{
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      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.589, model EV=+6.0%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
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      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.530, model EV=-4.6%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
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      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.391, model EV=-5.7%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
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      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.461, model EV=+11.2%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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      "bot_id": "gemini",
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      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.548, model EV=-1.3%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
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      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.528, model EV=-1.4%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
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      "bot_id": "glm-flash",
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      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.394, model EV=-5.1%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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      "bot_id": "glm-flash",
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      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.05708235,
      "odds": 1.8,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.524, model EV=-5.7%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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      "bot_id": "mimo",
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      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.00789581,
      "odds": 2.42,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.410, model EV=-0.8%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "mimo",
      "fixture_id": "replay-4f3871cbd6a88bc0",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.06305311,
      "odds": 1.87,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.501, model EV=-6.3%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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      "bot_id": "qwen",
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      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": 0.03861888,
      "odds": 2.41,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.431, model EV=+3.9%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "AWAY",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "qwen",
      "fixture_id": "replay-4f3871cbd6a88bc0",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.02223846,
      "odds": 1.8,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.543, model EV=-2.2%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
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          "away": 0.3939471987877783,
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          "away": 0.4193475252004373,
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          "home": 0.3327916648022748,
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        "market": {
          "away": 0.3914383807164422,
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          "home": 0.34939499908393545,
          "over25": 0.6126582278481012,
          "under25": 0.38734177215189874
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        "mimo": {
          "away": 0.3910529624177549,
          "draw": 0.25027218350005176,
          "home": 0.3586748540821933,
          "over25": 0.5900395900430633,
          "under25": 0.4099604099569367
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          "away": 0.42932576,
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          "under25": 0.54340607
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          "away": 0.4309621902402516,
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          "home": 0.30987118956012594,
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          "under25": 0.3873417721518988
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      },
      "home": "Cagliari",
      "id": "replay-e8cb606b962c4f04",
      "kickoff": "2026-11-07T14:00:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 2.41,
        "draw": 3.64,
        "home": 2.7,
        "over25": 1.53,
        "under25": 2.42
      },
      "score": null
    },
    {
      "away": "Lecce",
      "competition": "Serie A",
      "forecasts": {
        "claude": {
          "away": 0.1717845529270635,
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          "home": 0.5891261893274913,
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          "away": 0.21564458182212537,
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          "home": 0.5297818727725329,
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          "away": 0.20309117901113016,
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          "under25": 0.4906038152302885
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        "glm-flash": {
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          "over25": 0.49590850547108695,
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        "kimi": {
          "away": 0.21245792528802837,
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          "home": 0.5313397954555045,
          "over25": 0.527531160512336,
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        "market": {
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          "over25": 0.5,
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        },
        "mimo": {
          "away": 0.24066611365783797,
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          "home": 0.5071239152707203,
          "over25": 0.49895888432768637,
          "under25": 0.5010411156723136
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        "poisson": {
          "away": 0.33742824,
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          "over25": 0.36025099,
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          "away": 0.1956859355231868,
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          "under25": 0.5
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      },
      "home": "Torino",
      "id": "replay-4f3871cbd6a88bc0",
      "kickoff": "2026-11-07T14:00:00Z",
      "odds": {
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        "over25": 1.87,
        "under25": 1.87
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  ],
  "id": "daily-2026-11-06-r3",
  "kickoff_window": "Next 24 hours",
  "label": "Daily slate \u00b7 7 November",
  "lock_at": "2026-11-07T14:00:00Z",
  "note": "Tips and stakes were published before the first kickoff and are now sealed for settlement.",
  "policy": {
    "bet_policy": {
      "evidence_status": "required-paper-picks-not-a-positive-value-claim",
      "flat_stake_units": 1.0,
      "longshot_decimal_odds": 5.0,
      "longshot_flat_stake_units": 5.0,
      "market_similarity_is_failure": false,
      "maximum_bets_per_fixture": 1,
      "maximum_bets_per_round": 3,
      "maximum_decimal_odds": 3.0,
      "maximum_longshot_bets": 1,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_fraction": 0.005,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_units": 5.0,
      "maximum_market_probability_gap": 0.15,
      "maximum_round_stake_fraction": 0.05,
      "maximum_round_stake_units": 3.0,
      "maximum_single_stake_fraction": 0.01,
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      "selection_mode": "required-ranked-paper",
      "stake_assignment": "commissioner-flat-capped",
      "starting_bankroll_units": 1000.0,
      "unsupported_without_evidence_decimal_odds": 8.0
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    "rubric_sha256": "7ef0538587aff0e3fee1741d26f53b9190b864412103d833aa4abcaf19ae761e",
    "rubric_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
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  "published_at": "2026-11-06T14:05:26.091726Z",
  "snapshot_id": "sha256:e518b49f712082c06548e3392408a5f6086442d6de21ddd7b037c6cfa21d4adf",
  "status": "sealed",
  "submission_meta": {
    "claude": {
      "decision_time": "2026-11-06T14:05:08.912056Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
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          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
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        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
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          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
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          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
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      "generated_at": "2026-11-06T14:05:18.178950Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "codex": {
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      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
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          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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          "validation_status": "failed"
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
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        "commissioner_fallback": {
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          "status": "accepted",
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      "generated_at": "2026-11-06T14:05:18.173801Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "gemini": {
      "decision_time": "2026-11-06T14:05:08.912056Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
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          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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          "status": "accepted",
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      "generated_at": "2026-11-06T14:05:19.862652Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "glm-flash": {
      "decision_time": "2026-11-06T14:05:08.912056Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
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          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
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          "dropped_by_reason": {
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          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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      "generated_at": "2026-11-06T14:05:18.173739Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "kimi": {
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      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
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          "validation_errors": [
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          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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      "generated_at": "2026-11-06T14:05:18.176440Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "mimo": {
      "decision_time": "2026-11-06T14:05:08.912056Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
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        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-11-06T14:05:26.089512Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "qwen": {
      "decision_time": "2026-11-06T14:05:08.912056Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 5,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 3
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 2,
          "official_stake": 2.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 10,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-11-06T14:05:18.172044Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    }
  }
}