{
  "available_bankrolls": {
    "claude": 986.79,
    "codex": 990.16,
    "gemini": 1012.9741,
    "glm-flash": 973.85,
    "kimi": 989.8,
    "mimo": 957.19,
    "qwen": 984.67
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  "bets": [
    {
      "bot_id": "claude",
      "fixture_id": "replay-6bce3956ec6fa048",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": 0.07626011,
      "odds": 1.79,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.601, model EV=+7.6%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "codex",
      "fixture_id": "replay-6bce3956ec6fa048",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.04819458,
      "odds": 1.69,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.563, model EV=-4.8%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "gemini",
      "fixture_id": "replay-6bce3956ec6fa048",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.01418176,
      "odds": 1.79,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.551, model EV=-1.4%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "kimi",
      "fixture_id": "replay-6bce3956ec6fa048",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": 0.0005027,
      "odds": 1.79,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.559, model EV=+0.1%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "glm-flash",
      "fixture_id": "replay-6bce3956ec6fa048",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.05844613,
      "odds": 1.96,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.480, model EV=-5.8%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "mimo",
      "fixture_id": "replay-6bce3956ec6fa048",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.06378925,
      "odds": 1.79,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.523, model EV=-6.4%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "qwen",
      "fixture_id": "replay-6bce3956ec6fa048",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.03280517,
      "odds": 1.69,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.572, model EV=-3.3%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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  "fingerprint": "sha256:db9eedfabe0fb966004f260121610baed4dcdd389047d630d382ed657a1d3a3b",
  "fixtures": [
    {
      "away": "Monza",
      "competition": "Serie A",
      "forecasts": {
        "claude": {
          "away": 0.17450576556716496,
          "draw": 0.23128418031740988,
          "home": 0.5942100541154252,
          "over25": 0.6012626312917358,
          "under25": 0.39873736870826415
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        "codex": {
          "away": 0.19541372255515632,
          "draw": 0.24138780234595814,
          "home": 0.5631984750988855,
          "over25": 0.523441078991364,
          "under25": 0.47655892100863595
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        "gemini": {
          "away": 0.23531416663578855,
          "draw": 0.24042618020338355,
          "home": 0.5242596531608279,
          "over25": 0.5507364448463034,
          "under25": 0.44926355515369665
        },
        "glm-flash": {
          "away": 0.2000811813210352,
          "draw": 0.24505303905870085,
          "home": 0.554865779620264,
          "over25": 0.5196153715614263,
          "under25": 0.48038462843857366
        },
        "kimi": {
          "away": 0.20607873156389722,
          "draw": 0.24062632012159912,
          "home": 0.5532949483145037,
          "over25": 0.5589400577385537,
          "under25": 0.4410599422614463
        },
        "market": {
          "away": 0.19903645777714038,
          "draw": 0.24389700655074462,
          "home": 0.557066535672115,
          "over25": 0.5226666666666666,
          "under25": 0.47733333333333333
        },
        "mimo": {
          "away": 0.23249140186993553,
          "draw": 0.23820983074305016,
          "home": 0.5292987673870143,
          "over25": 0.5230227651974034,
          "under25": 0.4769772348025966
        },
        "poisson": {
          "away": 0.29748613,
          "draw": 0.26954584,
          "home": 0.43296803,
          "over25": 0.44471876,
          "under25": 0.55528124
        },
        "qwen": {
          "away": 0.18379836253904516,
          "draw": 0.24389700655074462,
          "home": 0.5723046309102102,
          "over25": 0.5226666666666666,
          "under25": 0.4773333333333334
        }
      },
      "home": "Bologna",
      "id": "replay-6bce3956ec6fa048",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-31T14:00:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 4.73,
        "draw": 3.86,
        "home": 1.69,
        "over25": 1.79,
        "under25": 1.96
      },
      "score": null
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  ],
  "id": "daily-2026-10-30-r3",
  "kickoff_window": "Next 24 hours",
  "label": "Daily slate \u00b7 31 October",
  "lock_at": "2026-10-31T14:00:00Z",
  "note": "Tips and stakes were published before the first kickoff and are now sealed for settlement.",
  "policy": {
    "bet_policy": {
      "evidence_status": "required-paper-picks-not-a-positive-value-claim",
      "flat_stake_units": 1.0,
      "longshot_decimal_odds": 5.0,
      "longshot_flat_stake_units": 5.0,
      "market_similarity_is_failure": false,
      "maximum_bets_per_fixture": 1,
      "maximum_bets_per_round": 3,
      "maximum_decimal_odds": 3.0,
      "maximum_longshot_bets": 1,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_fraction": 0.005,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_units": 5.0,
      "maximum_market_probability_gap": 0.15,
      "maximum_round_stake_fraction": 0.05,
      "maximum_round_stake_units": 3.0,
      "maximum_single_stake_fraction": 0.01,
      "maximum_total_open_exposure_fraction": 0.15,
      "minimum_point_ev": -1.0,
      "selection_mode": "required-ranked-paper",
      "stake_assignment": "commissioner-flat-capped",
      "starting_bankroll_units": 1000.0,
      "unsupported_without_evidence_decimal_odds": 8.0
    },
    "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "rubric_sha256": "7ef0538587aff0e3fee1741d26f53b9190b864412103d833aa4abcaf19ae761e",
    "rubric_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "validator_version": "2"
  },
  "published_at": "2026-10-30T14:05:30.317742Z",
  "snapshot_id": "sha256:f81261f1254d1f500251d6b02422262aa0276373d9c5a63c3ce8d34a646bffcb",
  "status": "sealed",
  "submission_meta": {
    "claude": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-30T14:05:10.398690Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-30T14:05:21.950864Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "codex": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-30T14:05:10.398690Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-30T14:05:21.947026Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "gemini": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-30T14:05:10.398690Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "bet 0 outside-paper-price-band"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-30T14:05:23.844919Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "glm-flash": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-30T14:05:10.398690Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-30T14:05:21.950020Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "kimi": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-30T14:05:10.398690Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-30T14:05:21.950983Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "mimo": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-30T14:05:10.398690Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-30T14:05:30.314276Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "qwen": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-30T14:05:10.398690Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-30T14:05:21.935165Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    }
  }
}