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          "over25": 0.5670929049654544,
          "under25": 0.4329070950345456
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        "codex": {
          "away": 0.2681995241190983,
          "draw": 0.26895455017134706,
          "home": 0.46284592570955463,
          "over25": 0.5007342774963346,
          "under25": 0.4992657225036654
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        "gemini": {
          "away": 0.24583244517634362,
          "draw": 0.2527408837775559,
          "home": 0.5014266710461005,
          "over25": 0.5356879236528748,
          "under25": 0.46431207634712524
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        "glm-flash": {
          "away": 0.2680234309669687,
          "draw": 0.27534917434403283,
          "home": 0.45662739468899854,
          "over25": 0.49302679653324005,
          "under25": 0.50697320346676
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        "kimi": {
          "away": 0.27628476015233483,
          "draw": 0.268558176263233,
          "home": 0.45515706358443225,
          "over25": 0.5357646165603973,
          "under25": 0.4642353834396027
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        "market": {
          "away": 0.2689376216852559,
          "draw": 0.27282400350151687,
          "home": 0.4582383748132273,
          "over25": 0.5,
          "under25": 0.5
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        "mimo": {
          "away": 0.27942526064374157,
          "draw": 0.26115415668446235,
          "home": 0.45942058267179603,
          "over25": 0.49751128451453713,
          "under25": 0.5024887154854629
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        "poisson": {
          "away": 0.30504254,
          "draw": 0.27780276,
          "home": 0.4171547,
          "over25": 0.41697919,
          "under25": 0.58302081
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        "qwen": {
          "away": 0.25846143120906534,
          "draw": 0.27282400350151687,
          "home": 0.4687145652894178,
          "over25": 0.5,
          "under25": 0.5
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      },
      "home": "La Coruna",
      "id": "replay-0428118a23c1d3a4",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-16T19:00:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 3.51,
        "draw": 3.46,
        "home": 2.06,
        "over25": 1.87,
        "under25": 1.87
      },
      "score": null
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  ],
  "id": "daily-2026-10-16",
  "kickoff_window": "Next 24 hours",
  "label": "Daily slate \u00b7 16 October",
  "lock_at": "2026-10-16T18:30:00Z",
  "note": "Tips and stakes were published before the first kickoff and are now sealed for settlement.",
  "policy": {
    "bet_policy": {
      "evidence_status": "required-paper-picks-not-a-positive-value-claim",
      "flat_stake_units": 1.0,
      "longshot_decimal_odds": 5.0,
      "longshot_flat_stake_units": 5.0,
      "market_similarity_is_failure": false,
      "maximum_bets_per_fixture": 1,
      "maximum_bets_per_round": 3,
      "maximum_decimal_odds": 3.0,
      "maximum_longshot_bets": 1,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_fraction": 0.005,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_units": 5.0,
      "maximum_market_probability_gap": 0.15,
      "maximum_round_stake_fraction": 0.05,
      "maximum_round_stake_units": 3.0,
      "maximum_single_stake_fraction": 0.01,
      "maximum_total_open_exposure_fraction": 0.15,
      "minimum_point_ev": -1.0,
      "selection_mode": "required-ranked-paper",
      "stake_assignment": "commissioner-flat-capped",
      "starting_bankroll_units": 1000.0,
      "unsupported_without_evidence_decimal_odds": 8.0
    },
    "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "rubric_sha256": "7ef0538587aff0e3fee1741d26f53b9190b864412103d833aa4abcaf19ae761e",
    "rubric_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "validator_version": "2"
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  "published_at": "2026-10-16T09:05:36.785579Z",
  "snapshot_id": "sha256:90340a97fd09af8acafbb8f133a933904ba9bbbd86dfa7d96bba3243ecc3a6ce",
  "status": "sealed",
  "submission_meta": {
    "claude": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-16T09:05:09.482470Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 9,
            "round-bet-count-cap": 13
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 25,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
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      "generated_at": "2026-10-16T09:05:26.586801Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "codex": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-16T09:05:09.482470Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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          "validation_status": "failed"
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 9,
            "round-bet-count-cap": 13
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 25,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
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          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
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      "generated_at": "2026-10-16T09:05:26.597108Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "gemini": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-16T09:05:09.482470Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
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          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "bet 0 outside-paper-price-band"
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          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
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            "round-bet-count-cap": 13
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 25,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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        "commissioner_fallback": {
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          "status": "accepted",
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      "generated_at": "2026-10-16T09:05:29.036547Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "glm-flash": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-16T09:05:09.482470Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
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            "round-bet-count-cap": 13
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 25,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
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      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-16T09:05:26.591439Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "kimi": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-16T09:05:09.482470Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 9,
            "round-bet-count-cap": 13
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 25,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
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      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-16T09:05:26.587021Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "mimo": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-16T09:05:09.482470Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 9,
            "round-bet-count-cap": 13
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 25,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
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      "generated_at": "2026-10-16T09:05:36.782338Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "qwen": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-16T09:05:09.482470Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 9,
            "round-bet-count-cap": 13
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 25,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
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      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-16T09:05:26.594004Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    }
  }
}