{
  "available_bankrolls": {
    "claude": 974.91,
    "codex": 971.66,
    "gemini": 996.0541,
    "glm-flash": 965.47,
    "kimi": 973.08,
    "mimo": 964.31,
    "qwen": 977.18
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  "bets": [
    {
      "bot_id": "claude",
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      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.0160318,
      "odds": 1.63,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.604, model EV=-1.6%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "codex",
      "fixture_id": "replay-a04e523db6b7cafc",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.04761842,
      "odds": 2.1,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.454, model EV=-4.8%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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      "bot_id": "gemini",
      "fixture_id": "replay-a04e523db6b7cafc",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.02808145,
      "odds": 2.18,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.446, model EV=-2.8%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "kimi",
      "fixture_id": "replay-a04e523db6b7cafc",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.03952955,
      "odds": 1.63,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.589, model EV=-4.0%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "glm-flash",
      "fixture_id": "replay-a04e523db6b7cafc",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.06287164,
      "odds": 1.63,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.575, model EV=-6.3%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "mimo",
      "fixture_id": "replay-a04e523db6b7cafc",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.03934536,
      "odds": 2.1,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.457, model EV=-3.9%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "qwen",
      "fixture_id": "replay-a04e523db6b7cafc",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.06734908,
      "odds": 2.18,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.428, model EV=-6.7%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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  "fingerprint": "sha256:fb0ac7f410d7331e0ec4419eedc25558df938367d5f1631b01822366cdfdb881",
  "fixtures": [
    {
      "away": "Alaves",
      "competition": "La Liga",
      "forecasts": {
        "claude": {
          "away": 0.2664092666100386,
          "draw": 0.28957528970656377,
          "home": 0.4440154436833976,
          "over25": 0.396338525092089,
          "under25": 0.603661474907911
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        "codex": {
          "away": 0.26607076938282187,
          "draw": 0.2804141921447028,
          "home": 0.45351503847247526,
          "over25": 0.4277079995738809,
          "under25": 0.5722920004261192
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        "gemini": {
          "away": 0.2642946911029904,
          "draw": 0.2786191374812351,
          "home": 0.45708617141577446,
          "over25": 0.44583419584519274,
          "under25": 0.5541658041548072
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        "glm-flash": {
          "away": 0.26652539285087523,
          "draw": 0.2912258760428524,
          "home": 0.44224873110627233,
          "over25": 0.42507462295072046,
          "under25": 0.5749253770492795
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        "kimi": {
          "away": 0.2672483006831788,
          "draw": 0.291694497582525,
          "home": 0.44105720173429624,
          "over25": 0.41075432821755725,
          "under25": 0.5892456717824428
        },
        "market": {
          "away": 0.26640926640926643,
          "draw": 0.2895752895752896,
          "home": 0.444015444015444,
          "over25": 0.42782152230971127,
          "under25": 0.5721784776902887
        },
        "mimo": {
          "away": 0.2678249808131735,
          "draw": 0.27472042732464275,
          "home": 0.45745459186218373,
          "over25": 0.43339297618827216,
          "under25": 0.5666070238117278
        },
        "poisson": {
          "away": 0.21522216,
          "draw": 0.25145549,
          "home": 0.53332235,
          "over25": 0.4556675,
          "under25": 0.5443325
        },
        "qwen": {
          "away": 0.2673616473616473,
          "draw": 0.2895752895752896,
          "home": 0.4430630630630631,
          "over25": 0.42782152230971127,
          "under25": 0.5721784776902887
        }
      },
      "home": "Celta",
      "id": "replay-a04e523db6b7cafc",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T14:15:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 3.5,
        "draw": 3.22,
        "home": 2.1,
        "over25": 2.18,
        "under25": 1.63
      },
      "score": null
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  ],
  "id": "daily-2026-10-17-r5",
  "kickoff_window": "Next 24 hours",
  "label": "Daily slate \u00b7 18 October",
  "lock_at": "2026-10-18T14:15:00Z",
  "note": "Tips and stakes were published before the first kickoff and are now sealed for settlement.",
  "policy": {
    "bet_policy": {
      "evidence_status": "required-paper-picks-not-a-positive-value-claim",
      "flat_stake_units": 1.0,
      "longshot_decimal_odds": 5.0,
      "longshot_flat_stake_units": 5.0,
      "market_similarity_is_failure": false,
      "maximum_bets_per_fixture": 1,
      "maximum_bets_per_round": 3,
      "maximum_decimal_odds": 3.0,
      "maximum_longshot_bets": 1,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_fraction": 0.005,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_units": 5.0,
      "maximum_market_probability_gap": 0.15,
      "maximum_round_stake_fraction": 0.05,
      "maximum_round_stake_units": 3.0,
      "maximum_single_stake_fraction": 0.01,
      "maximum_total_open_exposure_fraction": 0.15,
      "minimum_point_ev": -1.0,
      "selection_mode": "required-ranked-paper",
      "stake_assignment": "commissioner-flat-capped",
      "starting_bankroll_units": 1000.0,
      "unsupported_without_evidence_decimal_odds": 8.0
    },
    "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "rubric_sha256": "7ef0538587aff0e3fee1741d26f53b9190b864412103d833aa4abcaf19ae761e",
    "rubric_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "validator_version": "2"
  },
  "published_at": "2026-10-17T15:05:39.376282Z",
  "snapshot_id": "sha256:487434288bc2a1f8d0dd05830c8ede369f54877cfdccf9d7dde4bdf66a1ca708",
  "status": "sealed",
  "submission_meta": {
    "claude": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-17T15:05:09.817070Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-17T15:05:31.077694Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "codex": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-17T15:05:09.817070Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-17T15:05:31.078045Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "gemini": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-17T15:05:09.817070Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-17T15:05:32.843390Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "glm-flash": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-17T15:05:09.817070Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-17T15:05:31.083219Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "kimi": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-17T15:05:09.817070Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-17T15:05:31.084826Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "mimo": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-17T15:05:09.817070Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-17T15:05:39.373714Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "qwen": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-17T15:05:09.817070Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-17T15:05:31.072875Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    }
  }
}