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        "kimi": {
          "away": 0.3532485987038107,
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          "home": 0.36585156684074477,
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        "market": {
          "away": 0.3508709562744401,
          "draw": 0.28154994667614647,
          "home": 0.36757909704941344,
          "over25": 0.489247311827957,
          "under25": 0.510752688172043
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        "mimo": {
          "away": 0.34592740283332934,
          "draw": 0.27119340707128914,
          "home": 0.3828791900953815,
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          "away": 0.41224877,
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          "away": 0.342775718179202,
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      "home": "Shrewsbury",
      "id": "replay-f366702e412c12b7",
      "kickoff": "2026-11-14T15:00:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 2.64,
        "draw": 3.29,
        "home": 2.52,
        "over25": 1.9,
        "under25": 1.82
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      "score": null
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    {
      "away": "Grimsby",
      "competition": "League Two",
      "forecasts": {
        "claude": {
          "away": 0.45041913329914435,
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          "home": 0.29675720639684616,
          "over25": 0.6009174284665822,
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        "codex": {
          "away": 0.4598947779887782,
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          "home": 0.2800513990976706,
          "over25": 0.5897293889276147,
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        "gemini": {
          "away": 0.4544584690122329,
          "draw": 0.25147935270141014,
          "home": 0.29406217828635695,
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        "glm-flash": {
          "away": 0.45602573324322915,
          "draw": 0.25612535998799135,
          "home": 0.28784890676877956,
          "over25": 0.5826003901632596,
          "under25": 0.4173996098367404
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        "kimi": {
          "away": 0.45808907572030266,
          "draw": 0.2529770670327902,
          "home": 0.28893385724690707,
          "over25": 0.5806881365207125,
          "under25": 0.4193118634792875
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        "market": {
          "away": 0.459192079331033,
          "draw": 0.25274332431844326,
          "home": 0.2880645963505238,
          "over25": 0.5900783289817232,
          "under25": 0.40992167101827676
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        "mimo": {
          "away": 0.42768209359773823,
          "draw": 0.24542670123167606,
          "home": 0.3268912051705856,
          "over25": 0.5706152061093842,
          "under25": 0.4293847938906158
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        "poisson": {
          "away": 0.3206652,
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          "home": 0.42393807,
          "over25": 0.51036094,
          "under25": 0.48963906
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        "qwen": {
          "away": 0.4615730317119854,
          "draw": 0.25274332431844326,
          "home": 0.2856836439695714,
          "over25": 0.5900783289817232,
          "under25": 0.4099216710182768
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      },
      "home": "Swindon",
      "id": "replay-a45ca244c2317e99",
      "kickoff": "2026-11-14T15:00:00Z",
      "odds": {
        "away": 2.02,
        "draw": 3.67,
        "home": 3.22,
        "over25": 1.57,
        "under25": 2.26
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      "score": null
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  ],
  "id": "daily-2026-11-13",
  "kickoff_window": "Next 24 hours",
  "label": "Daily slate \u00b7 14 November",
  "lock_at": "2026-11-14T12:30:00Z",
  "note": "Tips and stakes were published before the first kickoff and are now sealed for settlement.",
  "policy": {
    "bet_policy": {
      "evidence_status": "required-paper-picks-not-a-positive-value-claim",
      "flat_stake_units": 1.0,
      "longshot_decimal_odds": 5.0,
      "longshot_flat_stake_units": 5.0,
      "market_similarity_is_failure": false,
      "maximum_bets_per_fixture": 1,
      "maximum_bets_per_round": 3,
      "maximum_decimal_odds": 3.0,
      "maximum_longshot_bets": 1,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_fraction": 0.005,
      "maximum_longshot_stake_units": 5.0,
      "maximum_market_probability_gap": 0.15,
      "maximum_round_stake_fraction": 0.05,
      "maximum_round_stake_units": 3.0,
      "maximum_single_stake_fraction": 0.01,
      "maximum_total_open_exposure_fraction": 0.15,
      "minimum_point_ev": -1.0,
      "selection_mode": "required-ranked-paper",
      "stake_assignment": "commissioner-flat-capped",
      "starting_bankroll_units": 1000.0,
      "unsupported_without_evidence_decimal_odds": 8.0
    },
    "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "rubric_sha256": "7ef0538587aff0e3fee1741d26f53b9190b864412103d833aa4abcaf19ae761e",
    "rubric_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
    "validator_version": "2"
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  "published_at": "2026-11-13T15:05:28.155317Z",
  "snapshot_id": "sha256:48a2c20ea82fd6cec6a7d43568f614eb4e48705c8c4d8587d4ee9fd2cf14f93c",
  "status": "sealed",
  "submission_meta": {
    "claude": {
      "decision_time": "2026-11-13T15:05:10.421507Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
          "validation_status": "failed"
        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 23,
            "round-bet-count-cap": 44
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 70,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
