{
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      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.643, model EV=+2.8%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
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      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.572, model EV=-5.0%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
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      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.805, model EV=-6.7%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
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      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.611, model EV=-2.3%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
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      "stake": 1.0
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      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.490, model EV=-6.4%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
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      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
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      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.550, model EV=+0.6%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
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      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
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      "bot_id": "kimi",
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      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.818, model EV=-5.1%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
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      "bot_id": "glm-flash",
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      "odds": 1.91,
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      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.493, model EV=-5.8%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
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      "stake": 1.0
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      "bot_id": "glm-flash",
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      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.06487192,
      "odds": 1.6,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.584, model EV=-6.5%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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      "market": "OU25",
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      "odds": 1.83,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.514, model EV=-5.9%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "mimo",
      "fixture_id": "replay-814ff1624710c9f7",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.06986599,
      "odds": 1.6,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.581, model EV=-7.0%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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      "bot_id": "qwen",
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      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.01112208,
      "odds": 1.66,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.596, model EV=-1.1%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "qwen",
      "fixture_id": "replay-814ff1624710c9f7",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.05862608,
      "odds": 1.6,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.588, model EV=-5.9%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
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          "away": 0.5252027614107402,
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          "home": 0.23225404634687397,
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          "under25": 0.48930481283422456
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      "home": "Udinese",
      "id": "replay-8ab312fd6f31b77d",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-25T19:45:00Z",
      "odds": {
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        "home": 5.02,
        "over25": 1.83,
        "under25": 1.91
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    {
      "away": "Real Madrid",
      "competition": "La Liga",
      "forecasts": {
        "claude": {
          "away": 0.1925267919541756,
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          "home": 0.6426698614300985,
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          "home": 0.5844550495167575,
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          "away": 0.2337037902449725,
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        "market": {
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          "home": 0.5855015554942984,
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        "mimo": {
          "away": 0.241068901681199,
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          "home": 0.5813337553612771,
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        "poisson": {
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      "home": "Barcelona",
      "id": "replay-814ff1624710c9f7",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-25T20:00:00Z",
      "odds": {
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  "id": "daily-2026-10-24-r8",
  "kickoff_window": "Next 24 hours",
  "label": "Daily slate \u00b7 25 October",
  "lock_at": "2026-10-25T19:45:00Z",
  "note": "Tips and stakes were published before the first kickoff and are now sealed for settlement.",
  "policy": {
    "bet_policy": {
      "evidence_status": "required-paper-picks-not-a-positive-value-claim",
      "flat_stake_units": 1.0,
      "longshot_decimal_odds": 5.0,
      "longshot_flat_stake_units": 5.0,
      "market_similarity_is_failure": false,
      "maximum_bets_per_fixture": 1,
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      "maximum_decimal_odds": 3.0,
      "maximum_longshot_bets": 1,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_fraction": 0.005,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_units": 5.0,
      "maximum_market_probability_gap": 0.15,
      "maximum_round_stake_fraction": 0.05,
      "maximum_round_stake_units": 3.0,
      "maximum_single_stake_fraction": 0.01,
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      "stake_assignment": "commissioner-flat-capped",
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      "unsupported_without_evidence_decimal_odds": 8.0
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    "rubric_sha256": "7ef0538587aff0e3fee1741d26f53b9190b864412103d833aa4abcaf19ae761e",
    "rubric_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
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  "snapshot_id": "sha256:fcfae28a56efa36ab8eb49785ce511486e63744733c1c19d261ac3ac3e073dfd",
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          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
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          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
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          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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        "commissioner_fallback": {
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          "status": "accepted",
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      "generated_at": "2026-10-24T20:05:18.125994Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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    "codex": {
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          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
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        "commissioner_fallback": {
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      "generated_at": "2026-10-24T20:05:18.124887Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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    "gemini": {
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          "validation_errors": [
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      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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      "execution_provenance": {
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          "validation_errors": [
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      "generated_at": "2026-10-24T20:05:18.125394Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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    "kimi": {
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          "validation_errors": [
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      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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    "mimo": {
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        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-24T20:05:26.008561Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "qwen": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-24T20:05:09.462769Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 3,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 5
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 2,
          "official_stake": 2.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 10,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-24T20:05:18.111688Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    }
  }
}