{
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      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.761, model EV=+0.5%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
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      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.594, model EV=-5.5%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
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      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.708, model EV=-6.5%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
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      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.595, model EV=-5.3%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.707, model EV=-6.6%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
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      "selection": "OVER25",
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      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
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      "bot_id": "kimi",
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      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.725, model EV=-4.3%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
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      "stake": 1.0
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      "odds": 2.22,
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      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.427, model EV=-5.2%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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      "bot_id": "glm-flash",
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      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.07243364,
      "odds": 1.32,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.703, model EV=-7.2%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.05960664,
      "odds": 1.62,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.580, model EV=-6.0%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "mimo",
      "fixture_id": "replay-751266e5c2f98bab",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.08515215,
      "odds": 1.32,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.693, model EV=-8.5%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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      "market": "1X2",
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      "odds": 1.59,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.630, model EV=+0.1%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "qwen",
      "fixture_id": "replay-751266e5c2f98bab",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.04508781,
      "odds": 1.38,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.692, model EV=-4.5%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
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          "home": 0.14706828601302982,
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          "under25": 0.2913907284768212
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          "away": 0.614441570289948,
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          "home": 0.2027144525982382,
          "over25": 0.6930665528468134,
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          "home": 0.15965747,
          "over25": 0.62740508,
          "under25": 0.37259492
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          "home": 0.1318301907749346,
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          "under25": 0.29139072847682124
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      },
      "home": "Strasbourg",
      "id": "replay-751266e5c2f98bab",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-17T15:15:00Z",
      "odds": {
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        "draw": 5.3,
        "home": 6.35,
        "over25": 1.32,
        "under25": 3.21
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      "score": null
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    {
      "away": "Inter",
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      "forecasts": {
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          "away": 0.6852076304687592,
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        "market": {
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          "home": 0.17686659012249822,
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        "mimo": {
          "away": 0.5569928938385753,
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          "home": 0.2161527376151983,
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          "under25": 0.41951027175990974
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        "poisson": {
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          "over25": 0.53000419,
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      },
      "home": "Bologna",
      "id": "replay-6a1e3ca2645816bc",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-17T16:00:00Z",
      "odds": {
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  "id": "daily-2026-10-16-r6",
  "kickoff_window": "Next 24 hours",
  "label": "Daily slate \u00b7 17 October",
  "lock_at": "2026-10-17T15:15:00Z",
  "note": "Tips and stakes were published before the first kickoff and are now sealed for settlement.",
  "policy": {
    "bet_policy": {
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      "flat_stake_units": 1.0,
      "longshot_decimal_odds": 5.0,
      "longshot_flat_stake_units": 5.0,
      "market_similarity_is_failure": false,
      "maximum_bets_per_fixture": 1,
      "maximum_bets_per_round": 3,
      "maximum_decimal_odds": 3.0,
      "maximum_longshot_bets": 1,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_fraction": 0.005,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_units": 5.0,
      "maximum_market_probability_gap": 0.15,
      "maximum_round_stake_fraction": 0.05,
      "maximum_round_stake_units": 3.0,
      "maximum_single_stake_fraction": 0.01,
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      "selection_mode": "required-ranked-paper",
      "stake_assignment": "commissioner-flat-capped",
      "starting_bankroll_units": 1000.0,
      "unsupported_without_evidence_decimal_odds": 8.0
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    "rubric_sha256": "7ef0538587aff0e3fee1741d26f53b9190b864412103d833aa4abcaf19ae761e",
    "rubric_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
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  "snapshot_id": "sha256:d7c1a2975bc9f7b020271d0728315e4558a7f28e1571c42276361abc27abd4d5",
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        "adapter": {
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          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
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          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
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          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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        "commissioner_fallback": {
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          "status": "accepted",
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      "generated_at": "2026-10-16T16:14:45.014734Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "codex": {
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      "execution_provenance": {
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          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
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        "commissioner_fallback": {
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      "generated_at": "2026-10-16T16:14:45.009681Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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    "gemini": {
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          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "glm-flash": {
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      "execution_provenance": {
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        "adapter": {
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          "validation_errors": [
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      "generated_at": "2026-10-16T16:14:45.015518Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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    "kimi": {
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      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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    "mimo": {
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        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-16T16:14:53.405515Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "qwen": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-16T16:14:31.909136Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 3,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 5
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 2,
          "official_stake": 2.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 10,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-16T16:14:45.003785Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    }
  }
}