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      "generated_at": "2026-11-13T15:05:19.462125Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "codex": {
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      "execution_provenance": {
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        "adapter": {
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          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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          "validation_status": "failed"
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
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          "adjusted": true,
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          "dropped_by_reason": {
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            "round-bet-count-cap": 44
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
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          "requested_bets": 70,
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        "commissioner_fallback": {
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          "status": "accepted",
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      "generated_at": "2026-11-13T15:05:19.462279Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "gemini": {
      "decision_time": "2026-11-13T15:05:10.421507Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
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        "adapter": {
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          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
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          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
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            "round-bet-count-cap": 44
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
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          "official_stake": 3.0,
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          "requested_bets": 70,
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        "commissioner_fallback": {
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          "status": "accepted",
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      "generated_at": "2026-11-13T15:05:21.378523Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "glm-flash": {
      "decision_time": "2026-11-13T15:05:10.421507Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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          "validation_status": "failed"
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
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            "round-bet-count-cap": 44
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
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          "requested_bets": 70,
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        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
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      },
      "generated_at": "2026-11-13T15:05:19.469268Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "kimi": {
      "decision_time": "2026-11-13T15:05:10.421507Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
          ],
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        },
        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "fixture-bet-count-cap": 1,
            "outside-paper-price-band": 23,
            "round-bet-count-cap": 43
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 70,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
        },
        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
          "validation_status": "live"
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      },
      "generated_at": "2026-11-13T15:05:19.467913Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "mimo": {
      "decision_time": "2026-11-13T15:05:10.421507Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
          "adapter_requested_bets": 0,
          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 23,
            "round-bet-count-cap": 44
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 70,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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        "commissioner_fallback": {
          "bets_preserved": false,
          "status": "accepted",
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      "generated_at": "2026-11-13T15:05:28.151772Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
    },
    "qwen": {
      "decision_time": "2026-11-13T15:05:10.421507Z",
      "execution_provenance": {
        "accepted_via": "commissioner-predict-contract",
        "adapter": {
          "exit_code": 0,
          "status": "invalid",
          "timed_out": false,
          "valid": false,
          "validation_errors": [
            "required paper tips must match the ranked forecast selections and stakes"
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        "bet_policy_adjustment": {
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          "adjusted": true,
          "applied": true,
          "dropped_by_reason": {
            "outside-paper-price-band": 23,
            "round-bet-count-cap": 44
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          "longshot_bets": 0,
          "official_bets": 3,
          "official_stake": 3.0,
          "policy_version": "ranked-paper-v3",
          "requested_bets": 70,
          "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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        "commissioner_fallback": {
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          "status": "accepted",
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      "generated_at": "2026-11-13T15:05:19.464815Z",
      "notes": "Required paper picks: up to three distinct fixtures, ranked by this bot's forecast return at listed odds; 1u each subject to available funds. Selections are assigned by the shared commissioner rule, not a positive-value claim.",
      "selection_basis": "required-ranked-paper"
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  }
}