{
  "available_bankrolls": {
    "claude": 993.24,
    "codex": 987.5,
    "gemini": 1007.2541,
    "glm-flash": 980.75,
    "kimi": 993.11,
    "mimo": 983.44,
    "qwen": 993.13
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  "bets": [
    {
      "bot_id": "claude",
      "fixture_id": "replay-783ee5e3d4b3989d",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": 0.06289247,
      "odds": 2.89,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.368, model EV=+6.3%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "codex",
      "fixture_id": "replay-783ee5e3d4b3989d",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.06753875,
      "odds": 1.73,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.539, model EV=-6.8%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "gemini",
      "fixture_id": "replay-783ee5e3d4b3989d",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.05186596,
      "odds": 2.02,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.469, model EV=-5.2%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "kimi",
      "fixture_id": "replay-783ee5e3d4b3989d",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.00094632,
      "odds": 2.89,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.346, model EV=-0.1%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "glm-flash",
      "fixture_id": "replay-783ee5e3d4b3989d",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.0573154,
      "odds": 2.02,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.467, model EV=-5.7%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "mimo",
      "fixture_id": "replay-783ee5e3d4b3989d",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.05591986,
      "odds": 2.89,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.327, model EV=-5.6%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "qwen",
      "fixture_id": "replay-783ee5e3d4b3989d",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": 0.02351645,
      "odds": 2.89,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.354, model EV=+2.4%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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  "fingerprint": "sha256:8c0663dd6672baf80d42d00d88d851e926a3ed26f7cc44035b4c3a59b644489b",
  "fixtures": [
    {
      "away": "Oxford",
      "competition": "League One",
      "forecasts": {
        "claude": {
          "away": 0.3677828612265371,
          "draw": 0.2591905913861425,
          "home": 0.37302654738732044,
          "over25": 0.5866117838462033,
          "under25": 0.41338821615379673
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        "codex": {
          "away": 0.31745951013823337,
          "draw": 0.26572609849616324,
          "home": 0.4168143913656034,
          "over25": 0.5389949440136752,
          "under25": 0.4610050559863248
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        "gemini": {
          "away": 0.3224333652297049,
          "draw": 0.2602236911506385,
          "home": 0.4173429436196566,
          "over25": 0.5306267116037781,
          "under25": 0.46937328839622194
        },
        "glm-flash": {
          "away": 0.32364008025300706,
          "draw": 0.26377210777763815,
          "home": 0.4125878119693548,
          "over25": 0.5333244534105175,
          "under25": 0.4666755465894825
        },
        "kimi": {
          "away": 0.34569331504155065,
          "draw": 0.2547791813295247,
          "home": 0.39952750362892464,
          "over25": 0.552466250707659,
          "under25": 0.447533749292341
        },
        "market": {
          "away": 0.3213007997720751,
          "draw": 0.26230489020940595,
          "home": 0.4163943100185189,
          "over25": 0.5386666666666667,
          "under25": 0.4613333333333334
        },
        "mimo": {
          "away": 0.3266713286184231,
          "draw": 0.25117364558022703,
          "home": 0.4221550258013499,
          "over25": 0.5405629913786906,
          "under25": 0.45943700862130943
        },
        "poisson": {
          "away": 0.336665,
          "draw": 0.24905762,
          "home": 0.41427737,
          "over25": 0.54303753,
          "under25": 0.45696247
        },
        "qwen": {
          "away": 0.3541579426292179,
          "draw": 0.262304890209406,
          "home": 0.3835371671613761,
          "over25": 0.5386666666666667,
          "under25": 0.46133333333333326
        }
      },
      "home": "Mansfield",
      "id": "replay-783ee5e3d4b3989d",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-15T19:00:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 2.89,
        "draw": 3.54,
        "home": 2.23,
        "over25": 1.73,
        "under25": 2.02
      },
      "score": null
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  ],
  "id": "daily-2026-10-14",
  "kickoff_window": "Next 24 hours",
  "label": "Daily slate \u00b7 15 October",
  "lock_at": "2026-10-15T19:00:00Z",
  "note": "Tips and stakes were published before the first kickoff and are now sealed for settlement.",
  "policy": {
    "bet_policy": {
      "evidence_status": "required-paper-picks-not-a-positive-value-claim",
      "flat_stake_units": 1.0,
      "longshot_decimal_odds": 5.0,
      "longshot_flat_stake_units": 5.0,
      "market_similarity_is_failure": false,
      "maximum_bets_per_fixture": 1,
      "maximum_bets_per_round": 3,
      "maximum_decimal_odds": 3.0,
      "maximum_longshot_bets": 1,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_fraction": 0.005,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_units": 5.0,
      "maximum_market_probability_gap": 0.15,
      "maximum_round_stake_fraction": 0.05,
      "maximum_round_stake_units": 3.0,
      "maximum_single_stake_fraction": 0.01,
      "maximum_total_open_exposure_fraction": 0.15,
      "minimum_point_ev": -1.0,
      "selection_mode": "required-ranked-paper",
      "stake_assignment": "commissioner-flat-capped",
      "starting_bankroll_units": 1000.0,
      "unsupported_without_evidence_decimal_odds": 8.0
    },
    "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "rubric_sha256": "7ef0538587aff0e3fee1741d26f53b9190b864412103d833aa4abcaf19ae761e",
    "rubric_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "validator_version": "2"
  },
  "published_at": "2026-10-14T19:05:26.086879Z",
  "snapshot_id": "sha256:815daacff132eb51cefcce2302eefa1e501e34ccf17d56ff8ba6a8efd9aa8171",
  "status": "sealed",
  "submission_meta": {
    "claude": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-14T19:05:08.986639Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 3,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-14T19:05:17.725945Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "codex": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-14T19:05:08.986639Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 3,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-14T19:05:17.740013Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "gemini": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-14T19:05:08.986639Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 3,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-14T19:05:19.569880Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "glm-flash": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-14T19:05:08.986639Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 3,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-14T19:05:17.741598Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "kimi": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-14T19:05:08.986639Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 3,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-14T19:05:17.741742Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "mimo": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-14T19:05:08.986639Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 3,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-14T19:05:26.084461Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "qwen": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-14T19:05:08.986639Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "valid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": true,
          "validation_status": "live"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 3,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-14T19:05:17.724174Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    }
  }
}