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          "over25": 0.6548261389259252,
          "under25": 0.3451738610740748
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        "codex": {
          "away": 0.35672073669881776,
          "draw": 0.25881274747585203,
          "home": 0.3844665158253302,
          "over25": 0.573896000636914,
          "under25": 0.42610399936308596
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        "gemini": {
          "away": 0.32763621216046956,
          "draw": 0.246611001662835,
          "home": 0.42575278617669543,
          "over25": 0.630725345325326,
          "under25": 0.369274654674674
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        "glm-flash": {
          "away": 0.33771500508066976,
          "draw": 0.26840766495318935,
          "home": 0.39387732996614094,
          "over25": 0.5652115699015323,
          "under25": 0.4347884300984677
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        "kimi": {
          "away": 0.3380482567854985,
          "draw": 0.26278031168081245,
          "home": 0.39917143153368906,
          "over25": 0.5960686183598601,
          "under25": 0.40393138164013986
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        "market": {
          "away": 0.3391565782089313,
          "draw": 0.26634330153130764,
          "home": 0.39450012025976106,
          "over25": 0.5732984293193717,
          "under25": 0.4267015706806283
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        "mimo": {
          "away": 0.34312730827055243,
          "draw": 0.25715080864365264,
          "home": 0.3997218830857949,
          "over25": 0.5520576181712007,
          "under25": 0.4479423818287993
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        "poisson": {
          "away": 0.28948955,
          "draw": 0.29200129,
          "home": 0.41850917,
          "over25": 0.36436889,
          "under25": 0.63563111
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        "qwen": {
          "away": 0.33915657820893125,
          "draw": 0.26634330153130764,
          "home": 0.39450012025976106,
          "over25": 0.5732984293193717,
          "under25": 0.4267015706806283
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      },
      "home": "Malaga",
      "id": "replay-daf2897fcafb6659",
      "kickoff": "2026-11-07T13:00:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 2.78,
        "draw": 3.54,
        "home": 2.39,
        "over25": 1.63,
        "under25": 2.19
      },
      "score": null
    }
  ],
  "id": "daily-2026-11-06-r2",
  "kickoff_window": "Next 24 hours",
  "label": "Daily slate \u00b7 7 November",
  "lock_at": "2026-11-07T12:30:00Z",
  "note": "Tips and stakes were published before the first kickoff and are now sealed for settlement.",
  "policy": {
    "bet_policy": {
      "evidence_status": "required-paper-picks-not-a-positive-value-claim",
      "flat_stake_units": 1.0,
      "longshot_decimal_odds": 5.0,
      "longshot_flat_stake_units": 5.0,
      "market_similarity_is_failure": false,
      "maximum_bets_per_fixture": 1,
      "maximum_bets_per_round": 3,
      "maximum_decimal_odds": 3.0,
      "maximum_longshot_bets": 1,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_fraction": 0.005,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_units": 5.0,
      "maximum_market_probability_gap": 0.15,
      "maximum_round_stake_fraction": 0.05,
      "maximum_round_stake_units": 3.0,
      "maximum_single_stake_fraction": 0.01,
      "maximum_total_open_exposure_fraction": 0.15,
      "minimum_point_ev": -1.0,
      "selection_mode": "required-ranked-paper",
      "stake_assignment": "commissioner-flat-capped",
      "starting_bankroll_units": 1000.0,
      "unsupported_without_evidence_decimal_odds": 8.0
    },
    "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "rubric_sha256": "7ef0538587aff0e3fee1741d26f53b9190b864412103d833aa4abcaf19ae761e",
    "rubric_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "validator_version": "2"
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  "published_at": "2026-11-06T13:05:27.026344Z",
  "snapshot_id": "sha256:01e4e0fee97d68d436820e71ac4d0d703d1ea1f5d4f76022d0311c8be41134c5",
  "status": "sealed",
  "submission_meta": {
    "claude": {
      "decision_time": "2026-11-06T13:05:09.894308Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 7,
            "round-bet-count-cap": 15
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 25,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
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      "generated_at": "2026-11-06T13:05:19.166891Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "codex": {
      "decision_time": "2026-11-06T13:05:09.894308Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
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          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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          "validation_status": "failed"
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
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            "round-bet-count-cap": 15
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 25,
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        "commissioner_fallback": {
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          "status": "accepted",
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      "generated_at": "2026-11-06T13:05:19.164183Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "gemini": {
      "decision_time": "2026-11-06T13:05:09.894308Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
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        "adapter": {
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          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "bet 1 outside-paper-price-band"
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          "validation_status": "failed"
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 1,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 7,
            "round-bet-count-cap": 14
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
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        "commissioner_fallback": {
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          "status": "accepted",
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      "generated_at": "2026-11-06T13:05:20.873230Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "glm-flash": {
      "decision_time": "2026-11-06T13:05:09.894308Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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          "validation_status": "failed"
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 7,
            "round-bet-count-cap": 15
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 25,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
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      "generated_at": "2026-11-06T13:05:19.171843Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "kimi": {
      "decision_time": "2026-11-06T13:05:09.894308Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 7,
            "round-bet-count-cap": 15
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 25,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
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      },
      "generated_at": "2026-11-06T13:05:19.174075Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "mimo": {
      "decision_time": "2026-11-06T13:05:09.894308Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 7,
            "round-bet-count-cap": 15
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 25,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
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      "generated_at": "2026-11-06T13:05:27.023914Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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    "qwen": {
      "decision_time": "2026-11-06T13:05:09.894308Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
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          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 7,
            "round-bet-count-cap": 15
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 25,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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        "commissioner_fallback": {
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          "status": "accepted",
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      },
      "generated_at": "2026-11-06T13:05:19.167475Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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  }
}