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        "kimi": {
          "away": 0.6232283306751761,
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        "market": {
          "away": 0.6073645102568743,
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        "mimo": {
          "away": 0.5424542677334507,
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          "away": 0.4076504,
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          "away": 0.6468883197806837,
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      "home": "Watford",
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      "kickoff": "2026-11-07T15:00:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 1.54,
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        "home": 5.14,
        "over25": 1.46,
        "under25": 2.6
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      "score": null
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    {
      "away": "Millwall",
      "competition": "Championship",
      "forecasts": {
        "claude": {
          "away": 0.23714882798324938,
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          "home": 0.5063535784476474,
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          "away": 0.2641421848886408,
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          "home": 0.47086958757492775,
          "over25": 0.5240913507239906,
          "under25": 0.4759086492760094
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          "away": 0.2756231153447286,
          "draw": 0.26461138337407597,
          "home": 0.45976550128119537,
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        "glm-flash": {
          "away": 0.2666078368727053,
          "draw": 0.27028559158785903,
          "home": 0.4631065715394357,
          "over25": 0.5154987667843576,
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        "kimi": {
          "away": 0.26787127588152254,
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          "home": 0.4675752802459368,
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          "under25": 0.4716189611959818
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        "market": {
          "away": 0.2663115845539281,
          "draw": 0.2663115845539281,
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          "over25": 0.5240641711229947,
          "under25": 0.47593582887700536
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        "mimo": {
          "away": 0.27535159092353356,
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        "poisson": {
          "away": 0.27857322,
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          "over25": 0.34571285,
          "under25": 0.65428715
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        "qwen": {
          "away": 0.25107348931583284,
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          "home": 0.4826149261302391,
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          "under25": 0.47593582887700525
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      },
      "home": "West Brom",
      "id": "replay-e4dacfc28fbcf6a6",
      "kickoff": "2026-11-07T15:00:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 3.51,
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        "home": 2.0,
        "over25": 1.78,
        "under25": 1.96
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      "score": null
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  ],
  "id": "daily-2026-11-06-r4",
  "kickoff_window": "Next 24 hours",
  "label": "Daily slate \u00b7 7 November",
  "lock_at": "2026-11-07T14:30:00Z",
  "note": "Tips and stakes were published before the first kickoff and are now sealed for settlement.",
  "policy": {
    "bet_policy": {
      "evidence_status": "required-paper-picks-not-a-positive-value-claim",
      "flat_stake_units": 1.0,
      "longshot_decimal_odds": 5.0,
      "longshot_flat_stake_units": 5.0,
      "market_similarity_is_failure": false,
      "maximum_bets_per_fixture": 1,
      "maximum_bets_per_round": 3,
      "maximum_decimal_odds": 3.0,
      "maximum_longshot_bets": 1,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_fraction": 0.005,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_units": 5.0,
      "maximum_market_probability_gap": 0.15,
      "maximum_round_stake_fraction": 0.05,
      "maximum_round_stake_units": 3.0,
      "maximum_single_stake_fraction": 0.01,
      "maximum_total_open_exposure_fraction": 0.15,
      "minimum_point_ev": -1.0,
      "selection_mode": "required-ranked-paper",
      "stake_assignment": "commissioner-flat-capped",
      "starting_bankroll_units": 1000.0,
      "unsupported_without_evidence_decimal_odds": 8.0
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    "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "rubric_sha256": "7ef0538587aff0e3fee1741d26f53b9190b864412103d833aa4abcaf19ae761e",
    "rubric_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "validator_version": "2"
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  "published_at": "2026-11-06T15:06:00.366204Z",
  "snapshot_id": "sha256:e489e8899c6598f1e8737b022e6b1515b58618e04fc35b1d9f6b68826dd138cc",
  "status": "sealed",
  "submission_meta": {
    "claude": {
      "decision_time": "2026-11-06T15:05:43.570174Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
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          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
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          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 28,
            "round-bet-count-cap": 37,
            "unsupported-extreme-price": 2
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 70,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
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      "generated_at": "2026-11-06T15:05:52.515767Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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    "codex": {
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      "execution_provenance": {
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        "adapter": {
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          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
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            "round-bet-count-cap": 37,
            "unsupported-extreme-price": 2
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
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        "commissioner_fallback": {
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          "status": "accepted",
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      "generated_at": "2026-11-06T15:05:52.522239Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "gemini": {
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          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "bet 2 outside-paper-price-band"
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
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          "adjusted": true,
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        "commissioner_fallback": {
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          "status": "accepted",
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      "generated_at": "2026-11-06T15:05:54.185977Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "glm-flash": {
      "decision_time": "2026-11-06T15:05:43.570174Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
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        "adapter": {
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          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
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          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
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            "round-bet-count-cap": 37,
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
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          "requested_bets": 70,
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        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
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      "generated_at": "2026-11-06T15:05:52.514376Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "kimi": {
      "decision_time": "2026-11-06T15:05:43.570174Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 28,
            "round-bet-count-cap": 37,
            "unsupported-extreme-price": 2
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 70,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
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      "generated_at": "2026-11-06T15:05:52.524294Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "mimo": {
      "decision_time": "2026-11-06T15:05:43.570174Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
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          "adjusted": true,
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          "dropped_by_reason": {
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            "round-bet-count-cap": 37,
            "unsupported-extreme-price": 2
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
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          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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        "commissioner_fallback": {
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          "status": "accepted",
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      "generated_at": "2026-11-06T15:06:00.363181Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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    "qwen": {
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      "execution_provenance": {
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        "adapter": {
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          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
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          "dropped_by_reason": {
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            "round-bet-count-cap": 37,
            "unsupported-extreme-price": 2
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          "requested_bets": 70,
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        "commissioner_fallback": {
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          "status": "accepted",
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      "generated_at": "2026-11-06T15:05:52.501245Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    }
  }
}
