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        "codex": {
          "away": 0.5978924127546402,
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        "gemini": {
          "away": 0.5614573638094984,
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        "glm-flash": {
          "away": 0.5843903521099079,
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        "kimi": {
          "away": 0.5934241959813736,
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          "home": 0.1636411098196613,
          "over25": 0.49450482435681103,
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        "market": {
          "away": 0.5864849573466484,
          "draw": 0.24564814967398887,
          "home": 0.1678668929793627,
          "over25": 0.5,
          "under25": 0.5
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        "mimo": {
          "away": 0.5425265450395671,
          "draw": 0.23804039245186726,
          "home": 0.21943306250856562,
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          "away": 0.5147512,
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          "away": 0.6264849573466484,
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          "over25": 0.5,
          "under25": 0.5
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      },
      "home": "Nott'm Forest",
      "id": "replay-0a37750897fb7b79",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T15:30:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 1.6,
        "draw": 3.82,
        "home": 5.59,
        "over25": 1.86,
        "under25": 1.86
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      "score": null
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    {
      "away": "Atalanta",
      "competition": "Serie A",
      "forecasts": {
        "claude": {
          "away": 0.207562349695811,
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          "home": 0.5473108454038582,
          "over25": 0.551371240846755,
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        "codex": {
          "away": 0.2241916062990182,
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          "home": 0.5237720118858769,
          "over25": 0.5461945329716144,
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        "gemini": {
          "away": 0.2330625796872196,
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          "home": 0.5054884683083265,
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        "glm-flash": {
          "away": 0.2269633925784484,
          "draw": 0.25494923922408336,
          "home": 0.5180873681974683,
          "over25": 0.5430891763907759,
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        "kimi": {
          "away": 0.22699288755045915,
          "draw": 0.2527851717116942,
          "home": 0.5202219407378467,
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          "under25": 0.4570498756778688
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        "market": {
          "away": 0.22780306277255072,
          "draw": 0.25366178881700235,
          "home": 0.518535148410447,
          "over25": 0.5464190981432361,
          "under25": 0.4535809018567639
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        "mimo": {
          "away": 0.25572858966207374,
          "draw": 0.2424395266701252,
          "home": 0.5018318836678011,
          "over25": 0.5593402276647044,
          "under25": 0.44065977233529563
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        "poisson": {
          "away": 0.41015999,
          "draw": 0.25611721,
          "home": 0.3337228,
          "over25": 0.51094948,
          "under25": 0.48905052
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        "qwen": {
          "away": 0.2135173484868364,
          "draw": 0.25366178881700235,
          "home": 0.5328208626961612,
          "over25": 0.5464190981432361,
          "under25": 0.4535809018567639
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      },
      "home": "Milan",
      "id": "replay-04e124eb0470e18e",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T16:00:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 4.12,
        "draw": 3.7,
        "home": 1.81,
        "over25": 1.71,
        "under25": 2.06
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      "score": null
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  ],
  "id": "daily-2026-10-17-r6",
  "kickoff_window": "Next 24 hours",
  "label": "Daily slate \u00b7 18 October",
  "lock_at": "2026-10-18T15:15:00Z",
  "note": "Tips and stakes were published before the first kickoff and are now sealed for settlement.",
  "policy": {
    "bet_policy": {
      "evidence_status": "required-paper-picks-not-a-positive-value-claim",
      "flat_stake_units": 1.0,
      "longshot_decimal_odds": 5.0,
      "longshot_flat_stake_units": 5.0,
      "market_similarity_is_failure": false,
      "maximum_bets_per_fixture": 1,
      "maximum_bets_per_round": 3,
      "maximum_decimal_odds": 3.0,
      "maximum_longshot_bets": 1,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_fraction": 0.005,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_units": 5.0,
      "maximum_market_probability_gap": 0.15,
      "maximum_round_stake_fraction": 0.05,
      "maximum_round_stake_units": 3.0,
      "maximum_single_stake_fraction": 0.01,
      "maximum_total_open_exposure_fraction": 0.15,
      "minimum_point_ev": -1.0,
      "selection_mode": "required-ranked-paper",
      "stake_assignment": "commissioner-flat-capped",
      "starting_bankroll_units": 1000.0,
      "unsupported_without_evidence_decimal_odds": 8.0
    },
    "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "rubric_sha256": "7ef0538587aff0e3fee1741d26f53b9190b864412103d833aa4abcaf19ae761e",
    "rubric_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "validator_version": "2"
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  "published_at": "2026-10-17T16:05:41.935109Z",
  "snapshot_id": "sha256:20cf60f60fb602707c7e1a677b6148a3cacc95708dd4fb2a64187bfebcca3f5e",
  "status": "sealed",
  "submission_meta": {
    "claude": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-17T16:05:09.223867Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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          "validation_status": "failed"
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 11,
            "round-bet-count-cap": 16
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 30,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
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      "generated_at": "2026-10-17T16:05:31.036553Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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    "codex": {
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        "adapter": {
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          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
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          "adjusted": true,
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          "dropped_by_reason": {
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
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          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
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        "commissioner_fallback": {
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          "status": "accepted",
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      "generated_at": "2026-10-17T16:05:31.034825Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "gemini": {
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      "execution_provenance": {
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        "adapter": {
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          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
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          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
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            "round-bet-count-cap": 16
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
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        "commissioner_fallback": {
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          "status": "accepted",
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      "generated_at": "2026-10-17T16:05:33.976661Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "glm-flash": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-17T16:05:09.223867Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
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          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
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            "round-bet-count-cap": 16
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
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        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
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      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-17T16:05:31.021590Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "kimi": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-17T16:05:09.223867Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 1,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 11,
            "round-bet-count-cap": 15
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 30,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
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      "generated_at": "2026-10-17T16:05:31.032975Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "mimo": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-17T16:05:09.223867Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 11,
            "round-bet-count-cap": 16
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 30,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
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      "generated_at": "2026-10-17T16:05:41.931632Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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    "qwen": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-17T16:05:09.223867Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
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          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
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            "round-bet-count-cap": 16
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 30,
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        "commissioner_fallback": {
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          "status": "accepted",
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      "generated_at": "2026-10-17T16:05:31.015639Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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  }
}