{
  "available_bankrolls": {
    "claude": 973.54,
    "codex": 975.45,
    "gemini": 1008.6541,
    "glm-flash": 957.09,
    "kimi": 989.25,
    "mimo": 952.05,
    "qwen": 970.95
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  "bets": [
    {
      "bot_id": "claude",
      "fixture_id": "replay-901cd9210c02cf73",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.0051018,
      "odds": 1.59,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.626, model EV=-0.5%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "codex",
      "fixture_id": "replay-901cd9210c02cf73",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.06026541,
      "odds": 2.59,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.363, model EV=-6.0%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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      "bot_id": "gemini",
      "fixture_id": "replay-901cd9210c02cf73",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.04249832,
      "odds": 2.59,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.370, model EV=-4.2%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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    {
      "bot_id": "kimi",
      "fixture_id": "replay-901cd9210c02cf73",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": 0.00748906,
      "odds": 2.59,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.389, model EV=+0.7%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "glm-flash",
      "fixture_id": "replay-901cd9210c02cf73",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.0316203,
      "odds": 2.59,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.374, model EV=-3.2%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "mimo",
      "fixture_id": "replay-901cd9210c02cf73",
      "market": "OU25",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.0232594,
      "odds": 2.59,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.377, model EV=-2.3%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "UNDER25",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
    },
    {
      "bot_id": "qwen",
      "fixture_id": "replay-901cd9210c02cf73",
      "market": "1X2",
      "model_ev_at_acceptance": -0.0377328,
      "odds": 1.59,
      "pnl": null,
      "reason": "Required paper pick ranked by forecast return: p=0.605, model EV=-3.8%. Commissioner selection from this bot's forecast; not a claim of positive betting value.",
      "result": "pending",
      "selection": "HOME",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper",
      "sources": [],
      "stake": 1.0
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  "fingerprint": "sha256:d212ad0af20441a9c528b6a92e7f88fb5e5f85a57c4ddcf340a2fceda4a9483c",
  "fixtures": [
    {
      "away": "Schalke 04",
      "competition": "Bundesliga",
      "forecasts": {
        "claude": {
          "away": 0.1700113001680557,
          "draw": 0.20426656265398574,
          "home": 0.6257221371779585,
          "over25": 0.6309735153859078,
          "under25": 0.36902648461409215
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        "codex": {
          "away": 0.19035996677975686,
          "draw": 0.22145645022923477,
          "home": 0.5881835829910084,
          "over25": 0.6371681105241652,
          "under25": 0.3628318894758348
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        "gemini": {
          "away": 0.2315737394214495,
          "draw": 0.22126469192631265,
          "home": 0.5471615686522379,
          "over25": 0.6303082302844831,
          "under25": 0.36969176971551687
        },
        "glm-flash": {
          "away": 0.19760373781313692,
          "draw": 0.22155609080727331,
          "home": 0.5808401713795898,
          "over25": 0.6261082245454879,
          "under25": 0.37389177545451213
        },
        "kimi": {
          "away": 0.20007232628160476,
          "draw": 0.22006351753944076,
          "home": 0.5798641561789545,
          "over25": 0.6110080840483469,
          "under25": 0.38899191595165306
        },
        "market": {
          "away": 0.19470360493100944,
          "draw": 0.21628737637832687,
          "home": 0.5890090186906637,
          "over25": 0.6379310344827586,
          "under25": 0.3620689655172414
        },
        "mimo": {
          "away": 0.21034415222665667,
          "draw": 0.21256988554503822,
          "home": 0.5770859622283051,
          "over25": 0.6228800778960275,
          "under25": 0.3771199221039725
        },
        "poisson": {
          "away": 0.28609853,
          "draw": 0.2067479,
          "home": 0.50715357,
          "over25": 0.72350025,
          "under25": 0.27649975
        },
        "qwen": {
          "away": 0.17851312874053324,
          "draw": 0.21628737637832687,
          "home": 0.6051994948811399,
          "over25": 0.6379310344827586,
          "under25": 0.36206896551724144
        }
      },
      "home": "Hoffenheim",
      "id": "replay-901cd9210c02cf73",
      "kickoff": "2026-11-08T18:30:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 4.81,
        "draw": 4.33,
        "home": 1.59,
        "over25": 1.47,
        "under25": 2.59
      },
      "score": null
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  ],
  "id": "daily-2026-11-07-r8",
  "kickoff_window": "Next 24 hours",
  "label": "Daily slate \u00b7 8 November",
  "lock_at": "2026-11-08T18:30:00Z",
  "note": "Tips and stakes were published before the first kickoff and are now sealed for settlement.",
  "policy": {
    "bet_policy": {
      "evidence_status": "required-paper-picks-not-a-positive-value-claim",
      "flat_stake_units": 1.0,
      "longshot_decimal_odds": 5.0,
      "longshot_flat_stake_units": 5.0,
      "market_similarity_is_failure": false,
      "maximum_bets_per_fixture": 1,
      "maximum_bets_per_round": 3,
      "maximum_decimal_odds": 3.0,
      "maximum_longshot_bets": 1,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_fraction": 0.005,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_units": 5.0,
      "maximum_market_probability_gap": 0.15,
      "maximum_round_stake_fraction": 0.05,
      "maximum_round_stake_units": 3.0,
      "maximum_single_stake_fraction": 0.01,
      "maximum_total_open_exposure_fraction": 0.15,
      "minimum_point_ev": -1.0,
      "selection_mode": "required-ranked-paper",
      "stake_assignment": "commissioner-flat-capped",
      "starting_bankroll_units": 1000.0,
      "unsupported_without_evidence_decimal_odds": 8.0
    },
    "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "rubric_sha256": "7ef0538587aff0e3fee1741d26f53b9190b864412103d833aa4abcaf19ae761e",
    "rubric_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "validator_version": "2"
  },
  "published_at": "2026-11-07T19:05:37.038699Z",
  "snapshot_id": "sha256:fbccf358c1e9748e01b3f2a13f2f79cdf950783059395be85cfa5b1652811529",
  "status": "sealed",
  "submission_meta": {
    "claude": {
      "decision_time": "2026-11-07T19:05:10.001144Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-11-07T19:05:29.184116Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "codex": {
      "decision_time": "2026-11-07T19:05:10.001144Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-11-07T19:05:29.183330Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "gemini": {
      "decision_time": "2026-11-07T19:05:10.001144Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "bet 0 outside-paper-price-band"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-11-07T19:05:30.864246Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "glm-flash": {
      "decision_time": "2026-11-07T19:05:10.001144Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-11-07T19:05:29.177615Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "kimi": {
      "decision_time": "2026-11-07T19:05:10.001144Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-11-07T19:05:29.187591Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "mimo": {
      "decision_time": "2026-11-07T19:05:10.001144Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-11-07T19:05:37.035202Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "qwen": {
      "decision_time": "2026-11-07T19:05:10.001144Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 2,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 2
          },
          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 1,
          "official_stake": 1.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 5,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
        }
      },
      "generated_at": "2026-11-07T19:05:29.166352Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    }
  }
}