{
  "available_bankrolls": {
    "claude": 988.45,
    "codex": 1000.21,
    "gemini": 1014.0741,
    "glm-flash": 972.76,
    "kimi": 994.83,
    "mimo": 972.16,
    "qwen": 994.98
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  "bets": [
    {
      "bot_id": "claude",
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      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.05540117,
      "odds": 2.25,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.420, model EV=-5.5%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "codex",
      "fixture_id": "replay-dce1c332966bb7e2",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.06019895,
      "odds": 1.52,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.618, model EV=-6.0%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "gemini",
      "fixture_id": "replay-dce1c332966bb7e2",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.06651906,
      "odds": 2.25,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.415, model EV=-6.7%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "kimi",
      "fixture_id": "replay-dce1c332966bb7e2",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.05008443,
      "odds": 2.25,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.422, model EV=-5.0%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "glm-flash",
      "fixture_id": "replay-dce1c332966bb7e2",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.05696312,
      "odds": 2.25,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.419, model EV=-5.7%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "mimo",
      "fixture_id": "replay-dce1c332966bb7e2",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.01719383,
      "odds": 2.25,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.437, model EV=-1.7%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "qwen",
      "fixture_id": "replay-dce1c332966bb7e2",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.05359642,
      "odds": 1.52,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.623, model EV=-5.4%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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  "fingerprint": "sha256:e2c9b06bd98d69ef305a022c54e18f6dfa217547f51208a5e01d1c6d660a359a",
  "fixtures": [
    {
      "away": "Leyton Orient",
      "competition": "League One",
      "forecasts": {
        "claude": {
          "away": 0.16761284078236283,
          "draw": 0.2192770337505734,
          "home": 0.6131101254670638,
          "over25": 0.580178298951703,
          "under25": 0.41982170104829697
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        "codex": {
          "away": 0.16348506127046503,
          "draw": 0.21822477643562288,
          "home": 0.6182901622939121,
          "over25": 0.5869124699799698,
          "under25": 0.4130875300200302
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        "gemini": {
          "away": 0.18413678391578273,
          "draw": 0.22055138446861974,
          "home": 0.5953118316155975,
          "over25": 0.5851195843595884,
          "under25": 0.41488041564041156
        },
        "glm-flash": {
          "away": 0.16824090117863547,
          "draw": 0.22290069984903013,
          "home": 0.6088583989723344,
          "over25": 0.5808724956137403,
          "under25": 0.4191275043862597
        },
        "kimi": {
          "away": 0.17352395001506715,
          "draw": 0.22242979844069732,
          "home": 0.6040462515442355,
          "over25": 0.5778153011391399,
          "under25": 0.4221846988608601
        },
        "market": {
          "away": 0.1676128402852013,
          "draw": 0.2192770334084045,
          "home": 0.6131101263063942,
          "over25": 0.5874673629242819,
          "under25": 0.41253263707571797
        },
        "mimo": {
          "away": 0.20554081213664788,
          "draw": 0.22114527724528377,
          "home": 0.5733139106180684,
          "over25": 0.563197257132371,
          "under25": 0.436802742867629
        },
        "poisson": {
          "away": 0.37307314,
          "draw": 0.2664542,
          "home": 0.36047266,
          "over25": 0.47079261,
          "under25": 0.52920739
        },
        "qwen": {
          "away": 0.15808903076139172,
          "draw": 0.21927703340840451,
          "home": 0.6226339358302038,
          "over25": 0.587467362924282,
          "under25": 0.41253263707571797
        }
      },
      "home": "Reading",
      "id": "replay-dce1c332966bb7e2",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-21T19:00:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 5.56,
        "draw": 4.25,
        "home": 1.52,
        "over25": 1.58,
        "under25": 2.25
      },
      "score": null
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  ],
  "id": "daily-2026-10-20-r2",
  "kickoff_window": "Next 24 hours",
  "label": "Daily slate \u00b7 21 October",
  "lock_at": "2026-10-21T19:00:00Z",
  "note": "Tips and stakes were published before the first kickoff and are now sealed for settlement.",
  "policy": {
    "bet_policy": {
      "evidence_status": "required-paper-picks-not-a-positive-value-claim",
      "flat_stake_units": 1.0,
      "longshot_decimal_odds": 5.0,
      "longshot_flat_stake_units": 5.0,
      "market_similarity_is_failure": false,
      "maximum_bets_per_fixture": 1,
      "maximum_bets_per_round": 3,
      "maximum_decimal_odds": 3.0,
      "maximum_longshot_bets": 1,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_fraction": 0.005,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_units": 5.0,
      "maximum_market_probability_gap": 0.15,
      "maximum_round_stake_fraction": 0.05,
      "maximum_round_stake_units": 3.0,
      "maximum_single_stake_fraction": 0.01,
      "maximum_total_open_exposure_fraction": 0.15,
      "minimum_point_ev": -1.0,
      "selection_mode": "required-ranked-paper",
      "stake_assignment": "commissioner-flat-capped",
      "starting_bankroll_units": 1000.0,
      "unsupported_without_evidence_decimal_odds": 8.0
    },
    "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "rubric_sha256": "7ef0538587aff0e3fee1741d26f53b9190b864412103d833aa4abcaf19ae761e",
    "rubric_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "validator_version": "2"
  },
  "published_at": "2026-10-20T19:05:25.690498Z",
  "snapshot_id": "sha256:05316d0619f1d9ba8e2ddb8074d4e95f7b94b4145d9ab85bc94cf9e8c2eacf02",
  "status": "sealed",
  "submission_meta": {
    "claude": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-20T19:05:09.654820Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-20T19:05:17.644960Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "codex": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-20T19:05:09.654820Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-20T19:05:17.645391Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "gemini": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-20T19:05:09.654820Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-20T19:05:19.402116Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "glm-flash": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-20T19:05:09.654820Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-20T19:05:17.646698Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "kimi": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-20T19:05:09.654820Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-20T19:05:17.645974Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "mimo": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-20T19:05:09.654820Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-20T19:05:25.688422Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "qwen": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-20T19:05:09.654820Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-20T19:05:17.636741Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    }
  }
}