54,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.378, model EV=-4.1%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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      "bot_id": "qwen",
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      "odds": 2.56,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.384, model EV=-1.6%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "qwen",
      "fixture_id": "replay-fc7698b1bcd46cc9",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.03052523,
      "odds": 1.57,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.617, model EV=-3.1%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
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          "away": 0.3709718628826012,
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          "home": 0.3776772899229635,
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      "home": "Como",
      "id": "replay-0cd4175d6d8feeec",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-11T10:30:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 2.56,
        "draw": 3.54,
        "home": 2.54,
        "over25": 1.61,
        "under25": 2.22
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    },
    {
      "away": "Portsmouth",
      "competition": "Championship",
      "forecasts": {
        "claude": {
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          "away": 0.17955017731246667,
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        "market": {
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          "home": 0.5951189003474298,
          "over25": 0.5732984293193717,
          "under25": 0.4267015706806283
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        "mimo": {
          "away": 0.21308779846638928,
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        "poisson": {
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      },
      "home": "Southampton",
      "id": "replay-fc7698b1bcd46cc9",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-11T11:00:00Z",
      "odds": {
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  "id": "daily-2026-10-10",
  "kickoff_window": "Next 24 hours",
  "label": "Daily slate \u00b7 11 October",
  "lock_at": "2026-10-11T10:30:00Z",
  "note": "Tips and stakes were published before the first kickoff and are now sealed for settlement.",
  "policy": {
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      "flat_stake_units": 1.0,
      "longshot_decimal_odds": 5.0,
      "longshot_flat_stake_units": 5.0,
      "market_similarity_is_failure": false,
      "maximum_bets_per_fixture": 1,
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      "maximum_decimal_odds": 3.0,
      "maximum_longshot_bets": 1,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_fraction": 0.005,
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    "rubric_sha256": "7ef0538587aff0e3fee1741d26f53b9190b864412103d833aa4abcaf19ae761e",
    "rubric_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
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  "snapshot_id": "sha256:2f20a5963f84132767960b9f89fa1fab58b37ca97bb21b5317769e2ff30e1053",
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          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
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          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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        "commissioner_fallback": {
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          "status": "accepted",
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      "generated_at": "2026-10-10T11:05:19.943835Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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    "codex": {
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          "validation_errors": [
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
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        "commissioner_fallback": {
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      "generated_at": "2026-10-10T11:05:19.932197Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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    "gemini": {
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          "validation_errors": [
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      "generated_at": "2026-10-10T11:05:21.624208Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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    "glm-flash": {
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      "execution_provenance": {
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          "validation_errors": [
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      "generated_at": "2026-10-10T11:05:19.943801Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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    "kimi": {
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          "validation_errors": [
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      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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    "mimo": {
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        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-10T11:05:27.905558Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "qwen": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-10T11:05:10.305161Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 5,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 3
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 2,
          "official_stake": 2.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 10,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-10T11:05:19.923761Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    }
  }
}