{
  "available_bankrolls": {
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    "codex": 984.45,
    "gemini": 1008.4441,
    "glm-flash": 978.31,
    "kimi": 990.44,
    "mimo": 978.98,
    "qwen": 992.17
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  "bets": [
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      "bot_id": "claude",
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      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": 0.09565872,
      "odds": 1.68,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.652, model EV=+9.6%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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      "bot_id": "codex",
      "fixture_id": "replay-5833145fc8def4e4",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.04249369,
      "odds": 1.68,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.570, model EV=-4.2%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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      "bot_id": "gemini",
      "fixture_id": "replay-5833145fc8def4e4",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.04745401,
      "odds": 2.12,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.449, model EV=-4.7%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "kimi",
      "fixture_id": "replay-5833145fc8def4e4",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.02099524,
      "odds": 1.67,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.586, model EV=-2.1%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "glm-flash",
      "fixture_id": "replay-5833145fc8def4e4",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.04852953,
      "odds": 2.12,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.449, model EV=-4.9%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "mimo",
      "fixture_id": "replay-5833145fc8def4e4",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.0585794,
      "odds": 1.67,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.564, model EV=-5.9%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "qwen",
      "fixture_id": "replay-5833145fc8def4e4",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.01124351,
      "odds": 1.68,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.589, model EV=-1.1%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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  "fingerprint": "sha256:b11cba785467b3af6e389850bf5aee7e5e80a37694af24ce8cd2d0b4abf3b87d",
  "fixtures": [
    {
      "away": "Napoli",
      "competition": "Serie A",
      "forecasts": {
        "claude": {
          "away": 0.6521778073895439,
          "draw": 0.20411815618551454,
          "home": 0.14370403642494156,
          "over25": 0.5947392679983609,
          "under25": 0.40526073200163915
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          "away": 0.5699442337538375,
          "draw": 0.23813831958296283,
          "home": 0.19191744666319968,
          "over25": 0.5594498733772741,
          "under25": 0.44055012662272586
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        "gemini": {
          "away": 0.5045307765872251,
          "draw": 0.2410401229700624,
          "home": 0.2544291004427125,
          "over25": 0.5506858555381575,
          "under25": 0.4493141444618425
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        "glm-flash": {
          "away": 0.5638235137033234,
          "draw": 0.23765985082849267,
          "home": 0.1985166354681839,
          "over25": 0.5511931748009056,
          "under25": 0.44880682519909443
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        "kimi": {
          "away": 0.579883864649486,
          "draw": 0.22697473755510292,
          "home": 0.19314139779541106,
          "over25": 0.5862303979526347,
          "under25": 0.41376960204736535
        },
        "market": {
          "away": 0.5618788651731357,
          "draw": 0.235989123372717,
          "home": 0.20213201145414733,
          "over25": 0.5593667546174144,
          "under25": 0.44063324538258575
        },
        "mimo": {
          "away": 0.5247912264821062,
          "draw": 0.23042492718674515,
          "home": 0.2447838463311487,
          "over25": 0.563724909642394,
          "under25": 0.43627509035760603
        },
        "poisson": {
          "away": 0.56192165,
          "draw": 0.23086505,
          "home": 0.2072133,
          "over25": 0.52837098,
          "under25": 0.47162902
        },
        "qwen": {
          "away": 0.5885455318398023,
          "draw": 0.235989123372717,
          "home": 0.17546534478748066,
          "over25": 0.5593667546174144,
          "under25": 0.44063324538258564
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      },
      "home": "Venezia",
      "id": "replay-5833145fc8def4e4",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:00:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 1.68,
        "draw": 4.0,
        "home": 4.67,
        "over25": 1.67,
        "under25": 2.12
      },
      "score": null
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  ],
  "id": "daily-2026-10-16-r3",
  "kickoff_window": "Next 24 hours",
  "label": "Daily slate \u00b7 17 October",
  "lock_at": "2026-10-17T13:00:00Z",
  "note": "Tips and stakes were published before the first kickoff and are now sealed for settlement.",
  "policy": {
    "bet_policy": {
      "evidence_status": "required-paper-picks-not-a-positive-value-claim",
      "flat_stake_units": 1.0,
      "longshot_decimal_odds": 5.0,
      "longshot_flat_stake_units": 5.0,
      "market_similarity_is_failure": false,
      "maximum_bets_per_fixture": 1,
      "maximum_bets_per_round": 3,
      "maximum_decimal_odds": 3.0,
      "maximum_longshot_bets": 1,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_fraction": 0.005,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_units": 5.0,
      "maximum_market_probability_gap": 0.15,
      "maximum_round_stake_fraction": 0.05,
      "maximum_round_stake_units": 3.0,
      "maximum_single_stake_fraction": 0.01,
      "maximum_total_open_exposure_fraction": 0.15,
      "minimum_point_ev": -1.0,
      "selection_mode": "required-ranked-paper",
      "stake_assignment": "commissioner-flat-capped",
      "starting_bankroll_units": 1000.0,
      "unsupported_without_evidence_decimal_odds": 8.0
    },
    "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "rubric_sha256": "7ef0538587aff0e3fee1741d26f53b9190b864412103d833aa4abcaf19ae761e",
    "rubric_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "validator_version": "2"
  },
  "published_at": "2026-10-16T13:05:29.632563Z",
  "snapshot_id": "sha256:9fded021c253b17ef3f65a7fb1f2d3a80a3c336bd063b7aa857444cb8366ea6c",
  "status": "sealed",
  "submission_meta": {
    "claude": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-16T13:05:10.040046Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-16T13:05:21.483386Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "codex": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-16T13:05:10.040046Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-16T13:05:21.486708Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "gemini": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-16T13:05:10.040046Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "bet 0 outside-paper-price-band"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-16T13:05:23.242371Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "glm-flash": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-16T13:05:10.040046Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-16T13:05:21.484154Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "kimi": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-16T13:05:10.040046Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-16T13:05:21.486121Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "mimo": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-16T13:05:10.040046Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-16T13:05:29.630033Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "qwen": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-16T13:05:10.040046Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-16T13:05:21.468154Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    }
  }
}