{
  "available_bankrolls": {
    "claude": 978.62,
    "codex": 986.45,
    "gemini": 1001.5141,
    "glm-flash": 962.23,
    "kimi": 988.62,
    "mimo": 957.41,
    "qwen": 982.04
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  "bets": [
    {
      "bot_id": "claude",
      "fixture_id": "replay-cb9aaab7b710616a",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": 0.09603418,
      "odds": 2.28,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.481, model EV=+9.6%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "codex",
      "fixture_id": "replay-cb9aaab7b710616a",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.06374866,
      "odds": 1.36,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.688, model EV=-6.4%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "gemini",
      "fixture_id": "replay-cb9aaab7b710616a",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": 0.00690581,
      "odds": 1.36,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.740, model EV=+0.7%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "kimi",
      "fixture_id": "replay-cb9aaab7b710616a",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.0114226,
      "odds": 2.28,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.434, model EV=-1.1%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "glm-flash",
      "fixture_id": "replay-cb9aaab7b710616a",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.04980249,
      "odds": 3.0,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.317, model EV=-5.0%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "mimo",
      "fixture_id": "replay-cb9aaab7b710616a",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.00129211,
      "odds": 2.71,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.369, model EV=-0.1%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "qwen",
      "fixture_id": "replay-cb9aaab7b710616a",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": 0.01665767,
      "odds": 2.28,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.446, model EV=+1.7%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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  "fingerprint": "sha256:377d709dece6f01b3b43767057843495d760c4237df2ae81cb83c6f5ba38b044",
  "fixtures": [
    {
      "away": "Leverkusen",
      "competition": "Bundesliga",
      "forecasts": {
        "claude": {
          "away": 0.4807167467247124,
          "draw": 0.2323160984396218,
          "home": 0.28696715483566587,
          "over25": 0.7792201545586094,
          "under25": 0.22077984544139062
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        "codex": {
          "away": 0.40884742672969177,
          "draw": 0.25367935430384314,
          "home": 0.33747321896646504,
          "over25": 0.6884201009931653,
          "under25": 0.3115798990068347
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        "gemini": {
          "away": 0.44149303257405315,
          "draw": 0.22486228255472165,
          "home": 0.33364468487122523,
          "over25": 0.7403719155399281,
          "under25": 0.2596280844600719
        },
        "glm-flash": {
          "away": 0.4118930323615,
          "draw": 0.24444703701679363,
          "home": 0.3436599306217064,
          "over25": 0.6832674953407181,
          "under25": 0.31673250465928193
        },
        "kimi": {
          "away": 0.4335865798751213,
          "draw": 0.23498255478639438,
          "home": 0.33143086533848426,
          "over25": 0.7171113601563257,
          "under25": 0.2828886398436743
        },
        "market": {
          "away": 0.4106643936165175,
          "draw": 0.24383198370980727,
          "home": 0.34550362267367524,
          "over25": 0.6880733944954128,
          "under25": 0.3119266055045871
        },
        "mimo": {
          "away": 0.3990946372581753,
          "draw": 0.23237846719206534,
          "home": 0.3685268955497593,
          "over25": 0.6861417722672726,
          "under25": 0.3138582277327274
        },
        "poisson": {
          "away": 0.59981336,
          "draw": 0.18116319,
          "home": 0.21902345,
          "over25": 0.78199256,
          "under25": 0.21800744
        },
        "qwen": {
          "away": 0.4459024888546127,
          "draw": 0.24383198370980727,
          "home": 0.31026552743558,
          "over25": 0.6880733944954128,
          "under25": 0.3119266055045872
        }
      },
      "home": "Hoffenheim",
      "id": "replay-cb9aaab7b710616a",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-25T14:30:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 2.28,
        "draw": 3.84,
        "home": 2.71,
        "over25": 1.36,
        "under25": 3.0
      },
      "score": null
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  ],
  "id": "daily-2026-10-24-r4",
  "kickoff_window": "Next 24 hours",
  "label": "Daily slate \u00b7 25 October",
  "lock_at": "2026-10-25T14:30:00Z",
  "note": "Tips and stakes were published before the first kickoff and are now sealed for settlement.",
  "policy": {
    "bet_policy": {
      "evidence_status": "required-paper-picks-not-a-positive-value-claim",
      "flat_stake_units": 1.0,
      "longshot_decimal_odds": 5.0,
      "longshot_flat_stake_units": 5.0,
      "market_similarity_is_failure": false,
      "maximum_bets_per_fixture": 1,
      "maximum_bets_per_round": 3,
      "maximum_decimal_odds": 3.0,
      "maximum_longshot_bets": 1,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_fraction": 0.005,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_units": 5.0,
      "maximum_market_probability_gap": 0.15,
      "maximum_round_stake_fraction": 0.05,
      "maximum_round_stake_units": 3.0,
      "maximum_single_stake_fraction": 0.01,
      "maximum_total_open_exposure_fraction": 0.15,
      "minimum_point_ev": -1.0,
      "selection_mode": "required-ranked-paper",
      "stake_assignment": "commissioner-flat-capped",
      "starting_bankroll_units": 1000.0,
      "unsupported_without_evidence_decimal_odds": 8.0
    },
    "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "rubric_sha256": "7ef0538587aff0e3fee1741d26f53b9190b864412103d833aa4abcaf19ae761e",
    "rubric_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "validator_version": "2"
  },
  "published_at": "2026-10-24T15:05:34.867960Z",
  "snapshot_id": "sha256:ecb52ce99cc475c2e42b80e650713576e34d39c84200ac286357b70b329e3e7b",
  "status": "sealed",
  "submission_meta": {
    "claude": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-24T15:05:08.162856Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 3,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-24T15:05:26.883917Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "codex": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-24T15:05:08.162856Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 3,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-24T15:05:26.884983Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "gemini": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-24T15:05:08.162856Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 3,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-24T15:05:28.549922Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "glm-flash": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-24T15:05:08.162856Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 3,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-24T15:05:26.878871Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "kimi": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-24T15:05:08.162856Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 3,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-24T15:05:26.881821Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "mimo": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-24T15:05:08.162856Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 3,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-24T15:05:34.865521Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "qwen": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-24T15:05:08.162856Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 3,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-24T15:05:26.880049Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    }
  }
}