{
  "available_bankrolls": {
    "claude": 982.62,
    "codex": 990.45,
    "gemini": 1005.5141,
    "glm-flash": 966.23,
    "kimi": 990.39,
    "mimo": 961.41,
    "qwen": 986.04
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  "bets": [
    {
      "bot_id": "claude",
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      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": 0.02071802,
      "odds": 1.6,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.638, model EV=+2.1%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "codex",
      "fixture_id": "replay-76f362891f4df826",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.03987629,
      "odds": 1.56,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.615, model EV=-4.0%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "gemini",
      "fixture_id": "replay-76f362891f4df826",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": 0.03401174,
      "odds": 1.6,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.646, model EV=+3.4%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "kimi",
      "fixture_id": "replay-76f362891f4df826",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.02517416,
      "odds": 1.6,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.609, model EV=-2.5%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "glm-flash",
      "fixture_id": "replay-76f362891f4df826",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.06199519,
      "odds": 1.6,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.586, model EV=-6.2%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "mimo",
      "fixture_id": "replay-76f362891f4df826",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.06655583,
      "odds": 2.24,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.417, model EV=-6.7%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "qwen",
      "fixture_id": "replay-76f362891f4df826",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.03396105,
      "odds": 1.56,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.619, model EV=-3.4%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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  "fingerprint": "sha256:97db0db6c9351fa295322ff40566b9287d7e0be343289e610449a3e972585628",
  "fixtures": [
    {
      "away": "Getafe",
      "competition": "La Liga",
      "forecasts": {
        "claude": {
          "away": 0.13815987897906024,
          "draw": 0.2349875816939856,
          "home": 0.6268525393269542,
          "over25": 0.3620512358273157,
          "under25": 0.6379487641726843
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        "codex": {
          "away": 0.1500686274152322,
          "draw": 0.2344674584599623,
          "home": 0.6154639141248055,
          "over25": 0.4163174356436424,
          "under25": 0.5836825643563577
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        "gemini": {
          "away": 0.1807838707746517,
          "draw": 0.2781461780248892,
          "home": 0.5410699512004591,
          "over25": 0.35374266187141007,
          "under25": 0.6462573381285899
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        "glm-flash": {
          "away": 0.1527685602485097,
          "draw": 0.24827080698191395,
          "home": 0.5989606327695763,
          "over25": 0.4137469928346762,
          "under25": 0.5862530071653238
        },
        "kimi": {
          "away": 0.15301838099264026,
          "draw": 0.2518191277533444,
          "home": 0.5951624912540153,
          "over25": 0.39073385298038427,
          "under25": 0.6092661470196157
        },
        "market": {
          "away": 0.15336620710475998,
          "draw": 0.2459494817349301,
          "home": 0.60068431116031,
          "over25": 0.41666666666666663,
          "under25": 0.5833333333333334
        },
        "mimo": {
          "away": 0.18318761380372078,
          "draw": 0.24409133532414112,
          "home": 0.5727210508721381,
          "over25": 0.41671614717255206,
          "under25": 0.583283852827448
        },
        "poisson": {
          "away": 0.17323151,
          "draw": 0.28404042,
          "home": 0.54272807,
          "over25": 0.31452299,
          "under25": 0.68547701
        },
        "qwen": {
          "away": 0.13479477853333138,
          "draw": 0.2459494817349301,
          "home": 0.6192557397317385,
          "over25": 0.41666666666666663,
          "under25": 0.5833333333333334
        }
      },
      "home": "Ath Bilbao",
      "id": "replay-76f362891f4df826",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-25T13:00:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 6.11,
        "draw": 3.81,
        "home": 1.56,
        "over25": 2.24,
        "under25": 1.6
      },
      "score": null
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  ],
  "id": "daily-2026-10-24-r2",
  "kickoff_window": "Next 24 hours",
  "label": "Daily slate \u00b7 25 October",
  "lock_at": "2026-10-25T13:00:00Z",
  "note": "Tips and stakes were published before the first kickoff and are now sealed for settlement.",
  "policy": {
    "bet_policy": {
      "evidence_status": "required-paper-picks-not-a-positive-value-claim",
      "flat_stake_units": 1.0,
      "longshot_decimal_odds": 5.0,
      "longshot_flat_stake_units": 5.0,
      "market_similarity_is_failure": false,
      "maximum_bets_per_fixture": 1,
      "maximum_bets_per_round": 3,
      "maximum_decimal_odds": 3.0,
      "maximum_longshot_bets": 1,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_fraction": 0.005,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_units": 5.0,
      "maximum_market_probability_gap": 0.15,
      "maximum_round_stake_fraction": 0.05,
      "maximum_round_stake_units": 3.0,
      "maximum_single_stake_fraction": 0.01,
      "maximum_total_open_exposure_fraction": 0.15,
      "minimum_point_ev": -1.0,
      "selection_mode": "required-ranked-paper",
      "stake_assignment": "commissioner-flat-capped",
      "starting_bankroll_units": 1000.0,
      "unsupported_without_evidence_decimal_odds": 8.0
    },
    "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "rubric_sha256": "7ef0538587aff0e3fee1741d26f53b9190b864412103d833aa4abcaf19ae761e",
    "rubric_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "validator_version": "2"
  },
  "published_at": "2026-10-24T13:05:28.370674Z",
  "snapshot_id": "sha256:8abea8d7d1c088e2ab70b70611e91d23d00257ee5f33b80552abb316b70857ff",
  "status": "sealed",
  "submission_meta": {
    "claude": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-24T13:05:10.415353Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-24T13:05:20.439670Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "codex": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-24T13:05:10.415353Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-24T13:05:20.441623Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "gemini": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-24T13:05:10.415353Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-24T13:05:22.126396Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "glm-flash": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-24T13:05:10.415353Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-24T13:05:20.443376Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "kimi": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-24T13:05:10.415353Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-24T13:05:20.449922Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "mimo": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-24T13:05:10.415353Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-24T13:05:28.368333Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "qwen": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-24T13:05:10.415353Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-24T13:05:20.439800Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    }
  }
}