{
  "available_bankrolls": {
    "claude": 959.99,
    "codex": 962.88,
    "gemini": 974.5441,
    "glm-flash": 967.86,
    "kimi": 965.98,
    "mimo": 964.73,
    "qwen": 959.7
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  "bets": [
    {
      "bot_id": "claude",
      "fixture_id": "replay-7e8fd8c15e725b50",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.00670142,
      "odds": 1.55,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.641, model EV=-0.7%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "codex",
      "fixture_id": "replay-7e8fd8c15e725b50",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.05470841,
      "odds": 1.55,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.610, model EV=-5.5%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "gemini",
      "fixture_id": "replay-7e8fd8c15e725b50",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": 0.00903939,
      "odds": 2.38,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.424, model EV=+0.9%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "kimi",
      "fixture_id": "replay-7e8fd8c15e725b50",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.05326961,
      "odds": 2.38,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.398, model EV=-5.3%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "glm-flash",
      "fixture_id": "replay-7e8fd8c15e725b50",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.04572231,
      "odds": 2.38,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.401, model EV=-4.6%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "mimo",
      "fixture_id": "replay-7e8fd8c15e725b50",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.03131414,
      "odds": 2.38,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.407, model EV=-3.1%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "qwen",
      "fixture_id": "replay-7e8fd8c15e725b50",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.05118874,
      "odds": 1.55,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.612, model EV=-5.1%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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  "fingerprint": "sha256:54f2b0ac41a4155cf8481da703eaae7333043ea56f5a4c0d2d6238af381a2bde",
  "fixtures": [
    {
      "away": "Venezia",
      "competition": "Serie A",
      "forecasts": {
        "claude": {
          "away": 0.1479057155850335,
          "draw": 0.21125649234789182,
          "home": 0.6408377920670747,
          "over25": 0.6237082811591854,
          "under25": 0.3762917188408146
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        "codex": {
          "away": 0.1679333757378,
          "draw": 0.22220108476097697,
          "home": 0.609865539501223,
          "over25": 0.6067904330788588,
          "under25": 0.3932095669211412
        },
        "gemini": {
          "away": 0.2040122153642288,
          "draw": 0.23308053687665325,
          "home": 0.5629072477591179,
          "over25": 0.5760338695426217,
          "under25": 0.4239661304573783
        },
        "glm-flash": {
          "away": 0.17240441393770445,
          "draw": 0.22818013788841507,
          "home": 0.5994154481738805,
          "over25": 0.5990429878987996,
          "under25": 0.4009570121012004
        },
        "kimi": {
          "away": 0.17847959016607365,
          "draw": 0.22558914342293887,
          "home": 0.5959312664109875,
          "over25": 0.6022141235804457,
          "under25": 0.3977858764195543
        },
        "market": {
          "away": 0.17001411754826998,
          "draw": 0.22451625092498811,
          "home": 0.605469631526742,
          "over25": 0.6071428571428571,
          "under25": 0.39285714285714285
        },
        "mimo": {
          "away": 0.20134915703362108,
          "draw": 0.22149871428205595,
          "home": 0.577152128684323,
          "over25": 0.5929891341343063,
          "under25": 0.4070108658656937
        },
        "poisson": {
          "away": 0.25545331,
          "draw": 0.23686707,
          "home": 0.50767962,
          "over25": 0.5532605,
          "under25": 0.4467395
        },
        "qwen": {
          "away": 0.1633474508816033,
          "draw": 0.22451625092498806,
          "home": 0.6121362981934086,
          "over25": 0.6071428571428571,
          "under25": 0.3928571428571429
        }
      },
      "home": "Atalanta",
      "id": "replay-7e8fd8c15e725b50",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-12T16:30:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 5.52,
        "draw": 4.18,
        "home": 1.55,
        "over25": 1.54,
        "under25": 2.38
      },
      "score": null
    }
  ],
  "id": "daily-2026-10-11",
  "kickoff_window": "Next 24 hours",
  "label": "Daily slate \u00b7 12 October",
  "lock_at": "2026-10-12T16:30:00Z",
  "note": "Tips and stakes were published before the first kickoff and are now sealed for settlement.",
  "policy": {
    "bet_policy": {
      "evidence_status": "required-paper-picks-not-a-positive-value-claim",
      "flat_stake_units": 1.0,
      "longshot_decimal_odds": 5.0,
      "longshot_flat_stake_units": 5.0,
      "market_similarity_is_failure": false,
      "maximum_bets_per_fixture": 1,
      "maximum_bets_per_round": 3,
      "maximum_decimal_odds": 3.0,
      "maximum_longshot_bets": 1,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_fraction": 0.005,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_units": 5.0,
      "maximum_market_probability_gap": 0.15,
      "maximum_round_stake_fraction": 0.05,
      "maximum_round_stake_units": 3.0,
      "maximum_single_stake_fraction": 0.01,
      "maximum_total_open_exposure_fraction": 0.15,
      "minimum_point_ev": -1.0,
      "selection_mode": "required-ranked-paper",
      "stake_assignment": "commissioner-flat-capped",
      "starting_bankroll_units": 1000.0,
      "unsupported_without_evidence_decimal_odds": 8.0
    },
    "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "rubric_sha256": "7ef0538587aff0e3fee1741d26f53b9190b864412103d833aa4abcaf19ae761e",
    "rubric_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "validator_version": "2"
  },
  "published_at": "2026-10-11T17:05:40.957848Z",
  "snapshot_id": "sha256:2370ca31f9c9c4625136cf3ff0d38aefc9ac0b0aab1bb8d8a679e1e6f3a563da",
  "status": "sealed",
  "submission_meta": {
    "claude": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-11T17:05:10.556781Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-11T17:05:32.978197Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "codex": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-11T17:05:10.556781Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-11T17:05:32.978162Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "gemini": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-11T17:05:10.556781Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "bet 0 outside-paper-price-band"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-11T17:05:34.663927Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "glm-flash": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-11T17:05:10.556781Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-11T17:05:32.976757Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "kimi": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-11T17:05:10.556781Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-11T17:05:32.977473Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "mimo": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-11T17:05:10.556781Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-11T17:05:40.955689Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "qwen": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-11T17:05:10.556781Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-11T17:05:32.962539Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    }
  }
}