{
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      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.488, model EV=-2.9%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
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      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
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      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.666, model EV=-5.4%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
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      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.511, model EV=+1.7%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
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      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
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      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.503, model EV=-5.9%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
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      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.505, model EV=-5.5%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "OVER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
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      "odds": 1.85,
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      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.510, model EV=-5.6%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
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      "stake": 1.0
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      "bot_id": "glm-flash",
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      "odds": 1.99,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.474, model EV=-5.6%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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      "market": "OU25",
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      "odds": 1.99,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.480, model EV=-4.4%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "mimo",
      "fixture_id": "replay-700ca9b8f0bc9cfd",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.06556965,
      "odds": 1.85,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.505, model EV=-6.6%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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      "market": "1X2",
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      "odds": 1.86,
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      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.522, model EV=-2.9%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "qwen",
      "fixture_id": "replay-33050a4fd1960deb",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.03252859,
      "odds": 1.42,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.681, model EV=-3.3%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
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          "away": 0.25089175739479563,
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          "home": 0.4952346447650951,
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          "under25": 0.5050974864332058
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      "home": "Celta",
      "id": "replay-700ca9b8f0bc9cfd",
      "kickoff": "2026-11-08T17:30:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 4.02,
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        "home": 1.86,
        "over25": 1.87,
        "under25": 1.85
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    {
      "away": "Getafe",
      "competition": "La Liga",
      "forecasts": {
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          "away": 0.11765213576332986,
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          "home": 0.681454168813841,
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          "home": 0.6570321811680572,
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          "away": 0.16102234799001328,
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        "poisson": {
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      },
      "home": "Villarreal",
      "id": "replay-33050a4fd1960deb",
      "kickoff": "2026-11-08T17:30:00Z",
      "odds": {
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  "id": "daily-2026-11-07-r7",
  "kickoff_window": "Next 24 hours",
  "label": "Daily slate \u00b7 8 November",
  "lock_at": "2026-11-08T17:30:00Z",
  "note": "Tips and stakes were published before the first kickoff and are now sealed for settlement.",
  "policy": {
    "bet_policy": {
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      "flat_stake_units": 1.0,
      "longshot_decimal_odds": 5.0,
      "longshot_flat_stake_units": 5.0,
      "market_similarity_is_failure": false,
      "maximum_bets_per_fixture": 1,
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      "maximum_longshot_bets": 1,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_fraction": 0.005,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_units": 5.0,
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      "maximum_round_stake_fraction": 0.05,
      "maximum_round_stake_units": 3.0,
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      "selection_mode": "required-ranked-paper",
      "stake_assignment": "commissioner-flat-capped",
      "starting_bankroll_units": 1000.0,
      "unsupported_without_evidence_decimal_odds": 8.0
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    "rubric_sha256": "7ef0538587aff0e3fee1741d26f53b9190b864412103d833aa4abcaf19ae761e",
    "rubric_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
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  "snapshot_id": "sha256:cd272d837a1912e212a04f8d51221e24a39a10fa375ca8fe3b371a54f014a6af",
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          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
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          "dropped_by_reason": {
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          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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        "commissioner_fallback": {
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          "status": "accepted",
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      "generated_at": "2026-11-07T18:05:30.902375Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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          "validation_errors": [
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
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        "commissioner_fallback": {
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      "generated_at": "2026-11-07T18:05:30.901095Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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    "gemini": {
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          "validation_errors": [
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      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
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      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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    "kimi": {
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      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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    "mimo": {
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        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-11-07T18:05:38.752445Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "qwen": {
      "decision_time": "2026-11-07T18:05:10.295507Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 4,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 4
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 2,
          "official_stake": 2.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 10,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-11-07T18:05:30.896180Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    }
  }
}