{
  "available_bankrolls": {
    "claude": 985.81,
    "codex": 986.02,
    "gemini": 1012.0141,
    "glm-flash": 972.97,
    "kimi": 993.89,
    "mimo": 966.44,
    "qwen": 981.81
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  "bets": [
    {
      "bot_id": "claude",
      "fixture_id": "replay-7e3249da2740f056",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": 0.07648995,
      "odds": 1.54,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.699, model EV=+7.6%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "codex",
      "fixture_id": "replay-7e3249da2740f056",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.05264127,
      "odds": 2.31,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.410, model EV=-5.3%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "gemini",
      "fixture_id": "replay-7e3249da2740f056",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": 0.04696137,
      "odds": 2.78,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.377, model EV=+4.7%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "kimi",
      "fixture_id": "replay-7e3249da2740f056",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.0163707,
      "odds": 1.54,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.639, model EV=-1.6%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "glm-flash",
      "fixture_id": "replay-7e3249da2740f056",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.05857488,
      "odds": 2.35,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.401, model EV=-5.9%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "mimo",
      "fixture_id": "replay-7e3249da2740f056",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": 0.01214515,
      "odds": 2.78,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.364, model EV=+1.2%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "qwen",
      "fixture_id": "replay-7e3249da2740f056",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.06155348,
      "odds": 2.31,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.406, model EV=-6.2%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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  "fingerprint": "sha256:67ff202af0695ece4234dc6c4bb9806425711ea047f54802fabc01a438139bcb",
  "fixtures": [
    {
      "away": "Fiorentina",
      "competition": "Serie A",
      "forecasts": {
        "claude": {
          "away": 0.41509191546380986,
          "draw": 0.25649344063563595,
          "home": 0.32841464390055414,
          "over25": 0.6990194475319176,
          "under25": 0.3009805524680824
        },
        "codex": {
          "away": 0.4101120032853107,
          "draw": 0.26143559194760835,
          "home": 0.32845240476708093,
          "over25": 0.6047669427280494,
          "under25": 0.39523305727195057
        },
        "gemini": {
          "away": 0.377985162602417,
          "draw": 0.24541002932623454,
          "home": 0.3766048080713485,
          "over25": 0.6309797084951999,
          "under25": 0.3690202915048001
        },
        "glm-flash": {
          "away": 0.4060065087095525,
          "draw": 0.2585593567485905,
          "home": 0.33543413454185705,
          "over25": 0.5993935670424096,
          "under25": 0.40060643295759035
        },
        "kimi": {
          "away": 0.42145455006797927,
          "draw": 0.25101260626939204,
          "home": 0.3275328436626287,
          "over25": 0.6387203233829986,
          "under25": 0.36127967661700144
        },
        "market": {
          "away": 0.4053015241882041,
          "draw": 0.2579191517561299,
          "home": 0.336779324055666,
          "over25": 0.6041131105398457,
          "under25": 0.39588688946015427
        },
        "mimo": {
          "away": 0.38779332919672127,
          "draw": 0.248125683268023,
          "home": 0.3640809875352557,
          "over25": 0.5876406961880477,
          "under25": 0.4123593038119523
        },
        "poisson": {
          "away": 0.36610905,
          "draw": 0.23786359,
          "home": 0.39602736,
          "over25": 0.60131939,
          "under25": 0.39868061
        },
        "qwen": {
          "away": 0.406253905140585,
          "draw": 0.2579191517561299,
          "home": 0.3358269431032851,
          "over25": 0.6041131105398457,
          "under25": 0.39588688946015427
        }
      },
      "home": "Sassuolo",
      "id": "replay-7e3249da2740f056",
      "kickoff": "2026-11-02T17:30:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 2.31,
        "draw": 3.63,
        "home": 2.78,
        "over25": 1.54,
        "under25": 2.35
      },
      "score": null
    }
  ],
  "id": "daily-2026-11-01",
  "kickoff_window": "Next 24 hours",
  "label": "Daily slate \u00b7 2 November",
  "lock_at": "2026-11-02T17:30:00Z",
  "note": "Tips and stakes were published before the first kickoff and are now sealed for settlement.",
  "policy": {
    "bet_policy": {
      "evidence_status": "required-paper-picks-not-a-positive-value-claim",
      "flat_stake_units": 1.0,
      "longshot_decimal_odds": 5.0,
      "longshot_flat_stake_units": 5.0,
      "market_similarity_is_failure": false,
      "maximum_bets_per_fixture": 1,
      "maximum_bets_per_round": 3,
      "maximum_decimal_odds": 3.0,
      "maximum_longshot_bets": 1,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_fraction": 0.005,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_units": 5.0,
      "maximum_market_probability_gap": 0.15,
      "maximum_round_stake_fraction": 0.05,
      "maximum_round_stake_units": 3.0,
      "maximum_single_stake_fraction": 0.01,
      "maximum_total_open_exposure_fraction": 0.15,
      "minimum_point_ev": -1.0,
      "selection_mode": "required-ranked-paper",
      "stake_assignment": "commissioner-flat-capped",
      "starting_bankroll_units": 1000.0,
      "unsupported_without_evidence_decimal_odds": 8.0
    },
    "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "rubric_sha256": "7ef0538587aff0e3fee1741d26f53b9190b864412103d833aa4abcaf19ae761e",
    "rubric_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "validator_version": "2"
  },
  "published_at": "2026-11-01T18:05:38.628521Z",
  "snapshot_id": "sha256:6b42a59e374c6dcdabe250ab915aa244ceef2288fad4424a41334896ccef24b8",
  "status": "sealed",
  "submission_meta": {
    "claude": {
      "decision_time": "2026-11-01T18:05:09.725932Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 3,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-11-01T18:05:30.407493Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "codex": {
      "decision_time": "2026-11-01T18:05:09.725932Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 3,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-11-01T18:05:30.406473Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "gemini": {
      "decision_time": "2026-11-01T18:05:09.725932Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 3,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-11-01T18:05:32.105074Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "glm-flash": {
      "decision_time": "2026-11-01T18:05:09.725932Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 3,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-11-01T18:05:30.407988Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "kimi": {
      "decision_time": "2026-11-01T18:05:09.725932Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 3,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-11-01T18:05:30.408285Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "mimo": {
      "decision_time": "2026-11-01T18:05:09.725932Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 3,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-11-01T18:05:38.626114Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "qwen": {
      "decision_time": "2026-11-01T18:05:09.725932Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 3,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 1
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-11-01T18:05:30.400791Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    }
  }
}