{
  "available_bankrolls": {
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    "codex": 978.43,
    "gemini": 1001.8441,
    "glm-flash": 963.27,
    "kimi": 979.76,
    "mimo": 951.53,
    "qwen": 975.06
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  "bets": [
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      "odds": 1.19,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.849, model EV=+1.0%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
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      "stake": 1.0
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      "bot_id": "codex",
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      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.06405691,
      "odds": 1.19,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.787, model EV=-6.4%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
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      "stake": 1.0
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      "bot_id": "gemini",
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      "market": "OU25",
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      "odds": 1.19,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.795, model EV=-5.4%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "kimi",
      "fixture_id": "replay-31a379dbb0aa0af8",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.04058269,
      "odds": 1.19,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.806, model EV=-4.1%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "glm-flash",
      "fixture_id": "replay-31a379dbb0aa0af8",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.06690189,
      "odds": 1.21,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.771, model EV=-6.7%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "mimo",
      "fixture_id": "replay-31a379dbb0aa0af8",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.10397164,
      "odds": 1.19,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.753, model EV=-10.4%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "qwen",
      "fixture_id": "replay-31a379dbb0aa0af8",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.0124603,
      "odds": 1.21,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.816, model EV=-1.2%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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  "fixtures": [
    {
      "away": "Real Madrid",
      "competition": "La Liga",
      "forecasts": {
        "claude": {
          "away": 0.8237581731451294,
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          "home": 0.0678831328780917,
          "over25": 0.8488199931616803,
          "under25": 0.15118000683831967
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          "away": 0.7699168486419802,
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          "home": 0.08379126963087807,
          "over25": 0.7865068016438714,
          "under25": 0.21349319835612857
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          "away": 0.7414029828498776,
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          "home": 0.11965657342191924,
          "over25": 0.7953484097324995,
          "under25": 0.20465159026750046
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          "away": 0.7711554653772756,
          "draw": 0.1322903077604557,
          "home": 0.09655422686226864,
          "over25": 0.7792162512606707,
          "under25": 0.22078374873932927
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        "kimi": {
          "away": 0.7859167372335021,
          "draw": 0.12366077776471676,
          "home": 0.09042248500178121,
          "over25": 0.8062330337410121,
          "under25": 0.19376696625898793
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        "market": {
          "away": 0.7761485089589456,
          "draw": 0.12918015073457007,
          "home": 0.09467134030648429,
          "over25": 0.7867383512544802,
          "under25": 0.2132616487455197
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        "mimo": {
          "away": 0.6824652181698094,
          "draw": 0.14746552467372026,
          "home": 0.17006925715647037,
          "over25": 0.7529650122665508,
          "under25": 0.24703498773344923
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        "poisson": {
          "away": 0.51005621,
          "draw": 0.24655873,
          "home": 0.24338506,
          "over25": 0.5014108,
          "under25": 0.4985892
        },
        "qwen": {
          "away": 0.8161485089589458,
          "draw": 0.12918015073457007,
          "home": 0.05467134030648428,
          "over25": 0.7867383512544803,
          "under25": 0.21326164874551967
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      },
      "home": "Santander",
      "id": "replay-31a379dbb0aa0af8",
      "kickoff": "2026-11-01T15:15:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 1.21,
        "draw": 7.27,
        "home": 9.92,
        "over25": 1.19,
        "under25": 4.39
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      "score": null
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  "id": "daily-2026-10-31-r5",
  "kickoff_window": "Next 24 hours",
  "label": "Daily slate \u00b7 1 November",
  "lock_at": "2026-11-01T15:15:00Z",
  "note": "Tips and stakes were published before the first kickoff and are now sealed for settlement.",
  "policy": {
    "bet_policy": {
      "evidence_status": "required-paper-picks-not-a-positive-value-claim",
      "flat_stake_units": 1.0,
      "longshot_decimal_odds": 5.0,
      "longshot_flat_stake_units": 5.0,
      "market_similarity_is_failure": false,
      "maximum_bets_per_fixture": 1,
      "maximum_bets_per_round": 3,
      "maximum_decimal_odds": 3.0,
      "maximum_longshot_bets": 1,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_fraction": 0.005,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_units": 5.0,
      "maximum_market_probability_gap": 0.15,
      "maximum_round_stake_fraction": 0.05,
      "maximum_round_stake_units": 3.0,
      "maximum_single_stake_fraction": 0.01,
      "maximum_total_open_exposure_fraction": 0.15,
      "minimum_point_ev": -1.0,
      "selection_mode": "required-ranked-paper",
      "stake_assignment": "commissioner-flat-capped",
      "starting_bankroll_units": 1000.0,
      "unsupported_without_evidence_decimal_odds": 8.0
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    "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "rubric_sha256": "7ef0538587aff0e3fee1741d26f53b9190b864412103d833aa4abcaf19ae761e",
    "rubric_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "validator_version": "2"
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  "published_at": "2026-10-31T16:05:36.869925Z",
  "snapshot_id": "sha256:2cf9a5b7f34fdac48c6dbfaf6799bd21577033a8095c6bf2bf70c814c909e5ec",
  "status": "sealed",
  "submission_meta": {
    "claude": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-31T16:05:09.923931Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 1,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2,
            "unsupported-extreme-price": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
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      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-31T16:05:28.971145Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "codex": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-31T16:05:09.923931Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 1,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2,
            "unsupported-extreme-price": 1
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-31T16:05:28.969589Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "gemini": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-31T16:05:09.923931Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 1,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2,
            "unsupported-extreme-price": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
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          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-31T16:05:30.658646Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "glm-flash": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-31T16:05:09.923931Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 1,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2,
            "unsupported-extreme-price": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-31T16:05:28.971808Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "kimi": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-31T16:05:09.923931Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 1,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2,
            "unsupported-extreme-price": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-31T16:05:28.971459Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "mimo": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-31T16:05:09.923931Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 1,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2,
            "unsupported-extreme-price": 1
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
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          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
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      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-31T16:05:36.867789Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "qwen": {
      "decision_time": "2026-10-31T16:05:09.923931Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
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            "outside-paper-price-band": 2,
            "unsupported-extreme-price": 1
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
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          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
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      },
      "generated_at": "2026-10-31T16:05:28.963820Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    }
  }
}