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          "under25": 0.39763680752106767
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        "codex": {
          "away": 0.4605683091964548,
          "draw": 0.26126751363603423,
          "home": 0.278164177167511,
          "over25": 0.5732434184904787,
          "under25": 0.42675658150952134
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        "gemini": {
          "away": 0.4715338762071526,
          "draw": 0.2534370120355881,
          "home": 0.2750291117572593,
          "over25": 0.5628446720745093,
          "under25": 0.4371553279254907
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        "glm-flash": {
          "away": 0.45680701440084176,
          "draw": 0.26108937328140863,
          "home": 0.28210361231774966,
          "over25": 0.5664300482611344,
          "under25": 0.4335699517388656
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        "kimi": {
          "away": 0.472955906737844,
          "draw": 0.2522774185798899,
          "home": 0.2747666746822661,
          "over25": 0.5909736641690838,
          "under25": 0.4090263358309162
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        "market": {
          "away": 0.4548171251661276,
          "draw": 0.2595355340283166,
          "home": 0.28564734080555576,
          "over25": 0.5732984293193717,
          "under25": 0.4267015706806283
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        "mimo": {
          "away": 0.4222059023974858,
          "draw": 0.2489073627207139,
          "home": 0.32888673488180026,
          "over25": 0.5656425915679062,
          "under25": 0.4343574084320938
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        "poisson": {
          "away": 0.33974603,
          "draw": 0.26091491,
          "home": 0.39933906,
          "over25": 0.49168072,
          "under25": 0.50831928
        },
        "qwen": {
          "away": 0.47910283945184184,
          "draw": 0.25953553402831664,
          "home": 0.2613616265198415,
          "over25": 0.5732984293193717,
          "under25": 0.4267015706806283
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      },
      "home": "Fiorentina",
      "id": "replay-e31c05cf2103876d",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T13:00:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 2.06,
        "draw": 3.61,
        "home": 3.28,
        "over25": 1.63,
        "under25": 2.19
      },
      "score": null
    }
  ],
  "id": "daily-2026-10-17-r3",
  "kickoff_window": "Next 24 hours",
  "label": "Daily slate \u00b7 18 October",
  "lock_at": "2026-10-18T13:00:00Z",
  "note": "Tips and stakes were published before the first kickoff and are now sealed for settlement.",
  "policy": {
    "bet_policy": {
      "evidence_status": "required-paper-picks-not-a-positive-value-claim",
      "flat_stake_units": 1.0,
      "longshot_decimal_odds": 5.0,
      "longshot_flat_stake_units": 5.0,
      "market_similarity_is_failure": false,
      "maximum_bets_per_fixture": 1,
      "maximum_bets_per_round": 3,
      "maximum_decimal_odds": 3.0,
      "maximum_longshot_bets": 1,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_fraction": 0.005,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_units": 5.0,
      "maximum_market_probability_gap": 0.15,
      "maximum_round_stake_fraction": 0.05,
      "maximum_round_stake_units": 3.0,
      "maximum_single_stake_fraction": 0.01,
      "maximum_total_open_exposure_fraction": 0.15,
      "minimum_point_ev": -1.0,
      "selection_mode": "required-ranked-paper",
      "stake_assignment": "commissioner-flat-capped",
      "starting_bankroll_units": 1000.0,
      "unsupported_without_evidence_decimal_odds": 8.0
    },
    "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "rubric_sha256": "7ef0538587aff0e3fee1741d26f53b9190b864412103d833aa4abcaf19ae761e",
    "rubric_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "validator_version": "2"
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  "published_at": "2026-10-17T13:05:27.749199Z",
  "snapshot_id": "sha256:33d9f24806699453b778cbbff22d41537a7a69c3db5288821421fc2da8a4523f",
  "status": "sealed",
  "submission_meta": {
    "claude": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-17T13:05:06.462513Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 1,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 9,
            "round-bet-count-cap": 12
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 25,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
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      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-17T13:05:19.532788Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "codex": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-17T13:05:06.462513Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
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          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 9,
            "round-bet-count-cap": 13
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 25,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
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      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-17T13:05:19.531712Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "gemini": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-17T13:05:06.462513Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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          "validation_status": "failed"
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
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            "round-bet-count-cap": 13
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 25,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
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      "generated_at": "2026-10-17T13:05:21.294145Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "glm-flash": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-17T13:05:06.462513Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
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            "round-bet-count-cap": 13
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 25,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
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      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-17T13:05:19.534061Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "kimi": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-17T13:05:06.462513Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 1,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 9,
            "round-bet-count-cap": 12
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 25,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
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      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-17T13:05:19.534854Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "mimo": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-17T13:05:06.462513Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 9,
            "round-bet-count-cap": 13
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 25,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
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      "generated_at": "2026-10-17T13:05:27.746090Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "qwen": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-17T13:05:06.462513Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 9,
            "round-bet-count-cap": 13
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 25,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
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      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-17T13:05:19.522061Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    }
  }
}